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The natural gas markets have rallied significantly during the course of the trading session on Friday, as we have broken above the $3 level, at least initially. That being said, there is a massive amount of resistance above as we had formed a double top back in June, so it’ll be interesting to see if we can get above there. The Relative Strength Index is in an overbought condition, so that also comes into the picture, but really when I look at this, the thing that I would pay the most attention to isn’t even on the chart. It’s the hurricane that just ripped through the Gulf of Mexico area.
The question is, did that damage and slow down production enough to drive prices higher? Probably in the short term, but I do recognize that we are getting much closer to the end of this run than we were at the beginning. I took profit yesterday, I’m okay with that. I don’t have any reason to chase this. If we break out to the upside, so be it, I’ll wave goodbye to the trend. Ultimately though, I do think we are about to hit a bit of a brick wall when it comes to resistance, and I think in that environment, you have to be very cautious.
Gold price treads water while within a striking distance of the new record high of $2,686, as buyers take a breather and consolidate the weekly gains in the countdown to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data release later on Friday.
Despite the recent dovish comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and mixed US economic data, market expectations for a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in November ease, with the odds of such a move now standing at 50%, down from about 62% seen a day ago, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.
Fading bets of an outsized Fed rate cut at the next meeting seem to fuel a fresh US Dollar (USD) recovery, checking the record-setting rally in Gold price. However, Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s dovish remarks overnight and a risk-on market profile, courtesy of fresh Chinese stimulus measures, continue to limit the Gold price downside.
The next directional move in Gold price and the expectations of a large November Fed rate cut hinge on the upcoming Fed’s most preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE Price Index, due later in American trading on Friday. The US core PCE inflation is seen steady at 0.2% MoM in August while annually, the index is likely to tick higher a bit to 2.7% in the same period from July’s 2.6%.
A hotter-than-expected core PCE inflation data could push back expectations against a November rate reduction by the Fed, initiating a sustained recovery in the US Dollar against its major rivals from over one-yeat highs. In that case, a steep corrective decline could ensue in Gold price from near-lifetime highs. Conversely, a downside surprise in the core readings could ramp up the odds for a large Fed rate cut yet again, setting another record high in Gold price at the expense of the USD.
The reaction to the PCE inflation report, however, could be temporary as the end-of-the-month, as well as, the quarter-end flows could come into play and stir markets. Traders are also likely to resort to profit-taking in Gold price ahead of next week’s high-impact US Nonfarm Payrolls data.
Further, a speech by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman could add to the potential volatility around the Gold price.
Nothing changes for Gold price from a short-term technical perspective, as it remains in extremely overbought territory, suggesting that a meaningful correction could be in the offing.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently trading above the 76 level, warranting caution to buyers.
If buyers regain lost momentum, acceptance above the record high of $2,686 is critical to unleashing further upside toward the $2,700 barrier, followed by the $2,750 psychological mark.
Conversely, any correction in Gold price will likely test the September 24 low of $2,623, below which the $2,600 threshold will come into play.
Further south, Gold sellers could target the September 20 low of $2,585.
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures.” Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is starting to show more momentum to the upside, while price had been dropping, so the question is now whether or not we are getting ready to form some type of bottoming pattern, which would make a certain amount of sense considering that the longer-term charts have shown that the $65 level has been massive support, at least over the last couple of years.
The crude oil market will continue to measure economic movement in the world, and of course potential demand. The employment situation in the United States continues to disintegrate, so it does suggest that perhaps there is going to be a certain amount of downward pressure in this market, as the demand for crude oil tends to fall when you start to see a bit of a recessionary type of market.
However, it’s worth noting that we have bounced quite a bit in the middle of the day, and therefore it’s likely that there is going to be plenty of support between here and the $65 level. If we were to break down below that $65 level, then it’s likely that the market could really start to fall apart, and I think it would also have a lot of negative influence on other markets as well, so the crude oil market is also worth paying close attention to as it can give you a bit of a “heads up” as to how the overall economic momentum continues to break in one direction or the other.
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Silver (XAG/USD) extends the overnight modest pullback from the $32.70 area, or its highest level since December 2012 and remains under some selling pressure during the Asian session on Friday. The white metal, however, attracts some dip-buyers at lower levels and currently trades just below the $32.00 mark, down 0.25% for the day.
Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone. This, along with the recent breakout through a short-term descending trend-line resistance, favor bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside. That said, Thursday’s failure to build on the momentum beyond the $32.45-$32.50 region warrants some caution.
The aforementioned area might continue to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the overnight swing high, around the $32.70 area. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for a move towards reclaiming the $33.00 mark and lift the XAG/USD further towards the $33.45 intermediate hurdle en route to the December 2012 swing high, around the $33.85 region.
On the flip side, the $31.60-$31.55 zone now seems to have emerged as an immediate support. Any further decline could be seen as a buying opportunity around the $31.25 area and remain limited near the $31.00 mark. A convincing break below the latter could drag the XAG/USD to the $30.60-$30.55 zone en route to the $30.00 psychological mark and the $29.70-$29.65 area, or the descending trend-line resistance breakpoint, now turned support.
The latter now coincides with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and should act as a key pivotal point. Failure to defend the said support levels will suggest that the XAG/USD has topped out and pave the way for a meaningful corrective decline in the near term.
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
A decisive decline below today’s low points to a deeper pullback. The most recent trend high price range of 2.67 to 2.65 marks the first potential support zone. It is followed by the 50% retracement of the most recent upswing at 2.55. The lower 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2.48 can be watched along with this week’s low at 2.46 and a prior interim swing high at 2.44. Together, they generate a potential support zone from 2.48 to 2.44.
Following a retracement and bullish reversal natural gas may have a chance to test the top trendline and possibly breakout through it. Otherwise, natural gas may continue to trade range bound within a relatively large developing symmetrical triangle. The bottom line of the triangle was tightened recently following the late-August higher swing low. That swing low marks a new and higher trendline for the bottom of a triangle.
Keep an eye on the internal uptrend line marking support of the most recent trend. The 20-Day MA has recently converged with the line. This is the markets way of telling us to pay attention to the line. Of course, the 20-Day MA also has significance as it shows the near-term trend strengthening. Also, the 50-Day MA has started confirming strength as it began to turn back up earlier this week.
Natural gas has been flirting with the 200-Day MA around a year ago. Each rally above the 200-Day line has gone only so far before the price of natural gas is pulled back to the line. The same thing may happen now. However, notice that the 200-Day line is now flat and that happens before a turn up.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher as China, the world’s largest metals market, announces plans for additional stimulus measures to bolster its economy, offsetting the diminishing effects of Tuesday’s earlier actions. Silver price trades around $32.00 per troy ounce during Thursday’s European hours.
China plans to inject over CNY 1 trillion in capital into its largest state banks, which are facing challenges such as shrinking margins, declining profits, and increasing bad loans. This substantial capital infusion would mark the first of its kind since the 2008 global financial crisis.
The safe-haven Silver also receives support from rising tensions in the Middle East. An Israeli airstrike on Beirut killed a senior Hezbollah commander on Tuesday, raising fears of a broader conflict as cross-border rocket attacks intensified.
Meanwhile, the United States, France, and several allies have called for an immediate 21-day ceasefire along the Israel-Lebanon border “Blue Line” and expressed support for a ceasefire in Gaza, following intense discussions at the United Nations on Wednesday.
The non-yielding Silver gained support following last week’s substantial 50 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Moreover, rising expectations of additional Fed rate cuts in 2024 are enhancing the appeal of the commodity for investors amid low opportunity cost.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a roughly 50% probability that the Fed will implement a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts, bringing rates down to a range of 4.0-4.25% by year’s end. This has weakened the US Dollar (USD), making Silver more affordable for buyers using other currencies and boosting demand for the dollar-denominated commodity.
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
U.S. crude oil prices fell nearly 3% on Thursday on a report that Saudi Arabia is committed to pressing ahead with production increases later this year.
Saudi is prepared to ditch its unofficial oil price target of $100 per barrel, people familiar with the kingdom’s thinking told The Financial Times. Saudi officials are ready to increase oil production in December even if the move results in a prolonged period of low oil prices, the people said.
Here are Thursday’s closing energy prices:
Prices are also under pressure on the expectation that oil production will rise in Libya. Factions in the North African country reached a deal Wednesday to appoint a new central bank governor. A political dispute over who should lead the bank has led to production disruptions.
The prospect of rising production is set against a backdrop of soft demand in China, the world’s largest crude importer and second-largest consumer. Oil prices rallied earlier in the week after Beijing announced a new stimulus package.
Spot Gold hit $2,685.45 on Thursday, yet another record high. XAU/USD currently trades around $2,671 as investors keep selling the battered US Dollar (USD). The United States (US) published some macroeconomic encouraging figures, albeit nothing shocking. The numbers provided temporal support to the USD at the beginning of the American session, but the Greenback quickly resumed its decline.
The US reported that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended September 20 rose by 218K, better than the 219K previous and the 225K expected. Also, the country confirmed an annualized pace of growth of 3% in the year to June, according to the final estimate of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Finally, Durable Goods Orders posted 0.0% in August, better than the -2.6% expected.
Meanwhile, multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) officials hit the wires in different events. Nevertheless, no one delivered fresh hints on monetary policy. In fact, most refrained from discussing it after cutting interest rates by a whopping 50 basis points (bps) when they met last week. Such silence left speculative interest in its belief that policymakers would deliver a similar trim in November.
Further harming the USD, Wall Street turned positive. After the back and forth offered in the first half of the week, US indexes seem to have found their way north.
The daily chart for XAU/USD shows it keeps posting higher lows and higher highs, supporting another leg north. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head firmly north within overbought levels, showing no signs of upward exhaustion yet, Meanwhile the pair keeps developing above firmly bullish moving averages which stand far below the current level. Overall, the risk of a downward correction has increased despite the lack of technical signs about it.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, it is clear that bulls retain control. An intraday slide met buyers around a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), now providing dynamic support at around 2,650. At the same time, the 100 and 200 SMAs accelerated higher, far below the shorter ones, reflecting persistent upside strength. Finally, the Momentum indicator aims marginally higher within positive levels, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator retreats modestly from extreme overbought readings, drawing minor divergences. Such divergences seem not enough to support a decline but are a first warning about a potential decline in the upcoming sessions.
Support levels: 2,662.80 2,650.00 2,638.10
Resistance levels: 2,685.00 2,700.00 2,715.00
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to gain any meaningful traction and oscillates in a narrow trading band, around the $31.80-$31.85 region during the Asian session on Thursday. The white metal, meanwhile, remains within the striking distance of a four-month peak touched on Wednesday and seems poised to prolong the upward trajectory witnessed over the past two weeks or so.
From a technical perspective, the overnight sustained strength beyond the $31.40-$31.45 supply zone comes on the back of the recent breakout through a short-term descending trend-line resistance. This, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone, validates the positive outlook and suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside.
Hence, a subsequent move beyond the $32.00 mark, towards retesting a one-decade top, around mid-$32.00s touched in May, looks like a distinct possibility. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for a further appreciating move towards conquering the $33.00 round-figure mark for the first time since December 2012.
On the flip side, weakness below the overnight swing low, around the $31.60-$31.55 region, is likely to find some support near the $31.25 area ahead of the $31.00 mark. A convincing break below the latter could drag the XAG/USD to the $30.60-$30.55 zone. The downfall could extend further towards the $30.00 psychological mark before the white metal drops to the $29.70-$29.65 area, or the descending trend-line resistance breakpoint, now turned support.
The latter now coincides with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively will suggest that the XAG/USD has topped out in the near term and pave the way for a deeper corrective decline.
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold price extends its consolidative mode just below the record high reached near $2670 on Wednesday, as buyers turn cautious in the lead-up to a raft of speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers due later on Thursday.
Amongst several Fed officials taking up the rostrum, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s pre-recorded opening remarks will hold the key for gauging the size of the next interest rate cut, especially with markets pricing in about a 62% chance that the Fed will reduce the rate by another 50 basis points (bps) in November.
The dovish Fed outlook was further endorsed by the recent commentary from Fed Governor Adriana Kuglar, who said during her overnight appearance that she “strongly supported” the Fed’s decision to cut the interest rates by a half point last week. Kugler added that she “will support additional rate cuts going forward.”
Recent Fedspeak combined with weak US Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence and regional activity data ramped up bets for another jumbo rate cut by the Fed at its next policy meeting.
The Fed’s dovishness and China’s stimulus optimism re-emerge early Thursday, checking the previous recovery in the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields while fuelling a minor Gold price uptick. The fate of Gold price hinges on the upcoming Fed commentaries, as traders refrain from placing further bets amid extremely overbought conditions on the daily chart.
Ahead of the Fedspeak, the US Durable Goods Orders, final Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the weekly Jobless Claims will provide some trading incentives to Gold price. Risk sentiment will also play a pivotal role, as the focus will shift to Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release after Powell’s remarks.
Gold price staged a temporary pullback from all-time highs, as the US Dollar staged an impressive rebound from 14-month lows against its major rivals on fading Chinese stimulus-led market optimism. Traders also resorting to taking profits on the USD shorts ahead of the key speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Nothing changes for Gold price from a short-term technical perspective, as it remains in extremely overbought territory, suggesting that a meaningful correction could be in the offing.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) flirts with the 76 level, at the moment.
If buyers regain lost momentum, acceptance above the record high near $2,670 is critical to unleashing further upside toward the $2,700 barrier.
Conversely, any correction in Gold price will likely test the September 24 low of $2,623, below which the $2,600 threshold will come into play.
Further south, Gold sellers could target the September 20 low of $2,585.
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.