The EURJPY pair confirmed its surrender to the bearish corrective bias by reaching below 184.10 level, reaching the next target in the previous report at 183.40, to form a strong obstacle against the negative attempts.

The price is affected by sideways bias dominance due to its confinement between the barrier at 184.10 level, and forming a strong support base at 183.40 level, note that providing bullish momentum that might reinforce the chances of surpassing 184.10 level, to confirm its readiness to activate the bullish trend by its rally towards 184.85, while breaking the support will open the way for targeting new corrective stations that begin at 182.65.

The expected trading range for today is between 183.40 and 184.10

Trend forecast: Bullish

New York, Jan 18, 2026, 12:27 EST — The market has closed.

• Henry Hub February futures closed 2.5 cents lower at $3.103 per mmBtu on Friday, according to CME data.
• A winter storm is driving colder air through the Midwest and East, maintaining strong heating demand. (AP News)
• The U.S. stock market will be closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. CME confirmed it won’t release settlement prices on that date. (Intercontinental Exchange)

U.S. natural gas futures slipped Friday as traders turned their focus back to weather risks ahead of the long weekend.

The front-month Henry Hub contract closed at $3.103 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), slipping 2.5 cents. According to CME’s daily bulletin, it swung between $3.020 and $3.230 during the session.

Monday’s U.S. holiday will thin liquidity, which matters since gas prices often shift sharply on forecast updates when heating demand is the key factor.

The upcoming session falls amid a biting cold snap hitting sections of the United States. A winter storm is sparking hazardous wind chills and snow threats stretching from the Midwest to the East Coast, the National Weather Service warned, according to The Associated Press. (AP News)

Overseas demand is playing a role. Spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices in Asia hit a six-week peak this week, driven by colder weather forecasts that boosted buying, Reuters reported. “The weather outlook across Northeast Asia and Europe has turned colder week-on-week,” said Kesher Sumeet, senior LNG analyst at Energy Aspects. (Reuters)

Heating degree days (HDDs), which increase as temperatures drop and heating demand grows, are expected to stay above average in Northeast Asia later this January, Sumeet said. (Reuters)

European delivered LNG benchmarks climbed on expectations of colder weather and quicker storage withdrawals. “European delivered prices have risen sharply this week for the first quarter,” said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus. (Reuters)

U.S.-listed United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), following front-month gas futures, ended Friday at $10.33, rising 0.29%, according to Nasdaq data. (Nasdaq)

Storage remains a key metric for traders trying to validate weather-related swings. On Jan. 15, the Energy Information Administration reported that working gas in storage was 3,185 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of Jan. 9. That’s a decline of 71 Bcf from the previous week but still above the five-year average. (EIA Information Releases)

A major concern for bulls is the potential fading of the cold signal. Forecasts often shift rapidly in late January, and a sudden warm-up could reduce heating demand, even as supply and storage stay relatively ample compared to recent levels. (EIA Information Releases)

Markets are also contending with holiday scheduling. CME announced it won’t calculate or release settlement prices this Monday. (CME Group)

Coming soon: revised U.S. temperature forecasts for late January and the next EIA weekly storage report, set for Jan. 22 at 10:30 a.m. ET. (EIA Information Releases)

Crude oil prices are in retreat after rising on the possibility of U.S. strikes on Iran. Before the retreat, however, Brent crude and WTI had jumped to the highest in months, countering bearish forecasts for the year—and tearing traders between geopolitics and fundamentals.

In fundamentals, the majority of observers and forecasters are unanimous that the supply of crude oil is substantially higher than demand. In fact, Goldman Sachs recently revised its price predictions for 2026, saying it now expected Brent crude to go even lower after shedding about a fifth of its value last year.

“Rising global oil stocks and our forecast of a 2.3mb/d surplus in 2026 suggest that rebalancing the market likely requires lower oil prices in 2026 to slow down non-OPEC supply growth and support solid demand growth, barring large supply disruptions or OPEC production cuts,” Goldman said earlier this week—even though protests in Iran were already making headlines and pushing the benchmarks higher.

On the other hand, the effective takeover by the United States of Venezuela’s oil industry has had an understandably bearish effect on prices. This week, a Washington official told media that the U.S. has sold the first batch of Venezuelan crude for $500 million, and more sales would follow. In terms of fundamentals, this strengthens the case for a bearish mood. However, statements by oil industry executives urging caution about the possibility of a quick turnaround in Venezuelan oil production have had a restraining effect on that mood.

Meanwhile, drone strikes on three tankers in the Black Sea fueled a new bout of supply disruption concern, to add to expectations of possible disruption in Iranian oil flows abroad. A Reuters report cited an unnamed source as saying Kazakhstan had suffered a 35% drop in its oil output over the first two weeks of January because of attacks that also included strikes on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium by Ukrainian forces. Kazakhstan has called on the United States and the European Union to help secure oil transport in the Black Sea.

Speaking of the European Union, reports emerged this week saying Brussels was planning a further cut in its price cap for Russian oil in a bid to reduce Russia’s oil revenues by tying Western insurance coverage to the price cap. The new level of the price cap will be set at $44.10 per barrel from next month. So far, the price caps have failed to cause much pain to the Russian budget, but the EU considers them a working mechanism to hurt Russia’s economy in a bid to make it withdraw from Ukraine.

Perhaps the most bullish development for oil from the past few days was the signal, from President Donald Trump, that he was not excluding the possibility of a military strike against Iran. That signal, however, has been quite quickly replaced by observations by the U.S. president that the Iranian government was easing its crackdown on the protesters, reducing the likelihood of a military strike. That’s when oil’s retreat began and continues today, in evidence that the glut narrative holds sway over the oil market.

Expectations of further growth in oil production remain dominant on that market, with forecasters such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency both predicting further supply growth, even as OPEC pauses its unwinding of production cuts implemented back in 2022 to prop up prices. Even so, shale drillers are signaling they would not be happy with WTI closer to $50 than to $60, and production growth is slowing. Indeed, the EIA forecast in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that U.S. oil production will flatten this year, even inch down and extend that decline into 2027.

This has been ignored by the oil market so far, even though U.S. oil production has been the main driver behind bearish market predictions thanks to its fast and significant growth. That growth is now gone but everyone seems to be ignoring the fact in the firm belief there is already too much oil in the world—and the data seems to support this, with media citing a Kpler calculation there were some 1.3 billion barrels of crude on water in December, which was the highest since 2020 and the pandemic lockdowns.

Reuters’ Ron Bousso, however, noted in a recent column that a quarter of that oil comes from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela—the sanctioned producers. That oil takes longer to find buyers because of the sanctions but it does find buyers, Bousso pointed out. This suggests the number of barrels on tankers is not necessarily the most accurate indication of a physical glut, especially in light of recently released Chinese import data, showing oil imports into the country hit a record both in December and in 2025 as a whole. Predicting oil prices is notoriously unreliable. These days it is even more unreliable than usual, it seems, as conflicting narratives and agendas keep clashing, making the oil market a confusing place to be.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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This is bullish behavior, as that price zone is the first anticipated support area for gold, and support has been seen. The market is confirming significance of the 10-day indicator and if gold remains above that line, the short-term trend is bullish. Friday’s low provides a possible minor swing low if it is sustained, and key short-term support along with the 10-day line.

Upside Breakout Levels and Near-Term Resistance Zone

On the upside, a decisive breakout above the record high of $4,643 is needed to trigger a continuation. However, gold will then quickly approach a potential resistance zone from $4,664 to $4,721. There are four indicators marking that range as a potential resistance zone. Given confirmation of strength with a bounce off the 10-day average on a pullback following a new all time high, gold could quickly push through that price zone and head towards a 78.6% projected measured move at $4,760.

Fibonacci Confluence Highlights Upper Resistance Risk

The top of the range, however, shows minor confluence with two indicators and therefore possibly a more significance resistance area. A 432.6% (261.8% + 161.8%) is at $4,713, and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the December decline is at $4,721. The first 127.2% extended target from December was near the trend high at $4,625 and shows a relationship with the ratios. The recognition of the first retracement ratio target enhances the chance that the higher 161.8% price area is reached as well.

Weekly Momentum Slows but Bull Trend Remains Intact

Momentum shows slowing somewhat on the weekly chart, as gold is set to close near or below the mid-point of the week’s range, which was $4,578. A stronger closing price in the upper half of the week’s range would show greater control by buyers and therefore increase confidence that bullish momentum may dominate once again. This week began with a new all time high on Monday, followed by a stall.

Nonetheless, this week’s breakout confirms on a weekly basis with a closing above the prior high of $4,550. Whether bullish momentum shows soon or after some consolidation, the bull trend remains solid if gold remains above the 20-day average, now at $4,466.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

The EURJPY pair confirmed its surrender to the bearish corrective bias by reaching below 184.10 level, reaching the next target in the previous report at 183.40, to form a strong obstacle against the negative attempts.

The price is affected by sideways bias dominance due to its confinement between the barrier at 184.10 level, and forming a strong support base at 183.40 level, note that providing bullish momentum that might reinforce the chances of surpassing 184.10 level, to confirm its readiness to activate the bullish trend by its rally towards 184.85, while breaking the support will open the way for targeting new corrective stations that begin at 182.65.

The expected trading range for today is between 183.40 and 184.10

Trend forecast: Bullish