Silver price (XAG/USD) retreats to near $66.30 in the European trading session on Friday after posting a fresh five-day high near $68.00. The white metal comes under pressure ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

According to TD Securities, the US labour market is set for a partial recovery in August, with the bank forecasting that “August NFP [will] rebound to 95k after July posted a decline of 23k.” The firm also expects limited movement in joblessness, noting that “the UE rate likely went sideways at 4.1% with balanced risks.”

Investors will closely track the US NFP data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In TD’s view, a modestly hawkish employment report will reaffirm the Fed’s attention on inflation, but it will be by itself unlikely to push the Committee towards hikes, suggesting that even a stronger print would not materially alter the current policy stance.

Meanwhile, traders have diminished Fed interest rate expectations after comments from Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday, in which he said that recent data shows signs of disinflation.

Analysts at Commerzbank also said that lingering uncertainty over the US rate outlook was “underscored yesterday by comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller,” who, in their words, signalled that “a rate hike is by no means necessary.” They add that Waller “also confirmed what we have been arguing: next week’s inflation data are likely to be the key input for the Fed’s upcoming policy decision,” a shift in emphasis that, in their view, “further [reduces] the significance of today’s employment report.”

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.73, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at roughly $65.71. The metal is advancing within an uptrend structure, with price comfortably supported by this short-term EMA, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 suggests moderate bullish momentum without yet signaling overbought conditions.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA near $65.71, where a break would expose the white metal to a deeper correction. Looking up, the August high at $71.12 is the key hurdle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver price (XAG/USD) struggles to extend Wednesday’s strong recovery move above $66.25 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal could remain sideways as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be released on Friday.

US jobs rebound seen keeping Fed on hold despite hawkish risks

According to TD Securities, August Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to “rebound to 95k after July posted a decline of 23k,” with the firm cautioning that “risks to our payrolls forecasts appear hawkish, and we would not rule out an outsized positive surprise.” The unemployment rate is projected to have “gone sideways at 4.1% with balanced risks,” suggesting only limited change in headline labour market conditions.

Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP report as it is expected to influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

Analysts at TD say that “a modestly hawkish employment report will reaffirm the Fed’s attention on inflation, but it will be by itself unlikely to push the Committee towards hikes,” as they “continue to expect that inflation data can print modestly, allowing the Fed to keep rates on hold for now.”

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a two-in-three chance that the Fed will increase interest rates in the September policy meeting.

Elsewhere, higher oil prices due to restricted energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost one-fifth of global energy supply, could fizzle out the recovery move in the Silver price.

Higher oil prices prompt global inflation expectations, a scenario that increases fears of interest rate hikes from central banks. Such a case bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver.

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.00. The pair holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65.51, keeping the near-term bias constructive as price extends its recovery from the mid-$50s area.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at 53.04 sits in neutral territory but leans higher, which suggests buyers still have the upper hand without the market being overstretched.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA at $65.51, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract fresh demand. Looking up, the August high near $71 is expected to remain a key barrier.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

XAU/USD Current Price: $4,492

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller cooled hopes for a September interest rate hike.
• The United States will publish the August Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
• XAU/USD is up for a second consecutive day; bulls regained near-term control.

The US Dollar (USD) remains under selling pressure on Thursday, as investors juggle with risk-related headlines and little guidance from macroeconomic data. Spot Gold benefited from broad USD weakness and surpassed the $4,500 level during American trading hours.

The USD traded with a firmer tone at the beginning of the week after the United States (US) and Iran resumed hostilities, sending Oil prices sharply up and hence raising concerns about mounting inflationary pressures. The Greenback, however, came under pressure mid-week amid speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened in the currency market to prevent the Japanese Yen (JPY) from falling further.

A better market mood kept the USD pressured despite the Middle East conflict. On the one hand, speculative interest welcomed headlines indicating that Russian President Vladimir Putin said there is a chance for constructive peace talks with Ukraine.

Finally, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller cooled the odds for a September rate hike, saying that officials can “wait one meeting,” as long as there are no surprises from upcoming inflation data, adding that a 25 bps hike won’t bring inflation back to 2%.

Data that can shape the upcoming Fed’s decision is around the corner: On Friday, the US will publish the August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, a picture of the situation in the labor market, while next week, the country will unveil the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the same month.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook:

In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD turned bullish as it moved above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,397.48, the 100-period SMA at $4,481.65, and the 200-period SMA at $4,315.95. The moving averages are pretty much horizontal, failing to provide clear directional clues. Still, the price holding above them skews the risk to the upside. Technical indicators, in the meantime, gain upward traction above their midlines, maintaining nice vertical slopes, a sign of strong buying interest.

The XAU/USD pair daily chart keeps a constructive near-term tone as it holds above both the 20-day SMA at $4,462.49 and the 100-day SMA at $4,358.36. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator ticks north at around 56, while the Momentum indicator also holds in positive territory, suggesting steady, rather than exuberant, upside pressure.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-period SMA at $4,481.65, followed by the 20-period SMA at $4,397.48 and then the 200-period SMA near $4,315.95. On the topside, the 200-day SMA at $4,533.34 forms the next significant resistance, and a sustained break above this barrier would likely open the door to further gains.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading higher on Thursday, returning to levels above $4.400 after bouncing from three-week lows near $4,280 on Wednesday. The precious metal is drawing support from a weaker USD, as ADP employment data disappointed and New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams tamed rate hike expectations, but Fed tightening bets remain solid, and bulls are likely to face significant resistance at $4,470.

US Data released on Wednesday revealed that private employment rose 38K in August, the weakest reading since January and well below the 47K increase expected. 

Apart from that, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said that rising bond yields are due to a solid economy, rather than to inflation fears, and suggested that the central bank should “wait and see” before taking decisions on interest rates. This cooled hopes of an immediate rate hike, although futures markets are still pricing a 60% chance of a 25 basis point hike at September’s meeting, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Technical Analysis: Gold bulls have significant resistance ahead

XAU/USD has bounced up from lows and is trading returning to the $4,430 area, but keeps a mildly bearish near‑term tone following an impulsive reversal from last week’s highs near $4,700. Momentum indicators are in neutral territory, with the daily Relative Strength Index (14) at 52 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero, which shows that the bullish impulse is fragile.

Gold bulls are likely to be tested at the August 31 high, near $4,470, and, above here at the key 200‑day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,533, which closes the path to last week’s high, at $4,690. On the downside, a break of the August 14 low in the $4,310 area confirms a “Head and Shoulders” pattern, and adds pressure towards the August 6 low of $4,220 and the late July lows near $4,000.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)