Silver price (XAG/USD) claws back its early losses and turns slightly positive to near $50.30 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal attracts bids as investors turn cautious ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September, which will be releasing on Thursday.

Investors await the US NFP data to get fresh cues on the current status of the labor market. Financial market participants lack information regarding the job market status as major economic releases were halted in last almost seven weeks due to federal shutdown.

Meanwhile, the market sentiment remains risk-averse amid receding speculation favoring further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. At the press time, S&P 500 futures trade 0.25% lower, exhibiting a risk-off mood.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December meeting has diminished to 43% from 62.4% seen a week ago.

Technically, the scenario of easing Fed dovish bets is unfavourable for the Silver price, given that a pause in the Fed’s monetary easing campaign bodes poorly for non-yielding assets.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price finds cushion after correcting to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $49.70.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among investors about the near-term outlook.

Looking down, the September 23 high of $44.47 would remain a key support. On the upside, the all-time high of $54.50 might act as key barrier.

Silver daily chart

XAU/USD Current price: $4,067.89

• United States data was tepid, but enough to keep the US Dollar afloat.
• Investors await earnings reports, with the focus on the tech giant NVIDIA.
• XAU/USD losing upward momentum, but with limited bearish scope.

Spot Gold hovers around $4,060 in the American session on Tuesday, easing from an intraday peak of $4,082. The XAU/USD pair is little changed for a second consecutive day, reflecting investors’ wait-and-see stance ahead of United States (US) data releases scheduled for later this week.

Following the US federal shutdown, the government was finally able to pass a funding bill last week, which means governmental offices resumed activity and hence, data collection.

Market participants are cautious ahead of the announcement, but also wary about earnings reports. Among other companies, Home Depot reported weakening sales growth and cut its outlook for the financial year, blaming the downturn in its performance on a sluggish housing market and weaker consumer sentiment.NVIDIA is also scheduled to report this week, and the results could disrupt financial markets, especially tech-related reports.

Other than that, the US published August Factory Orders, which were up 1.4% on a monthly basis, improving from the -1.3% posted in July. The data is old, but it helped maintain the US Dollar (USD) afloat ahead of more relevant macroeconomic figures.

Additionally, ADP released the four-week average on Employment Change, which showed US private employers shed an average of 2,500 jobs a week in the four weeks ending November 1.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD trading at $4,067.90, up for the day. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has turned lower, providing dynamic resistance at around $4,090. At the same time, the 200-period SMA continues to rise modestly, now standing at $4,074.85, while holding above the 100-period at $4,041.52, the latter providing relevant dynamic support. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator remains below its midline but edges higher, indicating waning bearish pressure. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands neutral at 46.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD has posted a lower high and a lower low, hinting at increased selling interest without confirming an upcoming decline. The 20-day SMA has turned lower, while the 100- and 200-day SMAs continue to rise, keeping the broader trend supported. Price holds above all these averages, suggesting buyers retain the upper hand. Technical indicators hold within positive levels, with the Momentum rising above its midline, and the RSI holding neutral around 52 with scope to extend if bulls press the advantage. The pair needs to recover beyond the $4,100 level to become more attractive to bulls, an unlikely scenario at the time being.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

Gold has bounced up from $4,000 but remains capped below a previous support, at $4.050.

A steady US Dollar in cautious markets is acting as a headwind for Gold’s recovery.

US ADP employment and Factory Orders might set the US Dollar’s direction later today.

Gold (XAU/USD) reversal from highs near $4,250 reached last week extended to the $4,000 psychological level earlier on Tuesday. The pair has bounced up during the European trading session but remains below a previous support area in the $4,050 area so far.

The risk-off market mood is providing some support to the precious metal on Tuesday, although the US Dollar (USD) remains firm, underpinned by fading hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) easing in September, which is acting as a headwind for Gold.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD’s immediate trend remains bearish

The short-term technical picture remains bearish. The pair has depreciated about 3.7% in the previous three trading days and found support at $4,000, but the recovery attempt, so far, is frail.  The 4-Hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced up but keeps moving below the 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is printing red bars in the histogram.

The pair maintains its bearish trend intact while below an intraday support on the $4,050 area, which has turned resistance. This resistance leaves the $4,000 level exposed. Further down, the targets are the November 6 low at $3,965 and the November 4 low, in the area of $3,930.

A confirmation above $4.050, on the contrary, would ease bearish pressure and bring Monday’s highs, around  $4,100 to the focus, ahead of the November 11 high and November 13 low of $4,170.

Gold remains vulnerable early Tuesday, extending a four-day losing streak as US Dollar (USD) buyers hold the ground, eagerly awaiting the critical September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday.

Gold suffers from less dovish Fed expectations

Gold licks its wounds near five-day troughs of $4,006 reached on Monday, uninspired by broad risk aversion, amid a sustained US Dollar turnaround.

The Asian markets track Wall Street indices lower, as concerns over the US labor market and the AI overvaluations resurface ahead of the key quarterly earnings from chipmaker Nvidia on Wednesday.  

Risk-off flows keep the sentiment around the US Dollar underpinned, weighing down on the USD-denominated Gold.

The Greenback also draws support from the recent slew of hawkish talks by US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, which slashed the bets for another 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in December to 42%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson noted on Monday the US central bank needed to “proceed slowly” with further rate cuts, per Reuters.

The late pullback in the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields due to risk-aversion-led rally in US Treasuries, fuelled a modest rebound in Gold. The bright metal settled Monday at around $4,040, having tested the $4,000 threshold earlier in the day.

Looking ahead, Gold remains exposed to downside risks as the USD will likely hold the fort before the release of missed mid-tier US economic data. Speeches from Fed officials will also be closely scrutinized for fresh signals on the Fed’s policy path.

However, the main event risk for this week is the US September jobs report, albeit stale, is eagerly awaited for fresh hints on the state of the labor market, following the recent series of downbeat private sector employment data.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,022.86. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,048.65 has turned lower, with price holding beneath it and signaling waning near-term momentum. The 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs at $3,954.55, $3,669.05, and $3,421.00 continue to rise and sit below price, reinforcing the broader bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) eases to 49 (neutral), underscoring cooling upside pressure.

Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 38.2% retracement at $4,075.05 acts as near-term resistance, with the 50% retracement at $4,133.50 above. A daily close back above the 21-day SMA would open a push toward those barriers, while a rejection keeps pressure toward the 50-day SMA at $3,954.55 and maintains a consolidative tone within the broader uptrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

Silver (XAG/USD) is showing a mild recovery attempt on Monday. The pair bounced up from $50.00 lows on Friday but is struggling to find acceptance above the $51.00 level. which leaves price action hovering in no man’s land, after a sharp reversal from the $54.30 area last week.

Precious metals trimmed losses on Monday, with risk appetite subdued as Japan threatened China with military action if Taiwan were to be attacked. Investors, however, are on a wait-and-see stance, awaiting the release of a stream of delayed US macroeconomic releases later in the week, which is expected to shed some more light on the momentum of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.

Technical analysis: Silver has a significant resistance level above $54.00

The technical picture remains bearish, following a sharp reversal from the $54.30 area last week, which highlights a potential double top formation at the mid-range of the $54.00s. This is a common pattern of trend shifts that comes after a 70% rally in the last seven months.

Meanwhile, the lower high on Friday endorses the bearish view, and the weak oscillators, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) depressed below the 50 level, suggest that the current rebound is frail and that a deeper correction may be forthcoming.

Immediate support remains at Friday’s lows of $50.00, which, so far, is closing the path towards the October 23 and 31 highs, near $49.35, and the November 4 low, at $46.95. To the upside, a previous support at the 52.10 area (November 13 low) is likely to challenge bulls ahead of the November 14 high at $53.65 and the long-term highs between $54.60 and $54.80.