Created on December 30, 2024

• During my daily analysis of the commodity markets, the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has taken front and center stage, due to the fact that it rallied quite significantly during the day that had almost no volume and all other markets.
• This does make a certain amount of sense, because quite frankly I think the trade involving shorting oil is probably about to get blown up.
• The $72.50 level above is an area all be watching early in January, because breaking above that gets the market rolling to the upside rather quickly in my estimation.

Global Demand

Global demand is a little bit of a mixed bag, but when it comes to the United States, it’s obvious that the US economy is stronger than many others, and I think a lot of people will look at the WTI Crude Oil market through that prism. With this being the case, you have a situation where the market is likely to continue to favor buying dips, and between now and the Non-Farm Payroll announcement in January, it’s possible that we market will drift back and forth, but I think it remains a buy on the dip situation. If the employment numbers in January come out strong, it’s very likely that we will continue to see demand for the crude oil market strengthen, as it would signify that the US economy is still very strong.

On the downside, the $65 level is a massive support level that you must pay close attention to, and I think you would be witnessing a significant breakdown if we were to fall below there now. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but it is something that you need to keep in the back of your mind just in case. Any move toward the $68 level I suspect will find plenty of buyers at this point, as it has been somewhat supportive over the last couple of weeks. Either way, I think crude oil is about to start rallying for a bigger move, but we probably need to get through the holidays first.

Ready to trade the daily crude oil Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the best Oil trading platforms to check out. 

• Gold price edges lower to $2,600 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
• The Fed’s cautious stance might drag the precious metal lower. 
• Uncertainty and geopolitical tensions could boost Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset.

The Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $2,600 during the early Asian section on Tuesday. Traders await fresh catalysts, including the US interest rate outlook and potential tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump. The markets are likely to be quiet before year-end. 

The cautious stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could weigh on the yellow metal as higher interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of holding the non-yielding asset. Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted earlier this month that the US central bank might be cautious on further rate cuts after delivering a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut. The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or “dot plot”, indicated the Fed’s intention to reduce the number of interest rate cuts next year from four to just two quarter-percent reductions.

On the other hand, geopolitical tensions and Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House might intensify global trade tensions, fueling geopolitical crises and likely lifting the Gold price. “Geopolitical tensions have driven gold’s rise this year and will likely continue into 2025, especially with Trump’s return to office,” noted Kelvin Wong, OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific.

Resistance Seen at Top of Channel

Given today’s bearish reaction around the top channel line, it seems like the market has recognized the price zone around the line. There was also the completion of a rising ABCD pattern extended by the 161.8% Fibonacci ratio at 4.06, and of course natural gas plowed right through that price area. Subsequently, the next higher price zone looks like it starts around 4.33. That’s where another ABCD pattern (red) reaches its initial target.

Another Test of Support Around 20-Day MA?

If natural gas continues to get rejected from resistance around the top channel line, this could lead to a correction. However, notice that it could keep rising and stay below the top channel line until almost reaching the 4.33 target. Nonetheless, targets only provide a guide and price action needs to be watched for new clues and changes in the outlook.

Today’s price action has begun to generate a potentially higher weekly high and higher low for this week. The weekly trend structure will remain in place unless there is a drop below last week’s low of 3.29.

Rally Risks Getting Tired

This means that a pullback from today’s high would not be unusual and that the near-term bull trend structure remains unless there is a drop below 3.29. Profit taking as seen in a pullback may also occur during a period of consolidation. Keep in mind that long-term bullish signals recently triggered and were confirmed by additional signal of strength. A bullish breakout of a large symmetrical triangle pattern triggered on November 20, and a long-term trend continuation signal occurred on a rally above the 3.16 swing high from June on the initial breakout day.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Love hình giá cà phê world

Robusta coffee prices on the London floor, updated at 15:30 a.m. on December 30, 2024: monthly delivery term March 2025 ended at 4.953 USD/ton; monthly delivery term May 2025 ended at 4884 USD/ton; monthly delivery term July 2025 ended at 4814 USD/ton and monthly delivery term September 2025 ended at 4726 USD/ton.

Trong khi đó, giá cà phê Arabica trên sàn New York kỳ hạn giao tháng March 2025 đóng cửa ở mức 322,65 cent/lb; kỳ giao hàng tháng May 2025 đóng cửa ở mức 317.60 cent/lb; kỳ giao hàng tháng July 2025 đóng cửa ở mức 311.05 cent/lb và kỳ giao hàng tháng September 2025 đóng cửa ở mức 303.70 cent/lb.

Đối với giá cà phê Arabica Brazil được cập nhật như sau: kỳ giao hàng tháng March 2025 kết thúc ở mức 402.55 USD/tấn; kỳ giao hàng tháng May 2025 kết thúc ở mức 395.80 USD/tấn; kỳ giao hàng tháng July 2025 kết thúc ở mức 387.05 USD/tấn và kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng September 2025 kết thúc ở mức 374.30 USD/tấn.

Domestic coffee prices increased slightly

Theo thông tin từ Giacaphe.com, cập nhật giá cà phê lúc 15 giờ 30 phút hôm nay ngày December 30, 2024, giá cà phê trong nước tăng nhẹ trung bình ở mức 121.100 đồng/kg, tăng nhẹ +200 đồng/kg so với ngày hôm qua.

Giá cà phê cao nhất thu mua ở các vùng trọng điểm của Tây Nguyên được ghi nhận ở mức 121.200 đồng/kg và được ghi nhận tăng đều +200 đồng/kg ở các tỉnh. Cụ thể, giá cà phê hôm nay tại Dak Lak at 121.000 VND/kg; coffee price at Lam Dong has a price of 120.500 VND/kg; coffee price at Gia Lai Today the price is 121.000 VND/kg and the price of coffee at Dak Nong hôm nay có giá 121.200 đồng/kg. Như vậy, tỉnh Đắk Nông vẫn là tỉnh thu mua cà phê cao nhất so với các tỉnh còn lại.

The domestic coffee prices that Giacaphe.com lists every day are calculated based on the prices of two world coffee exchanges combined with continuous surveys from businesses and purchasing agents in key coffee growing areas across the country.

Y5Cafe always tries to stay as close as possible to each region, however there will be days when the listed price does not completely match the local coffee purchase price, but Y5Cafe believes that the listed information is a valuable reference source for farmers and coffee purchasing businesses.

Coffee price prediction tomorrow 31/ 12 / 2024

Ngày December 30, 2024, giá cà phê trong nước ghi nhận trung bình ở mức 121.100 đồng/kg, tăng nhẹ 200 đồng so với ngày hôm trước. Đây là một dấu hiệu tích cực cho người trồng cà phê trong bối cảnh thị trường đang có nhiều biến động.

Cà phê chín tại xã Liên Hiệp, huyện Đức Trọng, tỉnh Lâm Đồng. Ảnh: Lê Sơn

Tuy nhiên, trên thị trường thế giới, giá cà phê Robusta và Arabica lại có xu hướng giảm nhẹ. Nguyên nhân chủ yếu đến từ áp lực của hoạt động đầu cơ và sự mạnh lên của đồng USD, khiến các nhà đầu tư thận trọng hơn trong giao dịch.

Giới chuyên gia dự báo giá cà phê trong nước ngày December 31, 2024 có thể sẽ quay đầu giảm nhẹ, dự kiến dao động trong khoảng 120.000 – 120.900 đồng/kg. Tình hình này phản ánh sự ảnh hưởng từ hoạt động đầu cơ và áp lực từ thị trường quốc tế. Người trồng cà phê và các nhà đầu tư cần theo dõi sát sao diễn biến giá cả để có những điều chỉnh phù hợp trong chiến lược kinh doanh của mình.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,599.81

• Thin holiday conditions exacerbate market movements ahead of New Year’s Eve.
• Uncertainty about what the new year will bring sends investors into safety.
• XAU/USD accelerated its slide after Wall Street’s opening and aims to test the monthly low.

Spot Gold pierced the $2,600 mark in the American session, further retreating from Friday’s peak at $2,638. Sentiment leads the way, with the US Dollar (USD) gaining momentum after Wall Street’s opening amid the poor performance of local indexes. Thin trading conditions exacerbate stocks’ decline, spurring USD near-term demand. Nevertheless, and despite near-term losses, the three major indexes are heading to close another year with solid gains.

Additionally, market players drop high-yielding assets amid uncertainty over what 2025 may bring. The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) has recently announced it will slow the pace of interest rate cuts amid stubbornly high inflation. Also, former president Donald Trump will return to the White House on January 20 and his anticipated protectionism measures may mean even higher inflationary pressures ahead.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows the pair has met intraday sellers around a bullish 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 20 SMA turns south above the longer one. Technical indicators, in the meantime, gain bearish traction within negative levels, favoring a downward extension towards the December low at $2,582.93.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the bearish case is also solid. XAU/USD is currently developing below all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining downward strength below the longer ones. At the same time, technical indicators head lower almost vertically, currently approaching oversold readings.

Support levels:  2,595.80 2,582.90  2,570.10

Resistance levels: 2,604.20 2,617.55 2,632.00

A winter cold blast is causing natural gas to spike.

That’s what Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group, told Rigzone in an exclusive interview on Monday when asked why the U.S. natural gas price is rising today.

Flynn, who highlighted to Rigzone that the commodity “open[ed]… up over 10 percent higher” said “predictions of an arctic cold blast, and the possibility that this January may be the coldest in 30 years, is suddenly changing the fundable”.

“Not only will we see record demand but also the possibility of natural gas production freeze offs,” Flynn warned.

The PRICE Futures Group senior market analyst told Rigzone that the natural gas market “hasn’t really had to face a real winter”.

“Now we will test the bearish narratives in the market,” Flynn added.

When he was asked why the U.S. natural gas price is rising today in a separate exclusive interview on Monday, Gabriel Odiase, an analyst at the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHBD), said, “mainly uncertainties around the renewal, or not, of the major contract for transporting Russian gas through Ukraine, which is set to expire at the end of December”.

“This contract, between Russia’s Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz, has been key for delivering Russian gas to Europe,” Odiase told Rigzone.

“The contract expiry could shape Europe’s gas supply and market dynamics. This may potentially increase demand for LNG, as cover, at the start of the new year,” Odiase went on to state.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest weekly natural gas storage report, which was released on December 27 and includes data for the week ending December 20, stated that “working gas in storage was 3,529 billion cubic feet as of Friday, December 20, 2024, according to EIA estimates”.

“This represents a net decrease of 93 billion cubic feet from the previous week. Stocks were 14 billion cubic feet higher than last year at this time and 166 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3,363 billion cubic feet,” the report added.

“At 3,529 billion cubic feet, total working gas is within the five-year historical range,” the EIA report went on to state.

The EIA’s next weekly natural gas storage report is scheduled to be released on January 3. It will show data for the week ending December 27.

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released in December, the EIA raised its Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast for 2024 and 2025.

According to its December STEO, the EIA sees the Henry Hub spot price averaging $2.19 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2024 and $2.95 per MMBtu in 2025. The EIA’s previous November STEO projected that the Henry Hub spot price would average $2.17 per MMBtu in 2024 and $2.90 per MMBtu in 2025.

In another exclusive interview, ex-Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA) Chief Economist Frederick J. Lawrence told Rigzone on December 19 that natural gas prices had “rallied over the past two days based on forecasts of colder weather anticipated in January”.

“In addition to more frosty weather arriving after the Christmas holiday, natural gas storage also proved more robust as of December 13. The latest storage number showed a net decrease in storage of 125 billion cubic feet compared to the previous week,” he added.

“Stocks at 3,622 billion cubic feet remain 20 billion cubic feet higher than last year and 123 billion cubic feet higher than the five year average,” he went on to state.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

• Silver price hovers near $29.50 in an illiquid market with the US Dollar and bond yields closing the calendar year on a strong note.
• The Fed sees the federal fund rate heading to 3.9% by the end of 2025.
• Strong US economic growth prospects allowed the Fed to guide fewer interest rate cuts for the next year.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades cautiously near Friday’s low around $29.50 in thin volume conditions before New Year on Monday. The white metal is broadly under pressure as the outlook of the US Dollar (USD) remains firm on expectations that a moderate policy-easing cycle by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025 will keep US Treasury yields elevated.

10-year US Treasury yields are down 0.5% in Monday’s European session but are still almost 15% higher this calendar year near 4.60%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks lower but remains broadly sideways around 108.00.

Market speculation for the Fed to follow a slower rate-cut path next year stemmed from the central bank’s latest dot plot, which showed that policymakers collectively see the Federal fund rate heading to 3.9% by the end of 2025.

Fed policymakers shifted their stance on interest rates from ‘dovish’ to ‘cautious’ as they were upbeat about the United States’ (US) economic growth. Additionally, a slowdown in the disinflation process in the last few months forced them to guide fewer rate cuts for the next year.

This week, investors will focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for December, which will be released on Friday. The Manufacturing PMI is estimated to have come in at 48.3, slightly lower than 48.4, which suggests that manufacturing output contracted at a slightly faster pace.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price stays below the upward-sloping trendline after a breakdown near $30.00, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe,. The white metal wobbles around the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting that the longer-term outlook is uncertain.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls inside the 20.00-40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if it sustains in that range.

Looking down, the September low of $27.75 would act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the 50-day EMA around $30.90 would be the barrier.

Silver daily chart

• Silver prices appreciate as traders adopt caution ahead of the incoming Trump administration.
• The non-yielding Silver may face challenges due to a hawkish outlook for the Fed’s interest rates in 2025.
• The safe-haven Silver received support as Israeli forces carried out attacks on two hospitals in northern Gaza on Sunday.

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around $29.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. However, trading volume is lighter than usual ahead of the New Year holiday.

The safe-haven Silver appreciates as traders anticipate signals regarding the United States (US) economy under the President-elect Trump administration and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook for 2025.

The potential for Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade policies could trigger trade conflicts, increasing the risk aversion sentiment and supporting the demand for safe-haven assets like Silver. However, the outlook for fewer Fed rate cuts in 2025 might cap the upside for the price of the non-yielding Silver. The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point at the December meeting, and the latest Dot Plots indicated two rate cuts next year.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against its six major peers, hovers around 108.00, slightly below its highest level since November 2022. Any further strengthening of the Greenback could limit the upside of the dollar-denominated precious commodities like Silver, as a stronger USD makes these assets more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Additionally, the safe-haven demand for Silver could gain upward support from heightened geopolitical risks stemming from the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. On Sunday, Israeli forces carried out attacks on two hospitals in northern Gaza, including a strike on the upper floor of al-Wafaa Hospital in Gaza City, which killed at least seven people and critically wounded others.

• Gold price gains traction to near $2,625 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Trump’s administration could boost Gold price amid uncertainty. 
• The hawkish stance of the US Fed might cap the upside for the precious metal. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers to around $2,625 during the early Asian session on Monday. Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade policies could trigger trade conflicts, supporting the yellow metal. However, the outlook for fewer Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in 2025 might cap the upside for Gold price. Trading volume is lighter than usual ahead of the New Year holiday. 

Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House might intensify global trade tensions, fueling geopolitical crises and likely lifting the Gold price. “Trade tensions, potential conflicts, and unpredictable policies under his leadership might drive investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset,” said the managing director of RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited. 

Additionally, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war could boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. On Sunday, Israeli forces carried out attacks on two hospitals in northern Gaza, including a strike on the upper floor of al-Wafaa Hospital in Gaza City, which killed at least seven people and critically wounded others.

On the other hand, the rising expectations for fewer Fed rate cuts could underpin the Greenback and exert some selling pressure on the USD-denominated commodity price. A strengthening USD generally weighs on bullion, reducing its appeal to investors seeking non-yielding assets.

Dutch Bros Inc. NYSE: BROS is a thriving drive-thru coffee shop operator and franchisor operating 950 shops across 18 states. While primarily focused on coffee drinks, they also offer teas, smoothies, protein and energy drinks. They prioritize speed and efficiency with an app-driven, drive-thru-focused operating model catering to the on-the-go lifestyles of their customers.

The company reported 29% YoY revenue growth and 2.7% YoY same-store sales (SSS) growth in its third quarter of 2024. The most impressive statistic is the average unit volume (AUV) of $2 million in sales generated within the confines of 950 square feet, which is the average size per shop. 

The retail/wholesale sector company competes with Starbucks Co. NASDAQ: SBUX and Luckin Coffee Inc. OTCMKTS: LKNCY. Starbucks had 40,199 stores (52% company-owned and 48% licensed) at the end of its fiscal Q4 2024, adding 722 net new stores. Dutch Bros plans to add 150 stores in 2024.

Growing the Culture and Management From Within

Like CAVA Group Inc. NYSE: CAVA, Dutch Bros also has a promote-from-within philosophy as they map out the 6 steps to working your way up to a regional operator from Broista. They have 400 operator candidates with an average tenure of more than seven years. Each person in the pipeline is ready to be activated as a market operator. Dutch Bros received over 400,000 applications annually for 11,000 open field positions.

Impressive Q3 Results Indicating Growth In Every Metric

Dutch Bros reported Q3 2024 EPS of 16 cents, beating consensus estimates by 4 cents. Revenue rose 27.9% YoY to $338.2 million, firmly beating $324.97 million consensus estimates. System same-shop sales (SSS) rose 2.7% YoY, and transactions rose 0.8% YoY. Company-operated SSS rose 4% YoY, and transactions grew 2.4%. Dutch Bros opened 38 news shops, including 33 company-operated across 11 states. Company-operated shop gross profit rose to $68.4 million, up from $57 million last year.

Loyalty Program Hitting Records

The Dutch Rewards loyalty program saw the largest number of sign-ups since its launch, with over 1 million thanks to the rollout of its mobile ordering, of which 858 shops have enabled. In Q3, over 67% of total transactions were from Dutch Rewards members. Mobile orders make up 7% of total revenue, leaving much room for growth.

Dutch Bros Raises 2024 Guidance

For the full year 2024, Dutch Bros raised its revenue guidance to $1.255 billion to $1.260 billion, up from previous guidance of $1.215 billion to $1.230 billion, versus $1.23 billion consensus estimates. SSS growth is expected to be around 4.25% YoY, up from low single digits, and SSS growth for Q4 is expected to be between 1% and 2%. The total number of system shop openings in 2024 is expected to be around 150.

Food Is the Next Growth Driver

Dutch Bros sells a very limited number of food items. By limited, we mean four items to be exact: chocolate chip muffin tops, lemon poppyseed muffin tops, orange cranberry muffin tops and granola bars. Just as Starbucks instituted snacks and hot breakfast items to bolster their food sales, Dutch Bros has been experimenting with expanded bakery and sweet and savory hot food items in six shops in Q3. The initial response has been excellent, and the company is looking to roll out more food items in 2026.

Dutch Bros CEO Christine Barone commented, “Based on the early results, it is likely a more robust food venue will play a role for Dutch Bros in the future, and we will continue our testing in the coming quarters. With food making up less than 2% of our sales right now, we clearly see the opportunity.”

BROS Forms a Daily Pennant Pattern

A pennant pattern is a combination of a flagpole representing a parabolic price surge and a symmetrical triangle pattern at the peak comprised of a descending upper trendline and an ascending lower trendline converging at the apex point. A breakout occurs when the stock surges above the upper trendline, and a breakdown occurs if the stock falls below the lower trendline.

BROS formed the daily pennant after peaking at $50.24 following its Q3 earnings beat. The pennant is comprised of lower highs illustrated by the descending upper trendline and higher lows indicated by the ascending lower trendline. The daily anchored VWAP support is at $44.72. The daily RSI has been holding above the 70-band since the earnings price gap. Earnings price gap fill levels are at $43.50 and $35.40. Fibonacci (Fib) pullback support levels are at $43.50, $39.06, $35.40, and $32.08.  

BROS’s average consensus price target is $47.30, implying a 1.4% upside and its highest analyst price target is $55.00. Eight analysts have Buy ratings, and three have Hold ratings on the stock. The stock has a 10.79% short interest.

Actionable Options Strategies: Bullish options investors can buy BROS stock on a deeper pullback using cash-secured puts at the gap fill and Fib pullback support levels.   

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