XAU/USD Current price: $2,903.97

• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress, said nothing new to markets.
• The US January Consumer Price Index is expected to remain stable at 2.9% YoY.
• XAU/USD attracts buyers on dips, higher highs still likely.

Spot Gold peaked at $2,942.76 early on Tuesday, reaching yet another record high before giving up. The bright metal fell towards $2,880 early in the American session but quickly recovered the $2,900 mark, trading above it as the session progressed.

The US Dollar (USD) lost its recent attractiveness across the FX board despite a cautious mood that prevailed throughout the day, once again correcting lower after a strong start to the week.

Asian and European traders held cautious ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s appearance before Congress. Powell, who testified on monetary policy, repeated much of what he said after the January Fed monetary policy meeting. Powell said policymakers are in no hurry to adjust the monetary policy and would like to make more progress on inflation. He also added that the economy was in a “pretty good place” and refused to comment on tariffs.

His words brought some relief to financial markets, helping Wall Street to trim most of its early losses while reviving the USD’s weakness.

Powell will repeat his testimony on Wednesday, although before a different commission. Additionally, the United States (US) will release the January Consumer Price Index (CPI), foreseen up by 2.9% from a year earlier, matching the December reading. The core annual advance is expected at 3.1%, slightly below the previous 3.2%.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD remains bullish, yet overbought conditions suggest a corrective decline remains likely. In the daily chart, technical indicators are retreating just modestly while still developing within extreme levels. At the same time, the bright metal remains far above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading firmly higher, yet currently at around $2,787.34, too far below the current level to be relevant.

XAU/USD corrected overbought conditions in the near term and could resume its advance from here. The 4-hour chart shows buyers added longs in the intraday dip towards a bullish 20 SMA, now providing dynamic support at around $2,883.50. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, maintain their strong upward slopes far below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators corrected extreme overbought readings but turned flat above their midlines, reflecting buying interest surging on price retracements.

Support levels: 2,883.50 2,872.30 2,855.45

Resistance levels: 2,911.60 2,925.00 2,940.00

Home Depot’s stock price (HD) rose in the intraday levels, after leaning on the support of the 50-day SMA, lending the stock positive momentum, amid the dominance of the main upward trend, while trading alongside the secondary short-term trend line, with positive signals from the RSI after reaching oversold levels. 

Therefore we expect more gains for the stock, targeting the pivotal resistance of $440.97, provided the support of $401.76 holds on.

Trend forecast for today: Bullish 

• Silver price loses ground despite safe-haven demand following US tariffs.
• Trump’s 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports heightens the threat of a wider trade dispute.
• Safe-haven demand increases as Middle East tensions escalate, following Trump’s call for Israel to end its ceasefire with Hamas.

Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent gains, trading around $31.80 per troy ounce during the European session on Tuesday. However, the downside of the metal price could be restrained as safe-haven demand for precious metals surged amid increased risk aversion following the latest US tariffs.

US President Donald Trump imposed a flat 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports on Monday, removing all exemptions and nullifying previous trade agreements with key United States (US) allies. The move is intended to support struggling domestic industries but increases the risk of a broader trade conflict.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could support the prices of the safe-haven Silver. President Trump has urged Israel to end its ceasefire with Hamas if hostages are not returned by the weekend, increasing the risk of renewed conflict as both sides accuse each other of violating the agreement.

However, the demand for non-interest-bearing Silver could face challenges as higher interest rates in the United States (US) could last longer. A Reuters poll of economists suggests the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may postpone interest rate cuts until next quarter due to inflation concerns. Many analysts who had anticipated a rate cut in March have now adjusted their forecasts, with most predicting at least one cut by June.

Investors await the release of the latest US inflation figures and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later this week, which could influence the outlook for US monetary policy.

Texas Instruments’ stock price (TXN) fell in the intraday levels, while preparing to pierce the pivotal support of $180.00, amid the dominance of the downward correctional trend in the short term, coupled with negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA, and countered with positive signals from the RSI after reaching oversold levels, curbing upcoming losses. 

Therefore we expect more losses for the price, provided the aforementioned support of $180.00 was breached, thus targeting the next one at $166.90.

Trend forecast for today: Bearish 

• Silver reverses the previous day’s positive move, though it lacks follow-through.
• The setup supports prospects for an extension of over a one-month-old uptrend.
• Any meaningful slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday and drops back closer to the overnight swing low, around the $31.65-$31.60 area. The white metal, however, trims a part of its intraday losses and currently trades just below the $32.00 mark, down 0.45% for the day. 

From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past week or so might be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent breakout through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in the positive territory, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside. 

That said, repeated failures to find acceptance and build on momentum beyond the $32.30 barrier make it prudent to wait for a breakout through the short-term trading range before placing fresh bullish bets around the XAG/USD. The commodity might then surpass the $32.65 area, the monthly swing high touched last Friday, and aim to reclaim the $33.00 round figure for the first time since early November.

On the flip side, the $31.65-$31.60 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate support. Any further weakness below the said support could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the 100-day SMA, currently pegged around the $31.20-$31.15 zone. This is followed by the $31.00 mark, which, if broken decisively, might prompt some technical selling and pave the way for deeper losses.

Silver daily chart

The EURJPY pair ended the recent negative attack by holding above the major support at 155.30, to notice reacting to stochastic attempt to exit the oversold areas by forming bullish wave and settle near 156.60.

The frequent stability above the mentioned support allows us to suggest the correctional bullish track to attempt to provide strong pressures on 157.25 barrier, while surpassing it will push the price to decrease its losses by rallying towards 158.50, while facing new negative pressures and crawling below 155.30 will confirm its preparation to resume the negative attack, to expect targeting the historical support at 154.40.

The expected trading range for today is between 155.80 and 157.25

Trend forecast: Bullish

Brent oil price traded with clear positivity yesterday to confirm breaching 76.00$, which stops the negative effect of the head and shoulders’ pattern that appears on the chart to head towards achieving more rise in the upcoming sessions, especially after surpassing the EMA50 and holding above it.

On Track to Close Strong

At the time of this writing, natural gas was trading in the top third of the day’s trading range and looks likely to close the day in a similar way. A daily close today above last week’s high of $3.44 would provide an additional sign of strength for the developing uptrend. Moreover, today’s advance triggered a breakout above a falling trendline, and the closing price will likely be above it, which would be a sign of strength.

Possibly, upward momentum can stay strong enough for the 50-Day line to be reclaimed and then further exceeded. There is a rising ABCD pattern (light blue) on the chart with an initial target at $3.58. It provides the possibility of this. Nonetheless, it is higher target whether approached on a breakout through the 50-Day line or following a bearish pullback.

Heading Towards Top of Range?

Another item that is supportive of a continuation higher is the wide range engulfing candle pattern on the weekly chart (not shown) with a range of $2.99 to $3.83. Rather than engulfing the prior price action, this candle overrides subsequent price action. Last week’s trading range was within the price range of the week before. And this week’s price range could easily do the same.

Last week’s wide range could provide an environment like trading inside consolidation. Once support is tested at the bottom of a range, which happened with the swing low and weekly low at $2.99, a swing back in the other direction, in this case up. A decisive breakout above the 50-Day MA would provide the next sign of strength and possible continuation of the advance.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price could further rise as the daily chart analysis suggests a persistent bullish bias.
• The pair may retest its three-month high of $32.65, reached on February 7.
• The nine-day EMA of $31.71 acts as immediate support.

Silver price (XAG/USD) rebounds from recent declines, hovering near $32.00 per troy ounce during Monday’s Asian session. A daily chart analysis indicates a sustained bullish trend, with the metal price advancing within an ascending channel.

The XAG/USD pair remains above the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling strong short-term momentum. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays above the 50 mark, further supporting the prevailing bullish sentiment.

Silver price could encounter initial resistance at its three-month high of $32.65, last tested on February 7, aligning with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A decisive breakout above this level could strengthen the bullish trend, potentially driving the XAG/USD pair toward the psychological mark of $33.00.

On the downside, support is found at the nine-day EMA at $31.71, followed by the 14-day EMA at $31.44, and the ascending channel’s lower boundary at $31.10. A breach below this key support zone could weaken the bullish outlook, exposing the XAG/USD pair to further downside toward its five-month low of $28.74, recorded on December 19.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart

Silver price faced clear negative pressure in the previous sessions, as it reached the key support at 31.63$, which forms good barrier against the price, noticing that the EMA50 meets this level to add more strength to it, while stochastic shows clear positive signals now.