Early morning of October 23 (Vietnam time), on the London floor, the price of Robusta coffee futures for November 10 delivery was trading at 11 USD/ton, down 2024 USD/ton compared to early morning yesterday. The price of January 4.487 delivery was trading at 90 USD/ton, down 1 USD/ton compared to the previous day.
Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor for December 12 delivery were trading at 2024 cents/lb, down 249 cents/lb from the previous trading session. Futures for March 2 delivery were trading at 3 cents/lb, down 2025 cents/lb.
Coffee prices fell across the board today. (Illustration photo)
Coffee prices in the country
Domestic coffee prices today recorded a general decrease, fluctuating between 111.000 – 111,600 VND/kg.
Specifically, today’s coffee price in Dak Lak is trading at 111.300 VND/kg, down 200 VND/kg compared to yesterday’s trading session.
Today’s coffee price in Lam Dong is recorded at 111.000 VND/kg, down 200 VND/kg.
Coffee price in Gia Lai today recorded transactions at 111.400 VND, down 200 VND/kg from the previous trading session.
Coffee prices today in Dak Nong also recorded a decrease of 200 VND/kg, trading at 111.600 VND/kg.
Rains returned to most of Brazil’s major coffee-growing regions last week, weather agencies reported, improving growing conditions and raising hopes that the 2025-2026 crop could improve after a record-breaking dry spell.
Rains are forecast to continue at least through October. Increased rainfall in the southeast of Brazil, combined with cooler temperatures, will create ideal conditions for coffee plants to continue to recover and grow. However, farmers and analysts still predict that Brazil’s coffee harvest in 10 will continue to be lower than this year because late rains will prevent the crop from fully recovering.
In addition, the information that many investors, exporters and importers of coffee in the world are interested in is the latest announcement of the EU deforestation-related import regulations (EUDR). Accordingly, the European Union ambassadors have agreed to extend the implementation of the EUDR regulation for another year until the end of December next year. This delay is expected to help stabilize the supply and demand of coffee in the market as coffee importers in Europe will restrain the recent surge in purchases. At the same time, coffee exporters have time to ensure the regulations, thereby ensuring supply for the market when the EUDR officially takes effect.
In addition, the Dollar Index increased by 0,5%, causing the USD/BRL exchange rate to skyrocket right at the opening. The USD/BRL price gap was larger, causing the market to worry that Brazil would boost exports due to earning more foreign currency, which increased pressure on coffee prices.
Gold price corrects from near record highs of $2,749 on cautious optimism.
The US Dollar stays firm with Treasury bond yields on potential Trump win and less aggressive Fed easing.
BRICS Summit could cap Gold price downside, as extremely overbought RSI conditions ease.
Gold price is seeing a minor correction early Wednesday, having hit a fresh record high of $2,749 in the US last session. The sustained strength in the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields weigh on the Gold price.
Gold price suffers from Trump win expectations
The ongoing advance in the US Treasury bond yields and hence, the Greenback could be attributed to two fundamental factors, affecting the yieldless Gold price. With the US presidential election approaching, the market’s expectations for a Trump win are rising, Trump’s potential trade and fiscal policies are seen as inflationary, suggesting higher interest rates. These expectations have triggered a big sell-off in the US government bonds, spiking up US Treasury bond yields across the curve.
Additionally, increased odds that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will be on a gradual interest-rate reduction path also act as a tailwind to the US yields, boosting the USD at the expense of the Gold price. Markets wager a 91% chance of a 25-basis points (bps) cut in November, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed.
The latest comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly backed the expectations of a gradual policy easing by the Fed. Daly said late Tuesday that the economy is clearly in a better place, inflation has fallen substantially and the labor market has returned to a more sustainable path.
Despite, the persistent strength in the US Treasury bond yields and the Greenback on Tuesday, Gold price defied the bearish odds and recorded a new all-time high at $2,749. Escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel and the revival of the de-dollarization talks underpinned the sentiment around the bright metal.
With a three-day BRICS Summit underway, speculations resurfaced of a gold-backed currency to rival the US Dollar, as central banks from BRICS nations aim to shift to de-dollarization. BRICS countries account for about 20% of global Gold reserves.
That said, any further decline in Gold price could find some support, as day 2 of the BRICS Summit kicks off. Gold traders will also focus on the mid-tier US housing data and Fedspeak for fresh trading impetus.
In the meantime, risk trends and dynamics of the US Treasury bond yields will continue to drive the Gold price action.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Gold price looks to test the $2,730 round level on its retracement from the record high of $2,749.
A sustained move below the latter could threaten the previous day’s low of $2,719.
The last line of defense for Gold buyers is seen at the $2,700 threshold.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned south, easing from the extreme overbought conditions, currently trade near 72.00. The leading indicator backs the latest downside in Gold price but keeps buyers hopeful.
In case of a rebound, Gold price need to take out the lifetime high at $2,749 to ensure a fresh advance toward the $2,800 psychoogical mark.
Ahead of that the rising trendline resistance at $2,756 could act as a stiff resistance.
BRICS FAQs
The BRICS is the acronym denoting the grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The name was created by Goldman Sachs’ economist Jim O’Neill in 2001, years before the alliance between these countries was formally established, to refer to a group of developing economies that were predicted back then to lead the global economy by 2050. The bloc is seen as a counterweight to the G7, the group of developed economies formed by Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The BRICS is a bloc which intends to give voice to the so-called “Global South”. The alliance tends to have similar views on geopolitical and diplomatic issues, but still lacks a clear economic integration as the governing systems and cultural divergence between its members is significant. Still, it holds yearly summits at the highest level, coordinates multilateral policies and has implemented initiatives such as the creation of a joint development bank. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates joined the group in January 2024.
The five founding members of the BRICS alliance account for 32% of the global economy measured at purchasing power parity as of April 2023, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. This compares with the 30% of the G7 group.
There has been increasing speculation about the BRICS alliance creating a currency backed by some sort of commodity like Gold. The proposal is meant to reduce the use of the dominant US Dollar in cross-border economic exchanges. In the BRICS’ 2023 summit, the group stressed the importance of encouraging the use of local currencies in international trade and financial transactions between the members of the bloc as well as their trading partners. The group also tasked finance ministers and central bank governors “to consider the issue of local currencies, payment instruments and platforms” for this purpose. Even if the bloc’s de-dollarization strategy looks clear, the creation and implementation of a new currency seems to have a long way to go.
This week, crude oil prices faced sharp declines due to a confluence of factors that weighed heavily on market sentiment. Concerns over weak demand, particularly from China, and the easing of supply risks in the Middle East were central to the downward pressure on prices. Simultaneously, a series of reports from major institutions like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered global demand forecasts for 2024, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
One of the most significant drivers behind the drop in oil prices was renewed concern over China’s slowing economy. China, as the world’s largest importer of crude oil, plays a pivotal role in shaping global demand. Throughout the week, weak economic data from China, including persistently low inflation and sluggish consumer demand, added to fears that the country’s oil consumption might underperform expectations. Despite Chinese government promises of stimulus measures, the lack of concrete action or significant fiscal boosts left markets jittery. This uncertainty, combined with the deflationary signals from the world’s second-largest economy, prompted investors to downgrade their outlook on future oil demand??.
OPEC echoed these concerns, cutting its demand forecast for China. The organization now expects China’s oil demand growth to reach only 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from a previous estimate of 650,000 bpd. This revision played a major role in sending both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices down, as markets adjusted to the prospect of weaker consumption growth in the year ahead??.
Middle East Geopolitical Tensions Ease, Supply Fears Subside
Geopolitical risks also played a notable role in oil price movements this week. Tensions between Israel and Iran, which had previously buoyed oil prices on concerns of potential supply disruptions, began to ease. Reports emerged that Israel might refrain from targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, a move that would have potentially disrupted global oil flows. This news significantly reduced the “war premium” that had been factored into prices in recent weeks?. As a result, the market began to unwind some of the recent gains, sending prices lower as the risk of an immediate supply shock diminished.
The easing of Middle East tensions coincided with a broader assessment of global oil supplies, with analysts pointing out that despite ongoing geopolitical concerns, the market remains well-supplied. U.S. crude oil production hit a record high of 13.5 million bpd, further reassuring markets that any disruptions could be mitigated by robust production levels from non-OPEC producers?.
Lower Demand Projections Weigh on Market Sentiment
Both OPEC and the IEA issued reports this week downgrading their global oil demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025. OPEC reduced its forecast for global demand growth to 1.93 million bpd for 2024, marking the third consecutive downward revision. The IEA was even more bearish, projecting demand growth of just 900,000 bpd next year. These lower expectations are primarily driven by weak demand in China, a slowing global economy, and a shift towards cleaner energy sources such as natural gas and renewables??.
The divergence between the OPEC and IEA forecasts highlights differing perspectives on the pace of demand recovery, but both reports point to a well-supplied market in 2024, which adds to the downward pressure on prices. The IEA specifically pointed to increasing production from countries like the U.S., Brazil, and Canada as key contributors to the expected surplus next year??.
U.S. Inventory and Production Data: A bullish sliver of news?
In addition to demand concerns, U.S. inventory data also played a role in shaping the week’s price action. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drawdown in U.S. crude inventories, with stocks falling by 2.2 million barrels. This would typically provide support for prices; however, the overall market response was muted due to the broader demand outlook. Despite the drawdown, U.S. production continues to rise, further dampening any bullish sentiment. Weekly EIA crude production data suggest that output has risen to a record 13.5 million bpd, signaling that supply remains abundant even in the face of geopolitical risks?.
The drop in inventories, while providing some short-term relief, was overshadowed by the larger narrative of oversupply in the coming year. This reinforced the prevailing bearish sentiment, with traders more focused on the bigger picture of global supply and demand balances rather than temporary inventory fluctuations.
Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures
Trend Indicator Analysis
The main trend is down. It will change to up on a trade through $80.71. A trade through $64.04 will negate the reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The long-term range is $88.21 to $61.98. The market is currently trading on the bearish side of its 50% level at $75.10. The price level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.
The intermediate-term range is $61.98 to $82.43. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at $69.79 to $72.21. Bullish counter-trend traders are trying to defend this zone in an effort to form a potentially bullish secondary higher bottom. Bearish trend traders are hoping for an acceleration to the downside through $69.79.
Weekly Technical Forecast
The direction of the Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures market the week-ending October 25 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $72.21.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over $72.21 will signal the presence of strong counter-trend buyers. If this creates enough near-term momentum then we could see a test of the major 50% level at $75.10. Overcoming this level with conviction could put potential upside targets at $77.76, $80.71 and $82.43 on the radar.
Bearish Scenario
A failure to hold $72.21 will indicate that strong selling pressure is building. It will also confirm that the market is still in “sell the rally” mode. This could drive prices toward support at $69.79. If this fails then prices could collapse down to $64.04.
Outlook: Bearish Near-Term Forecast
Given the combination of weak demand expectations from China, lower global demand forecasts from both OPEC and the IEA, and the easing of Middle East supply risks, the outlook for crude oil prices remains bearish in the near term. While geopolitical factors and U.S. inventory data may provide intermittent support, the broader trends suggest that prices are likely to face continued downward pressure.
With China’s economic recovery still in question and global production levels remaining high, traders should prepare for the possibility of crude prices testing lower support levels in the weeks ahead. If Chinese stimulus measures fail to materialize or U.S. production continues to hit record levels, oil prices could face further declines, potentially moving into the $64 to $62 per barrel range??.
In the absence of any significant geopolitical disruptions or unexpected demand surges, the crude oil market is likely to remain under pressure heading into 2025.
United States Presidential election spurs concerns about the future of interest rates.
US Treasury yields extend their weekly gains amid a continued run to safety.
XAU/USD keeps reaching higher highs, bulls in full control of the pair.
Gold Price held at record levels on Tuesday, with XAU/USD trading as high as $2,745.01 during American trading hours. The bright metal maintains the positive tone amid the dismal market mood, given tensions in the Middle East and looming US elections.
Speculative interest began pricing in a slower pace of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts amid concerns former President Donald Trump may win the presidential race. Trump’s policies on taxes and tariffs are seen as a potential booster for inflation and even increased odds for interest rate hikes. Government bond yields extended their advance, with the 10-year Treasury note currently yielding 4.20%, its highest since late in July. The 2-year note currently offers 4.05%, also a fresh multi-week high.
Meanwhile, stock markets are in retreat mode, with most Asian and European indexes having closed in the red. Wall Street trades mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting sharp losses and only the Nasdaq Composite trading in the green.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The risk-averse environment suggests the bright metal will continue posting higher highs, with no signs of bullish exhaustion despite technical readings suggesting overbought conditions.
From a technical point of view, XAU/USD is poised to extend its advance. The daily chart shows that the pair trades a handful of cents below its daily high, with technical indicators reaching fresh highs while heading north. Meanwhile, the bright metal runs well above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $2,668, far above the longer ones.
The near-term picture supports an upward extension. In the 4-hour chart, technical indicators resumed their advances, maintaining upward slopes, with the RSI indicator heading north despite being in overbought territory. At the same time, the pair develops above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $2,718.
Potential resistance around the 50-Day MA lurks just above today’s high at 2.40. It can be considered along with the interim swing high of 2.44, thereby generating a potential resistance zone from 2.40 to 2.44. Once the 50-Day line is exceeded to the upside, natural gas will have a chance of continuing to rally. In general, Fibonacci ratio analysis considers the 38.2% retracement as a minimum normal retracement. Natural gas reaches its minimum 38.2% retracement target at 2.52.
Correction of 26.8% May be the End
Monday’s low of 2.21 completed a 0.81 point or 26.8% correction from the 3.02 swing high reached in early-October. During the decline, the 61.8% retracement at 2.31 was broken to the downside before support was seen from the 2.21 low, a little shy of a 78.6% retracement at 2.12. Given the sharp drop and signs of support at a potentially significant support zone, it looks like there is a real possibility of a bottom. However, further signs of strength are needed, starting with a clear bullish reversal.
Decisive Breakout Above 2.375 Needed
A more decisive bullish breakout than seen today is needed next with a rally above today’s high of 2.375, followed by a daily close above the high. Subsequently, upward momentum should improve at that point if the reversal takes hold. Yet, yesterday’s wide range day may lead to further backing and filling before the ascent kicks in. Until there is a daily close above today’s high the potential for lower prices and possibly a continuation of the downtrend remains. If the 2.21 fails to retain support, the 78.6% retracement at 2.12 becomes the next lower target.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Silver price soars to near $34.50 due to growing uncertainty over US elections and escalating Middle East tensions.
PBoC’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut has improved Silver’s demand as a metal.
The US Dollar refreshes an 11-week high on expectations of moderate interest rate cuts from the Fed.
Silver price (XAG/USD) surges to near $34.50 in Tuesday’s North American session, the highest level seen in over 12 years. The white metal strengthened after Israel launched missiles at Hezbollah’s financial institutions situated in the southern Lebanese cities of Tyre and Nabatiyeh. Escalating tensions in the Middle East region has improved Silver’s appeal as a safe haven.
In the United States (US) economy, growing uncertainty over presidential elections, which are just two weeks away has also strengthened the Silver price appeal. Latest national polls have shown that competition between former US President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris is very stiff. Market experts worry that Trump’s victory could undermine the currencies of the US’s trading partners. Trump promised to raise tariffs and lower taxes if he wins elections.
The demand outlook of the Silver as metal has improved after the People’s Bank of China’s policy announcement on Monday in which the central bank reduced one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by larger-than-expected size of 25 basis points (bps). Silver as a metal has applications in various industries such as Electric Vehicles (EV), wires and cables, and mining etc. The PBoC cuts its key borrowing rates with an outsize margin to boost households’ consumption and spending on infrastructure and to revive the housing sector.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) posts a fresh 11-week high as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates gradually. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, climbs above 104.00.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price strengthens after a breakout above the horizontal resistance plotted from May 21 high of $32.50 on a daily timeframe. Upward-sloping 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $30.70 and $31.70, respectively, signals more upside ahead.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates above 60.00, points to an active bullish momentum.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Coffee price forecast October 21, 10: Market fluctuates, positive sign for coffee growers Coffee price forecast October 2024, 22: Will the slight upward trend continue?
Coffee price today October 22, 10 at the market world decreased, while in the domestic market it increased slightly. Many experts predict that coffee prices may decrease on October 23 due to the high USD, pressure on supply from Vietnam and favorable rainy weather in Brazilian coffee growing areas.
Minas Gerais state, Brazil’s largest producer of arabica coffee, received 115% of its historical average rainfall over the past week, according to Brazil’s Somar Meteorologia, with more heavy rains forecast from Oct. 26 onwards, which should improve soil moisture and growing conditions.
Coffee price forecast for October 23, 10: Continue to decline under pressure from supply from Vietnam
Coffee prices were also pressured by the Brazilian real, which fell to a two-and-a-half month low against the dollar. The weaker real prompted Brazilian coffee producers to increase sales, adding further downward pressure on global coffee prices.
The dollar rose for a third straight week as a series of positive economic data from the US led investors to reduce expectations for the size and pace of interest rate cuts from the Fed. The DXY index surged to 3, its highest level in more than two weeks, pushing coffee prices further down.
Recorded in the trading session on October 22, 10, domestic coffee prices today increased by 2024 VND/kg, ranging from 100 – 111.200. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 111.800 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong is 111.8100 VND/kg.
Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai (Chu Prong) is 111.600 VND stable compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 111.500 VND/kg. In the province Kon Tum at 111.600 VND, unchanged from yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee was purchased at 111.800 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 111.200 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
Coffee prices today (April 22) in the province Dak LakIn Cu M’gar district, coffee is purchased at about 111.600 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district and Buon Ho town, it is purchased at 111.500 VND/kg.
Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on August 22, 10, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for delivery in September 2024 on the London floor is at 11 USD/ton, down 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.
London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com
The January 1 delivery term is 2025 USD/ton, down 4.414 USD; the March 84 delivery term is 3 USD/ton, down 2025 USD and the May 4.330 delivery term is 75 USD/ton, down 5 USD.
New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)
In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 p.m. on September 22, 10 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 244.20 cents/lb.
Specifically, the December 12 delivery period is 2024 cents/lb; down 249.70 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The March 2 delivery period is 3 cents/lb, down 2025 cents/lb; the May 248.55 delivery period is 1.90 cents/lb, down 5 cents/lb and the July 2025 delivery period is 247.05 cents/lb, down 1.50 cents/lb.
Brazilian Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)
The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on October 22, 10 decreased. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, down 2024%; the delivery period for March 298.80 is 0.75 USD/ton, down 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 299.70 USD/ton, down 0.65% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, down 304.60%.
Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.
Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.
Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, is facing a crop decline of more than 10% while other countries are having good harvests. Vietnam’s coffee output is forecast to continue to decline next season due to drought and shrinking planting areas as farmers switch to other economic crops. This affects coffee supply, contributing to the recent decline in global coffee prices.
*Information is for reference only, prices may vary depending on region and locality
Silver price receives support from the safe-haven flows amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Israel has targeted sites linked to Hezbollah’s financial operations in Beirut, heightening concerns about an escalating conflict.
With the US election just two weeks away, demand for safe-haven silver is on the rise.
Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its winning streak for the sixth consecutive day, trading around $34.10 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Tuesday. The demand for safe-haven Silver is increasing amid rising tensions, as Israel has targeted sites associated with Hezbollah’s financial operations in Beirut, raising fears of escalating conflict.
Israel’s potential retaliatory actions against Iran are also back in focus following an Iranian drone breach that detonated near Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence. Additionally, Israeli military forces intensified their operations on Monday, surrounding hospitals and shelters for displaced individuals in the northern Gaza Strip, which has hindered the delivery of essential aid to civilians, according to Reuters.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Israel on Tuesday as the first stop on a broader Middle East tour aimed at revitalizing ceasefire talks in Gaza and discussing the region’s future following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
As the tight US election approaches in just two weeks, demand for safe-haven Silver continues to rise. On Monday, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival, Donald Trump, presented starkly different messages on the campaign trail as they sought to win over undecided voters ahead of Election Day.
Moreover, easing monetary policies from major central banks are supporting non-yielding Silver prices. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to announce a significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
Recent inflation data indicates that both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may contemplate potential rate cuts next month. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of 2024.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold price bounces back toward record highs of $2,741 on tepid risk tone.
The US Dollar pulls back, as Treasury bond yields pause and earnings season unfold.
The daily RSI sits just above the overbought territory, further upside in the offing?
Gold price is picking up fresh bids to revert toward a new record high of $2,741 early Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) buyers catch their breath, assessing the ‘Trump trade’ while gearing up for the US earnings season.
Gold price remains at the mercy of the US Dollar
The Greenback pulls back from the highest level in nearly three months against its major rivals in Asian trading on Tuesday, as the US Treasury bond yields consolidate their previous rally. A pause in the US Dollar and the Treasury bond yield upsurge allow Gold buyers to find some foothold after Monday’s sharp reversal from the all-time peak.
A tepid risk tone, uncertainty around the US presidential election and the market’s caution heading into the key US earnings reports revive the demand for the traditional safe-haven Gold price. However, it remains to be seen whether the Gold price sustains its upswing and refreshes a lifetime high as Chinese equities buck the broad downtrend and advance on China’s recent stimulus efforts.
Further, increased expectations of less aggressive easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could also infuse fresh demand into the US Treasury bond yields and the USD, capping the bright metal’s bullish momentum.
On Monday, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields spiked nearly 11 basis points (bps) and lifted the Greenback across the board, following the commentary from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid.
Schmid said in his prepared remarks that “lowering rates in a gradual fashion would provide time to observe the economy’s reaction to our interest rate adjustments and give us the space to assess at what level interest rates are neither restricting nor boosting the economy.”
Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted late Monday that while she expects the Fed to continue slowly easing interest rates lower in the coming quarters, the Fed is still maintaining a data-dependent approach.
Against this backdrop, Gold price corrected sharply from a record high even though Wall Street indices tumbled, as investors resorted to profit-booking after recording their best performance last week.
Looking ahead, the US data docket remains dry and devoid of multiple speeches from Fed policymakers. Therefore, Gold traders will take cues from the broad market sentiment and any policies and trade developments from the three-day BRICS Summit, beginning on Tuesday.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Gold price is looking to retest the record high of $2,741, as buyers fight back control.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing north while above the 70 level – the overbought zone. The leading indicator justifies the latest uptick in Gold price.
A firm break of the all-time high at $2,741 could challenge the rising trendline resistance at $2,746.
The next bullish target is seen at the $2,750 psychological barrier, which will likely be a tough nut to crack for Gold optimists.
Alternatively, the immediate support at $2,700, below which the October 18 low of $2,692 will be threatened.
A deeper correction could put the previous resistance now turned support at $2,670 to the test.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver price hit new highest since November 2012 on Monday, in extension of last Friday’s record daily rally of 6.4%, with psychological $34.00 barrier being cracked.
Increased safe haven demand dragged silver price, as geopolitical situation is overheated and markets pricing around 90% chance of Fed rate cut in November FOMC policy meeting.
Strong bullish signal has been generated on monthly chart after bulls eventually broke above key barriers at $30.00/50 (psychological / 50% retracement of $49.78/$11.23, 2011/2020 downtrend) which where the price was stuck for four months.
Firmly bullish daily studies continue to contribute to positive structure, underpinned by favorable fundamentals.
The price is currently riding on extended fifth wave of five wave sequence from $26.39 (Aug 8 low) with FE 161.8% (33.89) being cracked.
Close above this level to verify fresh signal and open way for attack at next targets at $35.00/05 (psychological / Fibo 61.8% of $49.78/$11.23) and $35.369 (FE 200%).
Meanwhile, bulls may take a breather under these barriers as daily studies are overbought, with limited dips to be ideally contained above $32.20 zone and to offer better buying opportunities.
