Bullish Trend Structure Remains Intact

Gold remains clearly bullish, with a bounce off the 10-day average providing a short-term indication that the buyers remain in charge. Key support is at the recent low of $4,274 as it generated a higher swing low. Remaining above the 10-day line will show sustained short-term strength but a pullback to potential support near the 20-day average, currently at $4,377, would not change the bullish posture. It is just that holding above the 10-day average shows slightly more strength.

Rising 20-Day Average Signals Improving Demand

The rising 20-day average is starting to breach the prior trend high of $4,381. That behavior shows improving underlying demand. Once the 20-day line reaches price again, volatility should improve with an upside continuation above the high of $4,500. Of course, this only applies if the 20-day line touches price before the breakout. An upside breakout can also occur before the average touches price. Gold should continue to hold above dynamic support near the 20-day line if it is to have a chance at a new record high above $4,550.

Monthly Candlestick Warns of Possible Near-Term Consolidation

Despite the bullish trend structure, a potential monthly bearish shooting star candlestick pattern completed in December. Even though the pattern is invalid until there is a breakdown below December’s low of $4,164, it reflects the potential for downward pressure as gold attempts to strengthen in January. A similar situation in the months of October and November resulted in an upside resolution as the monthly pattern never validated with a breakdown. October ended with a shooting star monthly pattern, followed by an inside month in November. Therefore, further short-term consolidation could occur before momentum kicks in to lead gold to a new record high.

If you’d like to know more about what drives gold and silver prices, please visit our educational area.

New York, January 8, 2026, 10:41 EST — Regular session

• Natural gas futures fell after weekly U.S. storage data, tugging at gas-linked stocks
• U.S. producer EQT and Marcellus peers edged lower; gas-tracking ETFs moved more
• Traders now watch late-January weather shifts and the next storage report, while investors eye February earnings

Shares of EQT Corp slipped on Thursday as the natural gas price turned lower after a government storage report. EQT was down 1.1% at $53.88, while Henry Hub natural gas futures fell 2.7% to $3.431 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by mid-morning.

The weekly storage figure is the market’s gut check in winter. It feeds straight into expectations for how tight supply will look if cold snaps arrive, or don’t.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 119-billion-cubic-foot (Bcf) withdrawal for the week ended Jan. 2, leaving working gas in storage at 3,256 Bcf. That put inventories about 1% above the five-year (2021–25) average, and the agency’s next report is due Jan. 15.

The reversal came a day after the February contract jumped, with the front month settling at $3.525 on Wednesday. Commodity Weather Group pointed to a colder window around Jan. 17-21 across the Midwest and East, a forecast that helped spark short covering earlier in the week. Sprague Energy

Other Appalachia-focused names eased alongside. Antero Resources fell 0.8% and Range Resources dropped 1.3%, while the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) — an exchange-traded fund that tracks near-term gas futures — slid 3.3%.

Moves were sharper in leveraged products. ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (BOIL), which targets twice the daily move in gas futures, fell 5.1%, while the inverse ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (KOLD) rose 5.4%.

But the weather trade cuts both ways, and it can turn fast when forecasts shift. On the chart, some traders are watching support near $3.43 and resistance around $3.60 in the February contract.

For EQT investors, the next company catalyst is earnings: MarketWatch’s calendar shows the producer is due to report on Feb. 18.

February WTI crude oil (CLG26) today is up +0.99 (+1.77%), and February RBOB gasoline (RBG26) is up +0.0435 (+2.57%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices are sharply higher after today’s better-than-expected US economic news shows strength in energy demand. Also, the upcoming annual rebalancing of commodity indexes will see buying of oil contracts, a bullish factor for crude. On the negative side is today’s rally in the dollar index to a 4-week high and the negative carryover from Wednesday, after the US lifted some sanctions on Venezuelan crude exports and President Trump said Venezuela’s interim authorities agreed to give up as many as 50 million bbl of “high-quality sanctioned oil” to the US.

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Crude prices are moving higher today amid expectations of buying crude futures contracts for the annual rebalancing of commodity indexes. Citigroup projects that the BCOM and S&P GSCI indexes, the two largest commodity indexes, will see inflows of $2.2 billion in futures contracts over the next week to rebalance the indexes.

Today’s better-than-expected US economic news is positive for energy demand and crude prices. Dec Challenger job cuts fell -8.3% y/y to 35,553, a 17-month low, and weekly initial unemployment claims rose +8,000 to 208,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 212,000. Also, Q3 nonfarm productivity rose +4.9%, close to expectations of +5.0% and the biggest increase in 2 years.

Crude prices came under pressure on Wednesday when the US Energy Department said that it would begin selectively rolling back sanctions to enable the transport and sale of Venezuelan crude and oil products to global markets, potentially boosting global oil supplies. Venezuela is currently the twelfth largest crude producer in OPEC.

Concerns about energy demand are negative for crude prices after Saudi Arabia on Monday cut the price of its Arab Light crude for February delivery to customers for a third month.

Morgan Stanley predicted that a global oil market surplus is likely to expand further and peak mid-year, pressuring prices, as it cut its crude price forecast for Q1 to $57.50/bbl from a prior forecast of $60/bbl, and cut its Q2 crude price forecast to $55/bbl from $60/bbl.

Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days fell -3.4% w/w to 119.35 million bbl in the week ended January 2.

Strength in Chinese crude demand is supportive for prices. According to Kpler data, China’s crude imports in December are set to increase by 10% m/m to a record 12.2 million bpd as it rebuilds its crude inventories.

Crude garnered support after OPEC+ on Sunday said it would stick to its plan to pause production increases in Q1 of 2026. OPEC+ at its November 2025 meeting announced that members would raise production by +137,000 bpd in December, but will then pause the production hikes in Q1-2026 due to the emerging global oil surplus. The IEA in mid-October forecasted a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026. OPEC+ is trying to restore all of the 2.2 million bpd production cut it made in early 2024, but still has another 1.2 million bpd of production left to restore. OPEC’s December crude production rose by +40,000 bpd to 29.03 million bpd.

Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have targeted at least 28 Russian refineries over the past four months, limiting Russia’s crude oil export capabilities and reducing global oil supplies. Also, since the end of November, Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian tankers, with at least six tankers attacked by drones and missiles in the Baltic Sea. In addition, new US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure, and tankers have curbed Russian oil exports.

Last month, the IEA projected that the world crude surplus will widen to a record 3.815 million bpd in 2026 from a 4-year high of over 2.0 million bpd in 2025.

Last month, OPEC revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, as US production exceeded expectations and OPEC also ramped up crude output. OPEC said it now sees a 500,000 bpd surplus in global oil markets in Q3, versus the previous month’s estimate for a -400,000 bpd deficit. Also, the EIA raised its 2025 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd from 13.53 million bpd last month.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of January 2 were -4.1% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were +1.6% above the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -3.1% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending January 2 was down -0.1% w/w to 13.811 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd from the week of November 7.

Baker Hughes reported last Tuesday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended January 2 rose by +3 rigs to 412 rigs, recovering from the 4.25-year low of 406 rigs posted in the week ended December 19. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

Select market data provided by ICE Data Services. Select reference data provided by FactSet. Copyright © 2026 FactSet Research Systems Inc.Copyright © 2026, American Bankers Association. CUSIP Database provided by FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. SEC fillings and other documents provided by Quartr.© 2026 TradingView, Inc.

NEW YORK, Jan 8, 2026, 06:56 EST — Premarket

The United States Natural Gas Fund was flat at $11.78 in premarket trade, after jumping 4.4% on Wednesday. The ETF fell 3.0% on Tuesday as the gas market swung back and forth early in the new year. StockAnalysis

Benchmark Henry Hub natural gas was at $3.57 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), up 1.4% early Thursday, after trading between $3.55 and $3.63. The move comes with traders focused on fresh storage data rather than the last round of weather models. Businessinsider

UNG is built to mirror the day-to-day percentage moves in Henry Hub prices by holding short-dated natural gas futures, mainly on NYMEX and ICE. That structure can track fast moves closely, but it also means investors can get whipsawed when the fund rolls from one contract to the next.

Sprague Energy said the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly storage report due later Thursday is expected to show a 108 billion cubic feet (Bcf) withdrawal for the week ended Jan. 2, versus a 40 Bcf pull a year ago and a five-year average draw of 66 Bcf. The firm also noted the February NYMEX contract settled at $3.350 on Tuesday after trading as low as $3.324. Sprague Energy

East Daley Analytics put the market’s expected withdrawal a bit higher, at 114 Bcf, and said that would leave inventories slightly above the newly recalculated five-year average while still below last year’s levels. The firm also flagged a dip in pipeline-sample volumes to an average 69.3 Bcf per day (bcfd) for the week ended Jan. 4, down 1.5% from the prior week. East Daley

The setup still looks two-sided. “Physical natural gas prices are crashing, with Henry Hub spot prices trading at a mere $2.86 per MMBtu,” Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at EBW Analytics Group, wrote in a report carried by Rigzone, while adding that “weather remains king.” Rubin also pointed to record LNG feedgas of 19.9 bcfd as a support point, but warned the February contract could slide toward $3.25 if warmth sticks. Rigzone

Moves in gas-linked equities were modest in early U.S. trading: EQT was up about 2%, Antero Resources gained about 1.8%, and LNG exporter Cheniere Energy added roughly 0.7%. Traders often treat the group as a higher-beta read on the same weather-and-storage tape that drives futures and UNG.

Weather remains the biggest unknown because it can change demand faster than production can. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said its Jan. 13–17 outlook starts with above-normal warmth across much of the Lower 48 before a colder trend shows up late in the period, a shift that can still leave net heating demand hard to pin down. Climate Prediction Center

Executive Summary

The global coffee market experienced dynamic shifts across 2025, influenced by weather disruptions in major producing regions, fluctuating global demand, evolving trade policies, and rising production costs. For the quarter ending September 2025, North America and Europe saw moderate to strong upward price trends driven by tight supplies from Brazil and Vietnam, while Asia-Pacific markets, particularly Vietnam, recorded softer prices due to abundant harvests and steady domestic supply. South America, especially Brazil, exhibited price volatility influenced by harvest cycles, regulatory shifts, and currency fluctuations.

The market’s trajectory reflects ongoing sensitivity to climatic events, logistics challenges, and macroeconomic factors. Price forecasts for Q4 2025 indicate a continued upward bias in North America and Europe, whereas APAC markets are expected to remain stable, with regional factors such as policy adjustments and export demand shaping pricing dynamics. Understanding these trends is critical for buyers, roasters, and traders seeking to navigate global supply chains efficiently.

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Introduction

Coffee remains one of the most widely consumed commodities globally, with complex pricing dynamics driven by supply-demand imbalances, production costs, trade flows, and consumer behavior. The global coffee market, spanning Arabica and Robusta varieties, reflects regional disparities in supply, climate impact, and consumer preferences.

In 2025, the market has been shaped by several pivotal factors: adverse weather events in key producing countries, policy and trade uncertainties, evolving consumer trends toward specialty and sustainable brews, and rising production and logistics costs. These factors have led to volatility in both spot and futures prices, compelling buyers to strategically manage procurement, anticipate cost trends, and monitor supply disruptions.

This article provides a detailed PR-style overview of coffee price movements and forecasts across global regions-North America, APAC, and Europe-covering quarterly changes, production costs, procurement behavior, logistics, and trade-flow impacts, with historical context from previous quarters.

Global Coffee Price Overview

Global coffee prices have reflected the tension between tightening supply in key producing regions and varying demand across consumer markets. Arabica, the premium variety, has been particularly sensitive to adverse weather in Brazil and Colombia, while Robusta, largely consumed in Asia and industrial blends, experienced price moderation in certain APAC regions amid robust harvests.

Global supply constraints in Brazil and Vietnam contributed to rising spot prices in North America and Europe.

APAC supply abundance, especially in Vietnam, has softened prices, though currency fluctuations, logistics costs, and policy shifts influenced export margins.

Cost pressures, including labor, transportation, fertilizer, and energy expenses, have elevated production costs across major exporting countries, impacting margins for roasters and distributors globally.

Spot prices in Q3 2025 have generally trended upward in North America and Europe, while APAC markets, particularly Vietnam, have experienced price moderation due to ample harvests. The dynamics of global trade, including regulatory and tariff impacts, continue to influence price discovery and procurement behavior.

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Regional Analysis

North America

Quarterly Price Movements

The North American Coffee Price Index exhibited a moderate upward trend during Q3 2025. Specialty coffee brands faced increasing cost pressures, while commercial blends remained relatively stable. Robusta prices, though comparatively lower, also saw upward movement, reflecting higher demand for cost-effective blends.

September 2025 highlights:

Price increases were driven primarily by global supply disruptions, particularly in Brazil and Indonesia, where adverse weather and El Niño effects reduced output.

Lower inventories and higher import costs pushed up spot prices across North American markets.

Production and Cost Trends

Production costs remained elevated due to rising labor, transportation, and logistics expenses in key exporting regions.

North American roasters and distributors partially passed these higher costs onto consumers, impacting retail prices, especially for specialty brews.

Demand and Procurement Behavior

Consumer demand remained strong, supported by seasonal consumption, café expansion, and rising interest in premium and specialty coffee.

Price sensitivity, particularly among lower-income segments, may temper growth, prompting retailers to adjust pricing strategies to balance margins with affordability.

Logistics and Trade-Flow Impacts

Higher freight costs and potential weather-related supply disruptions have created near-term procurement risks.

Forward buying and strategic inventory management have become key tools for buyers to mitigate volatility and ensure consistent supply.

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Historical Context

Q2 2025: Prices softened due to improved harvests in Brazil and Vietnam, easing futures markets and dampening speculative rallies.

Q1 2025: Constrained imports from Brazil and Colombia, coupled with adverse weather, created tight supply conditions and elevated prices.

Q4 2024: A severe drought in Brazil and weather disruptions in Colombia contributed to a sharp price increase in North America.

Asia-Pacific (APAC)

Quarterly Price Movements

The APAC Coffee Price Index, particularly in Vietnam, fell by 7.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025, with the average coffee price approximately USD 4,212/MT. Spot prices softened as regional supplies remained abundant and demand cooled.

September 2025 highlights:

Favorable monsoon conditions and larger harvests in Vietnam contributed to increased supply and exerted downward pressure on prices.

Export activity remained robust, though domestic consumption showed signs of softening.

Currency volatility and rising freight costs influenced export margins, elevating perceived price risks for buyers.

Production and Cost Trends

Producers faced pressure from rising energy, fertilizer, and logistics costs, narrowing profit margins and impacting pricing strategies.

Policy changes, including VAT adjustments and trade regulations, affected supplier flexibility and overall market sentiment.

Demand and Procurement Behavior

Export momentum remains strong due to international demand, although Europe’s softer import appetite and sustainability rules shaped trade flows.

Domestic consumption in APAC is moderating, prompting cautious procurement behavior.

Logistics and Trade-Flow Impacts

Freight costs and port congestion influenced delivery timelines and contributed to perceived price volatility for buyers.

Exporters leveraged abundant harvests to fulfill international contracts, but strategic shipping schedules accounted for currency and policy uncertainties.

Historical Context

Q2 2025: Vietnam experienced a two-phase price trend-April saw price upticks due to global supply concerns, followed by declines in May and June as new crop arrivals increased supply.

Q1 2025: India faced supply-side constraints from erratic rainfall and high temperatures, pushing prices upward amid strong global demand.

Q4 2024: Vietnam’s coffee harvest was disrupted by tropical storms, delaying collection and affecting quality, which contributed to elevated prices in APAC markets.

Europe

Quarterly Price Movements

Europe saw an increase in the Coffee Price Index during Q3 2025, driven by tight global supply and sustained demand across both at-home and out-of-home consumption channels. Specialty grades were particularly affected due to higher input costs, influencing retail pricing strategies.

September 2025 highlights:

Weather-related disruptions in major producing regions-including hail in Brazil and drought in Southeast Asia-reduced export volumes and pushed up spot prices.

Q4 2025 forecasts suggest a continued upward bias, particularly if adverse weather persists.

Production and Cost Trends

European roasters faced elevated production costs, particularly for specialty Arabica grades.

Logistics and labor costs in exporting countries contributed to tighter margins and higher retail pricing pressures.

Demand and Procurement Behavior

Strong seasonal consumption and café expansion supported demand, while price sensitivity among lower-income segments limited growth.

Buyers maintained a cautious approach, balancing forward procurement with spot market purchases to mitigate volatility.

Logistics and Trade-Flow Impacts

Supply-side bottlenecks, especially from Brazil and Vietnam, influenced import timelines.

Regulatory compliance, including deforestation-free sourcing rules, added complexity and potential cost to procurement strategies.

◼ Unlock Live Pricing Dashboards for Accurate and Timely Insights: https://www.chemanalyst.com/ChemAnalyst/PricingForm?Product=Coffee

Historical Context

Q2 2025: Imported coffee spot prices softened, reflecting improved global supply and moderation in speculative futures activity.

Q1 2025: Adverse weather in Brazil constrained supply, but European domestic demand remained steady.

Q4 2024: Severe droughts and rainfall disruptions in Brazil and Vietnam created tight supply conditions and elevated price volatility.

South America

South American coffee markets, particularly Brazil, showed high volatility throughout 2025. Q3 2025 saw a decline in the Coffee Price Index by 10.13% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting increased harvest output and oversupply.

September 2025 highlights:

Abundant harvests pressured prices despite ongoing weather-related risks.

Tariff policy shifts and currency volatility constrained demand, limiting price support.

Logistics bottlenecks and export delays kept prompt buyers cautious.

Historical Context

Q2 2025: Prices began high in April due to weather concerns but declined through May and June as harvest activity increased supply.

Q1 2025: Brazil experienced moderate price rises due to drought and El Niño effects impacting Arabica yields, while Robusta volumes rose.

Q4 2024: Drought conditions and El Niño effects stressed coffee crops, pushing prices higher, while logistical challenges further pressured supply chains.

Production and Cost Structure Insights

Global coffee production costs have trended upward in 2025 due to:

Labor costs: Wage increases in major exporting countries.

Transportation and logistics: Freight rates and port congestion elevated shipping costs.

Energy and fertilizer costs: Rising input costs in Brazil, Vietnam, and India impacted overall margins.

Regulatory compliance: Sustainability certifications and traceability requirements added overhead for exporters and importers.

These factors collectively influenced retail pricing, particularly for specialty and premium segments, while moderating pressures on commercial blends in cost-sensitive markets.

Procurement Outlook

North America and Europe: Buyers are expected to maintain a cautious procurement approach, balancing spot market purchases with forward contracts to hedge against potential supply disruptions and price volatility.

APAC: Procurement strategies are likely to focus on export timing, currency risk management, and policy considerations, particularly amid stable domestic supply.

South America: Buyers face risks from logistics delays, regulatory uncertainty, and currency volatility, necessitating proactive planning and flexible contracts.

Forward buying, staggered shipments, and supplier diversification remain key strategies to mitigate risks and optimize costs.

◼ Stay Updated Each Day with Verified Coffee Price Movements: https://www.chemanalyst.com/ChemAnalyst/PricingForm?Product=Coffee

FAQ

Q: Why did coffee prices rise in North America in September 2025?

A: Prices increased due to global supply disruptions in Brazil and Indonesia caused by adverse weather and El Niño effects, reducing inventories and pushing up import costs.

Q: Why did coffee prices decline in APAC during Q3 2025?

A: Favorable harvests in Vietnam increased supply, while domestic demand softened and export margins were influenced by currency and freight costs.

Q: What factors influenced European coffee prices in Q3 2025?

A: Weather-related disruptions in Brazil and Southeast Asia, combined with elevated production costs and sustained demand, drove price increases.

Q: How do production costs affect global coffee pricing?

A: Rising labor, energy, transportation, and regulatory compliance costs in exporting regions elevate the cost base for roasters and distributors, influencing retail prices.

Q: What is the forecast for coffee prices in Q4 2025?

A: North America and Europe are expected to see continued upward price trends, particularly if adverse weather persists. APAC markets are expected to remain relatively stable, influenced by export demand and policy shifts.

How ChemAnalyst Supports Coffee Buyers

ChemAnalyst provides real-time market intelligence and actionable insights for coffee buyers, traders, and procurement teams:

Real-time pricing updates: Track spot prices and historical trends across North America, APAC, Europe, and South America.

Price forecasts: Anticipate market movements and optimize procurement strategies to achieve cost savings.

Supply-chain intelligence: Monitor plant shutdowns, logistical bottlenecks, and regulatory changes that could disrupt supply.

Expert analysis: ChemAnalyst’s team of chemical engineers and market experts offer insights into the reasons behind price movements and supply-demand dynamics.

Global coverage: With offices in Houston, Cologne, and New Delhi, and presence in 50+ major trading ports, ChemAnalyst ensures comprehensive, on-the-ground information for global coffee markets.

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This release was published on openPR.

The intraday negative pressure increased on copper price trading due to stochastic attempt to exit from the overbought level, which forces it to settle below $5.9700, forcing it to form corrective waves by reaching $5.7900.

The price might decline towards the initial support at $5.7500 by the continuation of the negative pressure will increase the chances of breaking this support, to expect targeting extra corrective stations that begin at $5.6300 and $5.5100, while its success to step above $6.000 will open the way for recording new historical gains by its rally towards the bullish channel’s resistance at $6.1800.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.6300 and $5.9700

Trend forecast: Bearish