Influence of Coal and Renewables on Gas Demand

Gas demand is increasingly influenced by competition from coal and renewable energy sources. In 2025, high gas prices forced many U.S. utilities to shift back to coal. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a modest uptick in coal-fired generation in late 2025, marking the first increase in three years. This trend could persist if gas prices remain high in 2026.

In Europe, weak wind and hydroelectric output led to increased gas-fired power generation throughout the winter. However, renewable capacity is expected to expand further in 2026. More solar and battery installations may reduce peak-hour gas needs. However, gas will remain the key baseload and backup fuel during weather-driven shortfalls in renewable energy.

What to Expect in 2026

Natural gas prices are expected to remain firm in early 2026. The EIA forecasts the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will average $4.30/MMBtu this winter. Colder-than-expected weather in December is driving higher heating demand.

However, prices are likely to ease after March. The milder temperatures and rising U.S. production will help cool down prices. For the full year, the average price is projected to be near $4.00/MMBtu. This marks a stable outlook compared to the volatility of 2025.

Moreover, electricity generation is expected to increase by 1.7% in 2026. This growth primarily stems from large-scale data centres in Texas and the PJM region. This adds steady support to gas-fired demand. Moreover, coal use is expected to decline next year as renewable energy sources expand. Power generators are expected to shift away from coal after a temporary rebound in 2025. This could strengthen gas’s role as the preferred baseload fuel.

Bottom Line

Natural gas enters 2026 with strong momentum. The strong winter conditions, LNG exports, and geopolitical disruptions supported prices into late 2025. Moreover, the technical structures indicate a completed bottom and favour further upside if prices clear the key resistance level of $5.50. At the same time, higher production and seasonal easing could cap gains later in the year.

Overall, the balance of macro drivers, related markets, and chart signals suggests strong prices early in 2026, followed by higher volatility as supply growth and weather conditions normalise. A sustained break above $5.50 would open the door for a surge toward the $10 level. However, if prices fail to break above $5.50, the market is likely to remain in a strong consolidation range between $2 and $5.

Toast, Inc. (TOST) edged higher in its latest intraday trading, after finding support at its 50-period SMA, which provided the stock with some positive momentum. This move comes after the stock successfully broke above a short-term corrective bearish trendline, while the RSI has managed to unwind its overbought conditions, giving the price more room to post additional gains in the near term.

Therefore we expect the stock price to rise further in the upcoming intraday trading, as long as it holds above 34.80, to target the key resistance level at 39.75.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish

The EURNZD began activating with the main indicators’ positivity, noticing its stability above %261.8 Fibonacci extension level, which represents an important support at 2.0070, attempting to record some gains by its rally towards 2.0270.

The price needs extra bullish momentum to reinforce the chances of forming strong bullish waves, to attack the barrier near 2.0385, to confirm surpassing it to open the way for recording more of the gains, to expect forming extra main target at 2.0500 reaching the top near 2.0625.

The expected trading range for today is between 2.0205 and 2.0385

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair is forced to provide slow corrective trading, due to the contradiction between the main indicators, keeping its fluctuations near 210.65 level, but its stability below 211.30 level supports the chances of activating the bearish corrective attack, to keep waiting for our negative expectations until reaching 209.70 level reaching the minor bullish channel’s support at 209.00.

While gathering extra bullish momentum and its rally above the barrier will provide new opportunity for activating the bullish trend, to expect targeting new positive stations that might begin at 212.65.

The expected trading range for today is between 209.30 and 211.20

Trend forecast: Bearish

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Important DisclaimersFXEmpire is owned and operated by Empire Media Network LTD., Company Registration Number 514641786, registered at 7 Jabotinsky Road, Ramat Gan 5252007, Israel. The content provided on this website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and materials provided by third parties. This content is intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be interpreted as, a recommendation or advice to take any action, including making any investment or purchasing any product. Before making any financial decision, you should conduct your own due diligence, exercise your own discretion, and consult with competent advisors. The content on this website is not personally directed to you, and we do not take into account your individual financial situation or needs. The information contained on this website is not necessarily provided in real time, nor is it guaranteed to be accurate. Prices displayed may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges. Any trading or other financial decision you make is entirely your own responsibility, and you must not rely solely on any information provided through the website. FXEmpire does not provide any warranty regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information contained on the website and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of using such information. The website may include advertisements and other promotional content. FXEmpire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with such content. FXEmpire does not endorse, recommend, or assume responsibility for the use of any third-party services or websites. Empire Media Network LTD., its employees, officers, subsidiaries, and affiliates shall not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided herein.Risk DisclaimersThis website contains information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs), and other financial instruments, as well as about brokers, exchanges, and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and involve a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FX Empire encourages you to conduct your own research before making any investment decision and to avoid investing in any financial instrument unless you fully understand how it works and the risks involved.