The latest IMARC Group report, ” 𝗡𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗚𝗮𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀, 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱, 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁, 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱, 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀, 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀, 𝗛𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗘𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻,” presents a detailed analysis of price trends, offering key insights into global market dynamics. This report includes comprehensive price charts, which trace historical data and highlights major shifts in the market. The analysis delves into the factors driving these trends, including raw material costs, production fluctuations, and geopolitical influences. Moreover, the report examines demand, illustrating how consumer behavior and industrial needs affect overall market dynamics. By exploring the intricate relationship between supply and demand, the prices report uncovers critical factors influencing current and future prices.

For strategic planning, the report provides Natural Gas price forecasts, allowing businesses to anticipate price shifts and make informed decisions about procurement and investment. The forecast draws on historical data, market trends, and key economic indicators, ensuring a reliable outlook for stakeholders. Additionally, the inclusion of the price index offers a broader view of market performance over time, providing a valuable benchmark for evaluating market trends. With these insights, the report equips industry stakeholders with the tools needed to navigate the complex global Natural Gas market and optimize their strategies in response to evolving conditions.

𝗡𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗚𝗮𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿:

• 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮: 3485 USD/1000 MMBtu

𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗢𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴:

• 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝗹𝘆 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀: Annual Subscription

• 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀: Annual Subscription

• 𝗕𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀: Annual Subscription

The study examines the key factors driving Natural Gas price variations, focusing on shifts in raw material costs, the balance between supply and demand, and the impact of geopolitical influences. It also considers sector-specific developments that play a critical role in shaping market prices. By analysing these elements, the report offers valuable insights into the underlying causes of Natural Gas price fluctuations, helping businesses and investors understand market behaviour more effectively.

In addition, the report provides the latest market updates, ensuring stakeholders are informed about recent fluctuations, regulatory changes, and technological advancements. This comprehensive resource equips decision-makers with the necessary tools to enhance their strategic planning and improve forecasting accuracy. Through this analysis, the report becomes an indispensable asset for anyone looking to navigate the complexities of the Natural Gas market and optimize future strategies.

𝗥𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗙𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗦𝗮𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗽𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁: https://www.imarcgroup.com/natural-gas-pricing-report/requestsample

𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗚𝗮𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱

The rising demand for cleaner energy sources is driving the global market as governments and industries seek to reduce carbon emissions, positioning natural gas as a bridge fuel due to its lower carbon output compared to coal and oil. Continual technological advancements in extraction methods, such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, have significantly increased supply, particularly in regions, such as North America. Rising energy consumption, especially in developing economies, is pushing demand further as natural gas is used for electricity generation, heating, and industrial processes. Additionally, the shift towards liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expanding the market, as it allows for easier transportation and access to markets that are not connected by pipelines.

𝗙𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗡𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗚𝗮𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀

𝗜𝗻 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮:

During the last quarter of 2024, there was a substantial increase in natural gas prices in North America due to various factors. Elevated temperatures led to higher air conditioning usage in both commercial and residential buildings, causing an increased need for natural gas. Reduced storage injections and production limitations from maintenance and well completion delays further affected this demand. The growing export market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) has also reduced domestic supply, contributing to increased prices.

𝗜𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝘀𝗶𝗮 𝗣𝗮𝗰𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻:

Prices in the Asia Pacific area have gone up due to a strong dependence on natural gas for both manufacturing and power generation. Continuing geopolitical tensions continued to decrease the supply of global LNG, ramping up the price increases. China experienced the largest price hikes because of increased industrial demand and high energy usage during the summer.

𝗜𝗻 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀:

Europe experienced a notable increase, primarily caused by political turmoil and difficulties with supply chains. Decreased flow resulted from maintenance work on major pipelines and unexpected shutdowns at critical supply hubs, while global tensions affecting energy trading also played a role. Increasing global interest in LNG, sparked by heatwaves in Asia, redirected supplies away from Europe, resulting in price hikes. Germany faced major price hikes because of its efforts to decrease dependence on Russian gas and challenges with storage reconstruction, resulting in it being the most unpredictable out of all nations.

𝗜𝗻 𝗠𝗘𝗔 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀:

Increased demand and restricted supply led to a notable rise in natural gas costs in the MEA region. The main factors behind the price increase were the growth in industrial activity and the high demand for electricity due to hot temperatures. The region’s focus on transitioning to greener energy sources such as natural gas further raised demand.

𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗔𝗻 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝘁: https://www.imarcgroup.com/request?type=report&id=22409&flag=C

𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹, 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀:

• 𝗔𝘀𝗶𝗮 𝗣𝗮𝗰𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰: China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, Hongkong, Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand

• 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲: Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece

• 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮: United States and Canada

• 𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮: Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru

• 𝗠𝗶𝗱𝗱𝗹𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝘀𝘁 & 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel, Iran, South Africa, Nigeria, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco

𝗡𝗼𝘁𝗲: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲, 𝗱𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗯𝗲 𝗼𝗯𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘂𝗽𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝘂𝘀:

IMARC Group

134 N 4th St. Brooklyn, NY 11249, USA

𝗘𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗹: sales@imarcgroup.com

𝗧𝗲𝗹 𝗡𝗼:(𝗗) +91 120 433 0800

𝗨𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀: +1-631-791-1145

𝗔𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗨𝘀:

IMARC Group is a global management consulting firm that helps the world’s most ambitious changemakers to create a lasting impact. The company provide a comprehensive suite of market entry and expansion services. IMARC offerings include thorough market assessment, feasibility studies, company incorporation assistance, factory setup support, regulatory approvals and licensing navigation, branding, marketing and sales strategies, competitive landscape and benchmarking analyses, pricing and cost research, and procurement research.

This release was published on openPR.

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• Gold price defends $2,600, at its lowest level in three weeks as US CPI data loom.    
• The US Dollar sees a modest pullback, as China stimulus optimism lifts the market mood.
• Gold price cracks 21-day SMA at $2,622 but bullish daily RSI still keeps buyers alive.

Gold price is nursing losses above $2,600 early Thursday after falling for the sixth straight day on Wednesday. The bright metal sits at its lowest level in three weeks in the run-up to the all-important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release due later this Thursday.

All eyes remain on the US CPI inflation data

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets continue to price in an 82% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will opt for a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut in November. The market’s expectations for the next Fed policy move did not change even though the Minutes of the Fed’s September meeting were read dovishly.

The Minutes showed on Wednesday that a substantial majority of officials supported an outsized 50 bps rate cut to balance confidence in inflation with worries over the labor market.

Therefore, the US consumer inflation data for September holds the key to completely ruling out a jumbo Fed rate cut probability, advocated by a surprisingly strong US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which suggested that the labor market is in a healthy condition than initially feared.

The annual CPI is seen rising 2.3% in September after increasing by 2.5% in August. The core CPI is set to hold steady at 3.2% YoY in the same period. On a monthly basis, the US CPI inflation is expected to tick a tad lower to 0.1% in September vs. August’s 0.2%. The core figure is also likely to ease to 0.2%, following a 0.3% growth in August.

A bigger-than-expected decline in both the annual and monthly CPI inflation data could revive hopes for an outsized Fed rate cut next month, triggering a fresh correction in the US Dollar (USD) against its major rivals. Gold price could stage a strong comeback on aggressive Fed’s easing expectations and the potential USD’s demise.

On the other hand, markets could even dial down bets of a 25 bps rate cut in November, if the US CPI data surprises to the upside across the time horizon. In such a scenario, the non-interest-bearing Gold price could be hit the most while the Greenback is expected to see an extended recovery.

Anticipating the main event risk of this week, the US CPI data, traders seem non-committal and refrain from placing fresh bets on the bright metal. Gold price, however, draws some support from the latest news surrounding Chinese stimulus.

On Wednesday, China’s Finance Ministry announced that it will roll out a fiscal stimulus package worth CNY 2 trillion on Saturday to support economic growth. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) launched a security, funds and insurance companies swap facility) for CNY500 billion to boost domestic stock markets on Thursday.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Buyers continue to defend their positions even after Gold price closed Wednesday below the key 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, then at $2,619.

With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) still holding above the 50 level, Gold buyers remain hopeful about a potential turnaround.  

On the downside, the immediate support is seen at the $2,600 threshold. A sustained break below the latter could extend the downside toward the September 20 low of $2,585.

Alternatively, Gold price needs to recapture the 21-day SMA support-turned-resistance, now at $2,623, to revive the uptrend.

The next bullish targets are seen at the $2,650 psychological barrier and the intermittent highs near $2,670.

Oil prices have fallen dramatically in recent weeks, but supply disruptions and optimism around a potential U.S. interest rate cut appear to have halted that downward momentum.

– The marked shift in oil sentiment recently has been to a great deal prompted by a widespread concern of Chinese demand peaking this or next year as LNG displaces diesel in long-haul trucking, EV sales overtaking conventional cars since July and rail expansion eating into jet fuel recovery.

– Chinese refinery runs have been declining for five straight months, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting throughput rates at 13.91 million b/d in August amidst a widespread decline in Shandong teapot runs, as low as 55% last month. 

– Meanwhile, Asian refiners’ margins slumped to the lowest seasonal levels since 2020 as high inventories of diesel and gasoline become an increasingly worrying factor as peak summer demand tapers off.

– China’s clampdown on tax evasion is aggravating the pressure on refiners after a Shandong court ruled two refiners run by state-owned firm Sinochem, the Huaxing and Zhenghe plants totalling 220,000 b/d in capacity, fully bankrupt. 

Market Movers

– US upstream firm APA (NASDAQ:APA) said it would sell non-core assets in the Permian basin to an undisclosed buyer for some $950 million, reducing its debt after the $6.7 billion acquisition of Callon Petroleum.

– Japan’s largest trading company Mitsubishi (TYO:8058) signed a framework agreement with ExxonMobil to join the Baytown blue ammonia and hydrogen project, right after ADNOC signed on, too.

– China’s national oil company PetroChina (SHA:601857) has signed two petroleum sharing contracts with Suriname’s state oil firm Staatsolie for two shallow-water blocks, saying they’ve missed the Guyana bonanza and do not want to miss Suriname.  

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

After several tumultuous weeks, the downhill slide seems to have ended for crude oil futures, with ICE Brent trading relatively rangebound at $72.50 per barrel. Supply disruptions in Libya and the US Gulf of Mexico prevented concerns over China’s economy from triggering an even bigger slide and the US Federal Reserve’s much-anticipated interest rate cut could lift the market mood slightly higher.

Bearish Bets Hit All-Time Lows. Short positions held by hedge funds and other money managers in the ICE Brent futures contract surpassed long ones for the first time on record, with a net short of 12,680 contracts reflecting widespread concerns over Chinese demand and the US economy.

Petrobras’s New Strategy Refocuses on Oil & Gas. The new top financial officer of Brazil’s state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) Fernando Melgarejo said the company’s new 2025-2029 strategic plan would have a more upstream-focused vision to prevent a decline in oil and gas reserves around 2030. 

US Gulf Recovers from Hurricane Francine Impact. Oil and gas producers are resuming production in the US Gulf of Mexico with only 12% of output (and 24 platforms) shut in as of Monday, some 213,000 b/d, as peak closures reached 732,000 b/d last week or 42% of total offshore output. 

Brazil Nears in on Dam Disaster Settlement. Brazil’s government confirmed that it is in talks with mining giants Vale (NYSE:VALE) and BHP (NYSE:BHP) over a potential $18 billion payout for the deadly 2015 Brumadinho dam collapse, ending one of the most protracted mining litigations.  

Colombia Implodes After Court Blocks Offshore Drilling. A Colombian court ordered the halt of drilling operations at the Uchuva-2 offshore well in the gas-rich and untapped offshore zone of the country, saying the operator Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) failed to consult a local Indigenous community.  

Egypt Awards 20-Cargo LNG Tender for Winter. As Egypt seeks to cover its power needs amidst drastically declining domestic gas production, the country’s state energy firm EGPC has bought 20 LNG cargoes for the winter, the first such tender since 2018 when Zohr started to ramp up output.  

US Oil Majors Fight Back Against Consumer Lawsuits. US oil majors including ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) defeated an appeal by consumers that accused them of colluding with former US President Donald Trump and OPEC+, citing a lack of proof of antitrust violations. 

Saudi NOC Builds Up LNG Portfolio. Saudi Arabia’s national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) will lift its stake in LNG investment firm MidOcean Energy to 49%, co-owned with EIG, and also fund its acquisition of a new 15% stake in Peru LNG from Hunt Oil Company to bring its stake to 35%. 

Can Gold Production Peak Soon? According to S&P Global, the relative scarcity of new gold discoveries since 2020 could lead to a gold production peak in 2026 at 110 million ounces, driven by Australia and Canada mostly, subsequently falling to 103 million ounces in 2028.

UAE Eyes Expansion into India’s SPR Reserves. Following a visit of UAE top officials to India, the country’s oil company ADNOC is eyeing opportunities to expand its crude storage volumes in India’s underground SPR caverns as Delhi seeks to triple its reserves from the current 5.86 million barrels.  

Germany’s Wind Power Auction Beats Expectations. Germany’s Federal Network Agency stated it had awarded contracts for almost 3 GW of onshore wind energy in its latest annual auction, the highest volume ever, with the average awarded price reaching 7.33 €cent/KWh, a couple of cents below the maximum allowed limit. 

Russia Lands Landmark Bolivia Lithium Deal. One of the most coveted lithium reserves globally, Bolivia’s Salar de Uyuni will see increasing Russian involvement after the country’s lithium firm YLB signed a $976 million deal to build its first direct lithium extraction plant, with a capacity of 14ktpa.

South Sudan Resumes Flows Through War-Torn Sudan. The presidential office of South Sudan announced that the country and its northern neighbor Sudan have made headway in restarting the halted pipeline that brings its crude to the export markets, repairing damaged areas as government forces continue to clash with RSF forces.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

• Silver remains above $30.12 despite losses of over 0.30%, with downside risks looming after Tuesday’s sharp 3.28% drop.
• Momentum favors sellers, with the next key support levels at $30.12 and the psychological $30.00 mark.
• Buyers need to reclaim $30.50 to target $31.00, with a break above $31.77 necessary to shift the bias back to the upside.

Silver consolidated at around the weekly lows on Wednesday, posting losses of over 0.30%, but it remains above the October 8 daily low of $30.12 late in the North American session. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $30.61, sponsored by higher US Treasury bond yields following the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes.

The minutes showed some officials were looking for a 25 basis points rate cut at the September meeting. According to the minutes, officials agreed that the larger cut approved at the meeting shouldn’t be a sign of concern over the economic outlook or viewed as a signal that the Fed was prepared to rapidly lower interest rates.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price stopped its downfall following Tuesday’s over 3.28% loss. Although this could open the door for some consolidation, downside risks remain.

Momentum is still favoring sellers, according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI). With that said, the path of least resistance in the short term is tilted to the downside.

The XAG/USD’s next support will be $30.12. Once broken, sellers could challenge the psychological figure of $30.00. If surpassed, the confluence of the 100 and 50-day moving averages (DMAs) would be up next at $29.73 and $29.53, respectively.

Conversely, if XAG/USD buyers move in and push prices above $30.50, they could lift the grey’s metal price toward $31.00. However, to shift the bias to upward, they must clear the $31.77 October 8 peak.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

• Silver remains above $30.12 despite losses of over 0.30%, with downside risks looming after Tuesday’s sharp 3.28% drop.
• Momentum favors sellers, with the next key support levels at $30.12 and the psychological $30.00 mark.
• Buyers need to reclaim $30.50 to target $31.00, with a break above $31.77 necessary to shift the bias back to the upside.

Silver consolidated at around the weekly lows on Wednesday, posting losses of over 0.30%, but it remains above the October 8 daily low of $30.12 late in the North American session. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $30.61, sponsored by higher US Treasury bond yields following the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes.

The minutes showed some officials were looking for a 25 basis points rate cut at the September meeting. According to the minutes, officials agreed that the larger cut approved at the meeting shouldn’t be a sign of concern over the economic outlook or viewed as a signal that the Fed was prepared to rapidly lower interest rates.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price stopped its downfall following Tuesday’s over 3.28% loss. Although this could open the door for some consolidation, downside risks remain.

Momentum is still favoring sellers, according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI). With that said, the path of least resistance in the short term is tilted to the downside.

The XAG/USD’s next support will be $30.12. Once broken, sellers could challenge the psychological figure of $30.00. If surpassed, the confluence of the 100 and 50-day moving averages (DMAs) would be up next at $29.73 and $29.53, respectively.

Conversely, if XAG/USD buyers move in and push prices above $30.50, they could lift the grey’s metal price toward $31.00. However, to shift the bias to upward, they must clear the $31.77 October 8 peak.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

The OPEC+ group may not have any options left to counter the extreme bearishness in oil markets by further restricting supply. Bullish sentiment is likely to re-emerge if there is good news on the demand front. 

For now, good news about oil demand looks a distant prospect, especially after the end of the peak summer driving season. Concerns about the Chinese economy and the country’s oil demand add to worries about slowing economic growth in the developed economies to depress markets. These concerns have prompted analysts and investment banks to lower their oil price forecasts for the end of the year.  

OPEC Starts Trimming Demand Growth Forecasts

Following the recent slide in oil toward the low $70s per barrel, the OPEC+ alliance delayed the beginning of the unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of cuts by two months until December 2024. 

The decision did little to lift oil prices—the market was half expecting a delay, especially after OPEC cut in August its global oil demand growth view citing weakness in China.  

Related: Oil Prices Rise on Jumbo Fed Rate Cut

In its monthly report for September, OPEC further trimmed its demand growth outlook and further weighed on oil prices and market sentiment.    

In just two months, demand worries have flipped the bullish view of traders and speculators to the most bearish positioning in petroleum futures in recorded history since 2011. 

Money managers seem to have concluded that OPEC+ can’t or won’t announce additional production cuts to prop up prices, energy analyst John Kemp writes in his blog.

Most Bearish Positioning Ever

Signs of weak demand and weakening refining margins have weighed on oil prices and market sentiment, prompting speculators and money managers to slash their bullish bet on oil futures to the lowest on record dating back to 2011. 

In the week ended September 10, money managers held a net short position in Brent for the first time in recorded history, since 2011. 

The net length—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—flipped to a net short in the reporting week to September 10, as speculators and traders remained concerned about lower-than-expected global oil demand growth. Weakness in Chinese economic indicators and falling refining margins exacerbated the bearish sentiment on oil in the first two weeks of September.  

Moreover, persistent weakness across the refined fuel market helped drive an increase in the net short position in the European and U.S. diesel futures. 

“Combining the five major crude and fuel contracts, the net long of these fell to the lowest level since 2011, when the ICE Exchange started to collect Brent and gas oil data,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote this week, commenting on the latest commitment of traders (COT) report. 

Ripe for Rally?

Of course, the exceptionally bearish positioning in oil lays the foundations for a rally in which traders will look to cover their shorts. However, the market will need a flip in the narrative in demand for a rebound. 

Right now, there aren’t signs that demand is accelerating while supply continues to be steady. If the three OPEC+ overproducers, Iraq, Russia, and Kazakhstan, stick to their compensation schedules, some supply would come off the market in the coming months. 

But will this be enough to prevent an oversupply next year? 

Many banks say no. 

Weaker-than-expected demand is set to tip the oil market into a surplus over the next five quarters, Macquarie said last week as it lowered its Brent and WTI oil forecasts for the rest of the year.   

“As we enter shoulder and turnaround season, the ‘last hurrah’ for oil in the form of Q3 tightness is quickly fading as our balances contemplate heavy oversupply across the next five quarters,” Macquarie analysts wrote in a note. 

Just two weeks after lowering its Brent estimate to $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter, Morgan Stanley cut its forecast again, now expecting the international benchmark to average $75 a barrel in the last quarter of the year. Analysts at Morgan Stanley see rising headwinds on the demand side, which has been their key reason for cutting their Q4 oil price forecast.

Weaker Chinese oil demand, high inventories, and rising U.S. shale production have prompted Goldman Sachs to reduce its expected range for Brent oil prices by $5 to $70-$85 per barrel.

Citi expects oil at $60 per barrel in 2025 if OPEC+ doesn’t implement additional cuts to its production. 

So far, the group has not signaled any intention to deepen the output cuts. 

Analysts assume that OPEC+ will begin unwinding some of the current cuts early next year. Combined with rising non-OPEC+ supply, this will tip the market into oversupply for most of 2025, according to banks and analysts. 

A rebound in demand would be most welcome by oil bulls, but as-is, no signs have emerged in recent weeks about positive demand figures. Refining margins are falling and leading to reduced refinery run rates in Asia and Europe.

By Tsveana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

The time of year is typically bullish, not only due to the end of hurricane season, but the fact that colder temperatures are coming to the northeastern part of the United States. That of course drives up demand and therefore price. Keep in mind that the CFD that you are trading in the natural gas markets are based on futures contracts. And therefore, you’re actually thinking about winter at this point.

Short-term pullbacks, I do think find plenty of support near the $2.80 level, and then again at the $2.65 level. On the upside, I think that the $3.15 level will continue to be a little bit resistive, but I think we’re basically just digesting a lot of the gains that we’ve recently seen, and when you look at the action over the last two weeks or so, we have seen a shot higher, but it does look a little limp, so I think it wouldn’t take too much to cause the pullback to occur, which of course I think only ends up offering value.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver attracts some sellers for the third successive day on Wednesday.
• The technical setup supports prospects for a further depreciating move.
• Any attempted recovery is likely to remain capped near the $31.00 mark. 

Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of the $30.00 psychological mark, or a three-week low and trades with a negative bias for the third successive day on Wednesday. The white metal is currently placed just above the mid-$30.00s and seems vulnerable to prolonging its retracement slide from the highest level since December 2012 touched last week.

From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the $32.00 mark constitute the formation of a bearish multiple-tops pattern on the daily chart. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have started gaining negative traction and validate the near-term bearish outlook for the XAG/USD. Hence, a subsequent slide below the $30.00 mark, towards testing the next relevant support near the $29.75-$29.60 confluence, looks like a distinct possibility.

The latter comprises the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA, which if broken decisively should pave the way for a further near-term depreciating move. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the fall towards the $29.00 mark and eventually drop to the $28.60-$28.50 support zone. 

On the flip side, any attempted recovery might now confront immediate resistance and remain capped near the $31.00 mark. That said, a sustained move beyond could trigger a short-covering move and lift the XAG/USD to the $31.55 hurdle en route to the $31.75-$31.80 region and the $32.00 mark. This is followed by the $32.25 supply zone, above which the white metal could aim to challenge the multi-year peak and make a fresh attempt to conquer the $33.00 round figure.

Silver daily chart

TATACOFFEE Share Price Target 2024

In 2023, the majority of Indian stocks, including TATACOFFEE, saw an amazing bull run. The market’s optimistic outlook is expected to persist in the first quarter of 2024, despite the first months of consolidation. Technical research indicates that TATACOFFEE’s minimum share price objective for 2024 is anticipated to be ₹366.12, while the highest price target is anticipated to be ₹456.76.

Quick Info Of TATACOFFEE Share Price Forecast for 2024

• Tata Coffee Ltd.’s initial price objective for 2024 is predict to be ₹366.12.
• Tata Coffee Ltd.’s mid-year price forecast might reach ₹422.77 in a favourable market.
• Based on positive market trends, Tata Coffee Ltd.’s price objective is anticipated to potentially reach ₹456.76 by the end of 2024.

TATACOFFEE Share Price Target 2025 Monthly Wise

By January 2025, the share price of TATACOFFEE is anticipate to have increase to Rs. 466. By December 2025, if the industry trend and macro and microeconomic factors continue to support them, the target price of Tata Coffee Ltd. might rise to Rs 523.

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Quick Info Of TATACOFFEE Share Price Forecast for 2025

• Tata Coffee Ltd.’s first price objective is anticipate to be ₹466 in 2025.
• Tata Coffee Ltd.’s mid-year price forecast might reach ₹438 in a favourable market.
• With optimistic market trends, the price objective for Tata Coffee Ltd. is anticipate to potentially reach ₹523 by the end of 2025.

TATACOFFEE Share Price Target 2026 Monthly Wise

Technical analysis indicates that TATACOFFEE’s minimum share price objective is anticipated to reach Rs. 533, while the maximum value that TATACOFFEE shares can achieve is Rs. 600.

Quick Info Of TATACOFFEE Share Price Forecast for 2026

• Tata Coffee Ltd.’s initial price objective in 2026 is anticipate to be ₹533.
• Tata Coffee Ltd.’s mid-year price forecast might reach ₹502 in a favourable market.
• Based on positive market trends, Tata Coffee Ltd.’s price objective could potentially reach ₹600 by the end of 2026.

TATACOFFEE Share Price Target 2027 Monthly Wise

Based on Fibonacci estimates, Tata Coffee Ltd. (TATACOFFEE) is expect to trade between ₹612 and ₹575 in the first half of 2027. The price of a TATACOFFEE share could hit ₹686 by the second half of 2027.

ITC Share Price Target 2024 

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Quick Info Of TATACOFFEE Share Price Forecast for 2027

• The initial price target for Tata Coffee Ltd in 2027 is project to be ₹612.
• With favorable market conditions, the mid-year price target for Tata Coffee Ltd could reach ₹575.
• By the end of 2027, the price target for Tata Coffee Ltd is expect to potentially reach ₹686, considering bullish market trends.

TATACOFFEE Share Price Target 2028 Monthly Wise

Quick Info Of TATACOFFEE Share Price Forecast for 2028

• Tata Coffee Ltd.’s initial price objective is expect to be ₹700 in 2028.
• Tata Coffee Ltd.’s mid-year price forecast might reach ₹658 in a favourable market.
• Based on positive market trends, Tata Coffee Ltd’s price goal could potentially reach ₹784 by the end of 2028.

TATACOFFEE Share Price Target 2029 Monthly Wise

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Quick Info Of TATACOFFEE Share Price Forecast for 2029

• The initial price target for Tata Coffee Ltd in 2029 is project to be ₹800.
• With favorable market conditions, the mid-year price target for Tata Coffee Ltd could reach ₹751.
• By the end of 2029, the price target for Tata Coffee Ltd is expect to potentially reach ₹896, considering bullish market trends.

TATACOFFEE Share Price Target 2030 Monthly Wise

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Tata Coffee Share Price Target Important Information

• In 2024, Tata Coffee Ltd (TATACOFFEE) is expected to experience strong growth, with an initial target of ₹366.12. However, market volatility might lead to fluctuations mid-year, peaking at ₹434.1.
• For Tata Coffee Ltd in 2025, a bullish trend might take the stock to a mid-year target of ₹456. Follow by a steady climb to ₹523.
• In 2026, a temporary decline in early months for Tata Coffee Ltd is possible. With a recovery expect by mid-year, aiming for ₹522.
• Anticipating mixed trends for Tata Coffee Ltd in 2027. With rapid movements both upward and downward, yet maintaining an overall upward trajectory towards ₹686.
• For 2028 and 2029, Tata Coffee Ltd is expect to show strong and steady growth. Potentially breaking past previous highs and setting new records.
• By 2030, the cumulative impact of market dynamics could lead Tata Coffee Ltd to a substantial year-end target. Surpassing previous expectations.

Final Words on Tata Coffee Ltd (TATACOFFEE) Share Price Target up to 2030

To sum up, using the most recent trade data and algorithms. We have produced the TATACOFFEE share price target for 2024, 2025, 2026, and up to 2030. For the upcoming years, these goals represent possible levels of support and resistance.

It’s important to remember that although technical analysis forms the basis of these price estimates. News and other market factors may also have an impact on the stock’s performance. Thus, rather than serving as financial advice. These fictitious aims should be used as guides. Make sure you do your own research before investing in anything.