There is no change on copper price, despite forming mixed trading due to its stability above the extra support near $5.1300, increasing the chances of its activation with the positivity of the main indicators.

Stochastic stability within the overbought level will provide new positive momentum to ease the mission of resuming the bullish attack, reminding you that the stability of the next main target near $5.5000, while the decline below the current support might force it to form temporary corrective trading, and there is a chance for the decline towards $4.9500 reaching the main support near $4.7500.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.1850 and $5.5000

Trend forecast: Bullish

20-Day Breakdown Confirmation

Tuesday’s move decisively sliced through the 20-day average at $4.68, with a daily close below set to confirm the breakdown. Combined with the sharp reversal from last week’s $5.50 extreme, this failure points squarely to continued downside momentum.

Weekly Reversal Activated

The decline also triggered a one-week bearish reversal below last week’s $4.76 low, breaking the multi-month pattern of higher weekly highs and lows. A close beneath that level locks in the weekly shift and reinforces bearish dominance across timeframes.

The trajectory now favors a relatively swift test of the next major support zone around the recent swing low at $4.24 and the rising 10-week average near $4.18, with nearby June levels around $4.15 adding potential reinforcement.

Deeper Correction Targets

After the prolonged and extended rally from late-October, corrective action looks warranted. A confirmed 20-day break opens the 50-day average at $4.01—currently converging with a rising top channel line—as the next logical downside price magnet. Should that fail, the 200-day average at $3.58, aligned with a long-term uptrend line untouched since late-October, enters focus as significant deeper support.

Outlook

Two days of heavy selling have flipped the short-term structure firmly bearish with the 20-day and weekly breakdowns confirming momentum now favors lower prices. Look for $4.24–$4.18 first, then $4.01 and potentially $3.58 on continued weakness; only a rapid reclaim of the 20-day average would begin to neutralize the current bearish shift.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

(Platts)–09Dec2025/441 pm EST/2141 GMT **Agency to ‘modernize’ Short-Term Energy Outlook **EIA raises Q1 gas marketed production forecast by 1.1 Bcf/d The US Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for US spot natural gas prices in late 2025 and early 2026, citing a December cold snap that pushed up its estimate of gas used for space heating this winter. The agency, in its December Short-Term Energy Outlook, lifted its forecast for Q4 Henry Hub natural gas spot prices by 36 cents to $3.87/MMBtu. The Q1 forecast also rose 37 cents from the previous month’s estimates to $4.35 /MMBtu. The agency said the cold hitting the US this December will drive Henry Hub spot prices to average nearly $4.30/MMBtu this winter, more than 40 cents/MMBtu above the November forecast. “Because of the colder weather, we now forecast the residential and commercial sectors will consume 6% more natural gas in December than we forecast last month, reducing the amount of natural gas held in storage.” While the US started the winter season with 4% more working gas in storage than the five-year average, the EIA expects withdrawals in December to be 580 Bcf, or 28% above the five-year-average. However, the EIA expects rising production to continue into 2026, which will help moderate prices, compared to the expectations in the November outlook. “We expect the Henry Hub spot price to average almost $4.50/MMBtu in 4Q26, down 5% from last month’s forecast,” the report said. The agency forecast Henry Hub natural gas prices would average $3.56/MMBtu for full-year 2025 and $4.01/MMBtu in 2026, compared with the previous month’s estimates of $3.47/MMBtu in 2025 and $4.02 /MMBtu in 2026. On the supply side, the agency raised its gas production forecast from November estimates, citing its changed assumptions about gas-to-oil ratios (GORs). “Specifically, we raised our expectations of GORs in the Permian region based on recent production trends, leading to more overall natural gas production in our forecast for 2026.” Dry gas production is forecast to average 109.1 Bcf/d in 2026, up from the November estimate of 107.8 Bcf/d. The agency raised by 700 MMcf/d to 120.6 Bcf/d its natural gas marketed production estimate for the US in the fourth quarter of 2025. The Q1 2026 production forecast increased by 1.1 Bcf/d to 119.6 Bcf/d. Gas inventories are now forecast to conclude the winter season at 2 Tcf, topping the five-year average by 9%. On the demand side, the EIA raised the natural gas consumption estimates by 500 MMcf/d to 94.3 Bcf/d for Q4, but lowered the estimate by 700 MMcf/d to 105.6 Bcf/d for Q1. The increased natural gas price forecast also prompted the EIA to update its estimates for winter heating costs, with higher total costs expected for homes heated primarily by gas. Average fuel expenditures for those heating with gas are now estimated to average a total of $671 for the November-March period, 3% above last winter’s costs. Those heating with electricity are estimated to pay an average of $1,144 this winter, up 5% from last year, according to the update. REVAMPING THE OUTLOOK Alongside the STEO, the agency also announced plans to “modernize” its “core short-term forecast model,” including “modern data architecture with automated data flows, internal visualization tools, and comprehensive documentation,” according to a release. The agency noted that the current model underpinning the outlook was “built a quarter-century ago.” It plans to undergo the modernization process in stages, beginning with a new upstream model in the spring of 2026 and “full completion” in 2027. “EIA is decisively accelerating toward a more integrated and timely forecasting system that better reflects the evolving role of the United States in global energy markets,” EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said in a statement. The news came days after Abbey, appointed by US President Donald Trump and sworn in as the 11th EIA Administrator Sept. 25, outlined his wider plans for changes at the agency. Speaking in an interview at the Center for Strategic and International Studies Dec. 4, Abbey said the EIA had “too many” products and “quite a bit of redundancy.” He asserted the agency needed to update and streamline its data collection processes and discard unused tools, but reiterated the importance of the agency’s monthly forecasts, market surveys, and Annual Energy Outlook. “There are lots of things EIA does because we were asked to do so 10 years ago, 20 years ago, and we still do it, because that’s what we do,” Abbey said in the interview. “I think people have kicked the can down the road on modernizing our system architecture for far too long.” “EIA is very good about collecting missions like barnacles on the hull of a ship,” he continued. “It is not so good at discarding them.” ELECTRICITY The EIA forecasts that nationwide electricity generation will grow by 2.4% in 2025 and by 1.7% in 2026. The generation growth forecast for 2026 is down from a roughly 3% year-over-year increase predicted in the previous month’s STEO, a reduction driven by how much large-load electricity demand has come online so far this year and its implications for near-term growth, the agency said. The updated projections for generation growth in 2025-26, should they come to fruition, would continue an upward trend seen in recent years after a decade of relatively flat growth, the EIA said. US electric power sector generation has grown by around 2% each year since 2021 after falling by an average of 0.3% annually between 2010 and 2020. The bulk of the generation growth is a result of increasing power demand from data centers and other large-load customers in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and the PJM Interconnection markets. The EIA forecasts that PJM power demand will increase by 3.3% in both 2025 and 2026, while ERCOT demand will rise by 5.0% in 2025 and 9.6% in 2026. The ERCOT demand growth forecast was notably revised downward from 6.0% in 2025 and 15.7% in 2026 in the November outlook. The surging demand in these regions is expected to have a significant effect on the mix of sources for power generation. Most of the growing demand in PJM is expected to be met by increasing generation from coal and solar, up 23% and 63%, respectively, between 2024 and 2026, the EIA said. The agency forecasts that solar power will be the fastest growing source of energy in ERCOT at an increase of 92% from 2024-26. Natural gas is the large source of generation in both ERCOT and PJM and is expected growth by 2% in each between 2024 and 2026, the EIA said. — Maya Weber, maya.weber@spglobal.com; Eamonn Brennan, eamonn.brennan@spglobal.com; Ronnie Turner, ronnie.turner@spglobal.com– Edited by Sarah Smith, newsdesk@spglobal.com–Platts Electricity Alert–

March arabica coffee (KCH26) today is down -10.45 (-2.70%), and January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) is down -47 (-1.03%).

Coffee prices are retreating today on the prospects for rains in Brazil, which are supportive for coffee crop development and bearish for prices.  Climatempo today forecasts heavy showers toward the end of the week and into next week for Brazil’s coffee-growing regions.

Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis.

Coffee prices had moved higher over the past two sessions as Brazilian coffee remains subject to substantial US tariffs.  The Trump administration announced last Friday that it dropped tariffs on commodities not grown in the US, including coffee, but that relief only applied to 10% reciprocal tariffs.  Brazil’s vice president said that Brazilian coffee exports to the US are still subject to the separate 40% tariff imposed by the Trump administration on Brazil on “national emergency” grounds related in part to Brazil’s prosecution of former President Bolsonaro.  The Trump administration has yet to clarify whether US coffee importers are exempt from paying the 40% tariffs.

Shrinking ICE coffee inventories are also supportive of prices.  The US tariffs imposed on US coffee imports from Brazil have led to a sharp drawdown in ICE coffee inventories.  ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags on Tuesday.  ICE robusta coffee inventories fell to a 4-month low of 5,648 lots on Monday.  American buyers are voiding new contracts for Brazilian coffee purchases due to the tariffs on US imports from Brazil, thereby tightening US supplies, as about a third of America’s unroasted coffee comes from Brazil.  US purchases of Brazilian coffee from August through October, during which President Trump’s tariffs took effect, dropped by 52% from the same period last year to 983,970 bags.

Coffee prices also had support from Monday’s news from Somar Meteorologia that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 19.8 mm of rain during the week ended November 14, or 42% of the historical average.  

In a bearish factor, StoneX forecast last Wednesday that Brazil will produce 70.7 million bags of coffee in the new 2026/27 marketing year, including 47.2 million bags of arabica, a +29% y/y increase.

Increased Vietnamese coffee supplies are bearish for prices.  On November 6, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s Jan-Oct 2025 coffee exports rose +13.4% y/y to 1.31 MMT.  Also, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to 1.76 MMT, or 29.4 million bags, a 4-year high.  In addition, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said on October 24 that Vietnam’s coffee output in 2025/26 will be 10% higher than the previous crop year if weather conditions remain favorable.   Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.

Signs of tighter global coffee supplies are supportive of prices, as the International Coffee Organization (ICO) on November 7 reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct-Sep) fell 0.3% y/y to 138.658 million bags.

Coffee prices found support after Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, cut its Brazil 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate on September 4 by -4.9% to 35.2 million bags from a May forecast of 37.0 million bags.  Conab also reduced its total Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags, from a May estimate of 55.7 million bags.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected on June 25 that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags.  FAS forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags.  FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25. 

On the date of publication,

Rich Asplund

did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.

For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy

here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

(Platts)–09Dec2025/102 pm EST/1802 GMT **Q1 gas marketed production raised to 119.6 Bcf/d **Lowers Q1 gas demand forecast to 105.6 Bcf/d The US Energy Information Administration Dec. 9 raised by 700 MMcf/d to 120.6 Bcf/d its natural gas marketed production estimate for the US in the fourth quarter. The EIA, in its December Short-Term Energy Outlook, also raised its Q1 2025 production forecast by 1.1 Bcf/d to 119.6 Bcf/d. The agency raised its natural gas consumption estimates by 500 MMcf/d to 94.3 Bcf/d for Q4, but lowered the estimate by 700 MMcf/d to 105.6 Bcf/d for Q1. The EIA raised its forecast for Q4 Henry Hub natural gas spot prices by 36 cents to $3.87/MMBtu. The Q1 forecast also rose 37 cents from the previous month’s estimates to $4.35 /MMBtu. “In its December STEO, EIA forecasts the cold snap hitting the United States this month will drive the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average almost $4.30/MMBtu this winter, which is more than 40 cents/MMBtu higher than its November forecast,” the agency said in a statement. “The price increase is driven by increased natural gas consumption for space heating.” The EIA forecast Henry Hub natural gas prices would average $3.56/MMBtu for full-year 2025 and $4.01/MMBtu in 2026, compared with the previous month’s estimates of $3.47/MMBtu in 2025 and $4.02 /MMBtu in 2026. — Maya Weber, maya.weber@spglobal.com– Edited by Richard Rubin, newsdesk@spglobal.com–Platts Electricity Alert–

The EURNZD continued forming clear negative movement, affected by the continuation of forming strong barrier at 2.0335 level, suffering some losses by its stability near 2.0120, noting that the continuation of stochastic stability within the oversold level will increase the negative pressure on the current trading, to pave the way for reaching the initial target at 2.0060. Breaking this barrier might extend the losses towards 1.9955 directly, to face the moving average of 55.

While the stability above 2.0060 level will force it to form mixed trading, and there is a chance for recovering some losses by its rally towards 2.0210 before any attempt to reach the previously suggested negative target.

The expected trading range for today is between 2.0060 and 2.0175

Trend forecast: Bearish