Silver Tracks Gold, Faces Selling Pressure

Silver (XAG/USD) mirrored the weakness in gold, trading at $33.44 after touching an intraday low of $33.37. The broader risk-on tone, fueled by upbeat U.S. economic figures and reduced trade friction, contributed to the decline.

Both metals remain under pressure as investors tilt toward equities and higher-yielding assets.

Stronger U.S. Data Boosts Dollar, Fed Dovishness Cushions Gold

U.S. macro data released Thursday showed notable strength. Weekly jobless claims came in at 222,000, reflecting a still-resilient labor market. March durable goods orders surged 9.2%—driven by a third consecutive 27% rise in transportation equipment—beating the 2% forecast handily.

This bolstered the U.S. dollar, further weighing on gold. However, dovish commentary from Fed officials provided a partial buffer.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said rate cuts could begin as early as June, while Governor Waller acknowledged a need to ease policy if tariffs begin harming employment. Markets now price in up to three rate cuts by year-end.

Geopolitical Tensions Offer Safe-Haven Floor

Despite the pullback, geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin gold. A missile strike in Kyiv—reportedly one of the deadliest since the start of the conflict—killed at least 12 people, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in gold prices.

Natural gas price suffered new negative pressures by stochastic approach from 20 level, which forces it to reach below the extra support at $3.610, forming new bearish wave to settle near $3.500 as appears in the above image.

In spite of the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels, but the continuation of the negative pressures and forming extra barrier at $3.770, so these factors supports the bearish bias dominance in the current period, to expect suffering new losses by reaching $3.380 reaching the moving average 55 near $3.230.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.380 and $3.700

Trend forecast: Bearish

Downward Pressure Remains

Despite finding support yesterday at the AVWAP, downward pressure remains. Prior support from the January swing low at $2.99 was tested today as resistance, as the high for the day was at $2.98. Moreover, at the time of this writing, natural gas is trading below Thursday’s closing price of $2.94 and it may end the day in a similar position. Each is a bearish sign.

Decline Stalls After 41.7% Drop

Nevertheless, the bearish correction has seen the price of natural gas fall by $2.04 or 41.7% from the recent trend high of $4.90. The decline shows symmetry on a percentage basis with the earlier bearish correction that started following the June 2024 swing high at $3.16. Natural gas declined following that high and eventually established a higher swing low in August.

That low provided the second point to draw a rising trendline across support, which was used to generate the top line of a bullish trend channel. Note that the 2024 decline was the largest since the 2024 bottom, until now. Once there is symmetry in price between swings, there is the potential for support to be seen and possibly the completion of the correction.

Lower Support at $2.79

Furthermore, since the lower line of the trend channel has not been tested as support, while the top line shows resistance a few times recently, there is a chance that the lower line will be tested before the bearish correction is complete. But that is not much lower than current prices. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level is at $2.79 and the 127.2% projection for a falling ABCD pattern points to $2.77. Alternatively, the current low continues to hold and a one-day bullish reversal triggers on a move above today’s high. If the 200-Day MA, now at $3.08, is subsequently reclaimed, a bottom may be established.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price falls sharply to near $33.00 on hopes of de-escalation in Sino-US trade war.
• China considers pausing tariffs on some US imports.
• Beijing denies any economic and trade talks with the US.

Silver price (XAG/USD) plunges more than 1.5% to near $33.00 during North American trading hours on Friday. The white metal falls sharply from its three-week high of $33.70 posted earlier in the day. The asset weakens as investors have become increasingly confident that the United States (US) and China will make a deal sooner.

Hopes of a truce on a trade war between the world’s two largest powerhouses have increased as China has stated that it is considering suspending additional tariffs on imports of medical equipment and some industrial chemicals from the US, Bloomberg reported.

Investors see the scenario as favorable for the global economic outlook. Theoretically, improving global economic prospects diminish the demand of safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) has bounced back after a sharp corrective move on Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers to near 99.75.

However, contradictory statements from US President Donald Trump and China over whether both nations have come on the table or not for negotiating trade deals are expected to keep investors on the sidelines. Trump has been stating that discussion between Washington and Beijing on trade are going well, however, China has denied these remarks, saying that there has not been any “economic and trade negotiations between China and the US”.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price falls sharply after posting a fresh three-week high around $33.70. However, the near-term outlook of the white metal remains bullish as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $32.60.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to break above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI will break above that level.

Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.

Silver daily chart

Bullish Momentum Unsustainable

Technically, there has been limited damage done to the bull trend so far, but there are initial signs that at least an interim high may have been reached and therefore a deeper or longer correction may have begun. The recent rapid rise in the slope of the trend is one example of how the gold rally may have reached exhaustion now that a one-day bearish signal has been confirmed. Trend indicators such as rising support trendlines and the increasing spread between the 200-Day MA (blue), 50-Day MA (orange), and 20-Day MA (purple), reflect the growing bullish momentum.

Bearish Signs Remain

A decline below today’s low of $3,287 will give a bearish signal and put this week’s low at risk of failing. However, the first key support zone looks to be from $3,246 to $3,228, consisting of a prior trend high and 50% retracement, respectively. The top blue rising trend channel line previously represented resistance and now support since it was exceeded two weeks ago is also around that price area. Subsequently, a decline below the 50% retracement level puts gold in a position to test the next lower potential support zone around a prior trend high and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,164.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Is Technical Pressure Signaling a Deeper Pullback?

The daily chart suggests ample room for additional downside movement, with the next significant support level marked at $2.199. Immediate resistance is seen at the 61.8% short-term retracement level of $2.995. A break above this could spark short-covering activity, but upside momentum would likely stall near the 50% retracement at $3.361. Until a clear reversal forms, price action remains vulnerable to further selling.

How Did the Latest EIA Report Rattle the Market?

Thursday’s EIA report fueled selling after a much larger-than-expected storage build. Inventories for the week ended April 18 surged by +88 Bcf, sharply above the consensus estimate of +75 Bcf and the five-year average build of +58 Bcf. This sizable increase came even as total stocks remain -20.2% lower year-over-year and -2.3% below the five-year seasonal average, underscoring tight overall supply but overshadowed by the near-term bearish build.

Could Renewable Energy Trends Keep a Lid on Prices?

Strong wind and solar generation were cited as major factors behind the weak drawdown in natural gas inventories. As renewable output expands, natural gas demand for power generation continues to face intermittent headwinds, particularly during mild weather periods. This dynamic weighed heavily on sentiment after the bearish EIA miss.

What Role Is Weather Playing in Suppressing Demand?

Weather forecasts through April 30 project near-ideal conditions across most of the U.S., with highs ranging from the 60s to 80s, and localized 90s across the southern states. With only light to very light national demand expected, near-term fundamentals offer little support to prices. Mild conditions reduce both heating and cooling loads, directly limiting natural gas consumption.

Market Forecast: Bearish Bias Prevails

Given the combination of bearish EIA data, weak weather-driven demand, strong renewable generation, and bearish technical signals, the short-term outlook for natural gas remains bearish. Traders should watch the $2.906 technical level closely, but a failure to hold above it opens the door for a deeper correction toward $2.199 support.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

The EURJPY pair provided new negative closes below the moving average 55 at 161.20 level, which forces it to return to settle within the bearish channel’s levels, to begin targeting some of the negative stations by reaching 159.60.

The contradiction between the main indicators might force the price to form mixed waves, but the chances of activating the bearish track will remain valid, if the trading settled below the bearish channel’s resistance at 160.75, to expect forming an initial negative target at 158.90 level, reaching 157.40 in the near period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 158.90 and 161.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Gold price declined in its last intraday trading, to surpass the support of its EMA50, its positive chances with the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), to lean on a minor bullish bias line on the short-term basis, accompanied by its stability at the key support level at$3,290.

Therefore, the stability of the support at $3,290 makes our expectations prefer moving upside in the gold price’s upcoming intraday trading, to target the resistance $3,400, while breaking this support will change our overview to the negativity to target the support level at$3,200.

The expected trading range for today is between $3,255 support and $3,365 resistance

Today’s forecast: Neutral

Crude oil prices rose slightly in its recent intraday trading, taking advantage of the temporary positive momentum that is caused by its stability above EMA50, to compensate for some of its previous losses.

Despite this intraday rise, the negative pressures remain valid, due to the price affection by the formed negative rising wedge pattern on the short- term basis, besides the emergence of the negative overlapping signals on (RSI), after entering overbought areas, which reinforces the possibilities of renewing the selling pressures.

Therefore, our expectations suggest (crude oil) decline in its upcoming intraday trading, if it remains stable below $63.20, to target the support at $61.50, preparing to break below it.

The expected trading range is between $64.40 support and $66.90 resistance.

Today’s forecast: Bearish

• Silver eases from a three-week high retested earlier this Friday.
• The setup supports prospects for the emergence of dip-buyers.
• A break below the $32.00 mark might negate the positive bias.

Silver (XAG/USD) edges lower after testing the three-week top during the Asian session on Friday and currently trades around the mid-$33.00s, down 0.30% for the day. The technical setup, however, warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful depreciating move.

This week’s breakout above the $33.00 round figure, representing the top end of a multi-day-old range and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April downfall, was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and are still far from being in the overbought territory. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside.

Hence, any subsequent slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the $33.00 hurdle breakpoint, now turned support. A convincing break below the said handle might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAG/USD further toward the $32.40 support en route to the $32.10-$32.00 area. Some follow-through selling will suggest that the recent recovery from the $28.00 mark, or the year-to-date low, has run out of steam.

On the flip side, the $33.70 area now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle, above which the XAG/USD could aim to reclaim the $34.00 mark. The momentum could extend further towards the $34.30 intermediate resistance en route to the next relevant barrier near the $34.55-$34.60 region, or the highest level since October 2024 touched last month. The white metal could eventually aim to conquer the $35.00 psychological mark.

Silver 4-hour chart