2026.03.06 2026.03.06 WTI Crude Oil: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 06.03.26–13.03.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 63.60 with a target of 87.00–95.50. A buy signal: the price holds above 63.60. Stop Loss: below 63.60, Take Profit: 87.00–95.50.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 63.60 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 55.00–50.50. A sell signal: the 63.60 level is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 63.60, Take Profit: 55.00–50.50.
Main Scenario
Consider long positions from corrections above 63.60 with a target of 87.00–95.50.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation below the 63.60 level will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 55.00–50.50.
Analysis
A descending correction appears to have formed as the second wave of larger degree (2) on the weekly chart, with wave C of (2) completed as its part. On the daily time frame, the ascending third wave (3) has started unfolding, with the first wave of smaller degree 1 of (3) developing as its part. Supposedly, wave iii of 1 is developing on the H4 time frame. If this assumption is correct, WTI will continue to rise to 87.00–95.50. The level of 63.60 is critical in this scenario as the breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 55.00–50.50.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode
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Copper price formed some bearish waves, achieving $2.7000 level, which forced it to provide mixed trading due to the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, to rebound towards $5.7850.
In general, we will keep our bearish scenario, depending on the stability of the barrier at $5.9700, confirming the importance of gathering extra negative momentum currently to ease the mission of resuming the negative attack by reaching $5.6200 initially, then press on the next support at $5.5100.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.5100 and $5.8500
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Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower on Thursday, falling toward $82.20 at the time of writing, down 1.18% on the day. The precious metal is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds following the release of stronger-than-expected US economic data.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is moving higher and approaches the 99.30 area, up 0.45% on Thursday. A stronger US Dollar tends to weigh on Silver, as the metal becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies.
Several recent economic releases highlight the resilience of the US economy. The ADP Employment Change report showed that the private sector added 63K jobs in February, beating market expectations of 50K and sharply improving from the previous revised reading of 11K. At the same time, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 56.1 in February from 53.8 in the previous month, while economists had expected a slowdown to 53.5.
Additional labor market signals also point to underlying strength. Initial Jobless Claims in the US came in at 213K for the week ending February 28, slightly below expectations of 215K. Meanwhile, the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report showed a sharp decline in announced layoffs in February, although hiring plans remain cautious as companies remain wary about expanding their workforce.
Against this backdrop, expectations for an early monetary easing cycle from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have been scaled back. According to estimates based on the CME FedWatch tool, markets increasingly expect the first rate cut to arrive in September, while the chance of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at the July meeting now stands above 50%, compared to 33.4% a week earlier. Higher interest rates generally reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Geopolitical developments are nevertheless providing some support to the precious metal. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, are maintaining a degree of safe-haven demand. Hopes of a potential diplomatic opening briefly emerged following reports suggesting indirect contact between Tehran and Washington, but Iranian authorities later denied the claims, leaving the outlook for the conflict uncertain.
Investors are now focusing on upcoming key US data releases, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and Retail Sales figures on Friday. These indicators could offer further clues about the strength of the US labor market and the likely path of monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Platinum price ended its last corrective attempts by reaching $2220.00 level, to rebound quickly towards $2180.00, keeping its negative stability below $2245.00 level besides forming %61.8 Fibonacci correction level at $2200.00 level as appears in the above image.
The stability of moving average 55 above the current trading will increase the negative pressure, to reinforce the chances of resuming the negative attack, to expect targeting $2130.00 level reaching $2080.00 level.
The expected trading range for today is between $2080.00 and $2200.00
The GBPJPY pair activated with the negativity of the main indicators yesterday, to achieve the suggested negative targets in the previous report by reaching 209.40, which forces it to provide mixed trading to gather the required extra negative momentum to confirm the continuation of the negativity in the upcoming trading.
Note that forming an extra barrier at 210.65 level, and the stability of the trading below the moving average 55, these factors makes us keep the negative scenario to expect breaking the extra support at 209.10, to target new bearish stations that might begin at 208.30 reaching 206.90.
The expected trading range for today is between 208.30 and 210.40
Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a positive bias for the second straight day on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through buying and remains confined in the previous day’s broader range. The white metal holds above the $84.00 mark during the Asian session, up over 1% for the day.
The near-term bias is mildly bearish as the XAG/USD retreats from last week’s $86 area while holding below the rising 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 1-hour chart. The said SMA is pegged near $88 and should now act as overarching dynamic resistance.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator edges back toward the zero line after a prior positive phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just below 50, reinforcing a consolidative-to-soft downside tone rather than an impulsive selloff.
Initial resistance emerges at the recent intraday highs around $85.00, followed by a stronger cap near $86.20, where prior peaks align with fading upside momentum. A break above the latter would open the way toward the $88.00 region, where the 100-hour SMA is clustered and would be expected to attract renewed selling interest.
On the downside, immediate support sits at $83.50, with a deeper floor at $82.00, close to the latest reaction low and trend-line proximity. A clear drop through $82.00 would expose the $80.95 trend-line break area as the next bearish target, signalling a more decisive shift away from the prevailing medium-term uptrend.
Meanwhile, the upward support trend line from around $64 remains intact, yet the recent pullback toward the low-$80s shows buyers losing immediate control.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
XAG/USD 1-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
