Why is the U.S. natural gas price rising today?

That was the question Rigzone asked Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group, in an exclusive interview on Friday.

In response, Flynn told Rigzone that Thursday’s natural gas injection “was right in line” and added that “now we are getting forecasts indicating colder conditions for late October and early November”, which he outlined “have led to increased purchasing activity in major U.S. regions, including the Midwest and Northeast”.   

“We saw initial weather models suggested a return of warmer temperatures, momentarily dampening the rally. Subsequent projections of below-normal temperatures have renewed bullish market sentiment,” Flynn added.

“This trend is consistent with global developments. Cold weather across Europe and Asia is reducing inventories, with European stocks declining by 11 percent since early October and supporting elevated benchmark prices such as Henry Hub,” he continued.

In its latest weekly natural gas storage report, which was released on Thursday and included data for the week ending October 24, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that working gas in storage was 3,882 billion cubic feet as of October 24, according to its estimates.

“This represents a net increase of 74 billion cubic feet from the previous week,” the EIA said in that report.

“Stocks were 29 billion cubic feet higher than last year at this time and 171 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3,711 billion cubic feet. At 3,882 billion cubic feet, total working gas is within the five-year historical range,” it added.

When he was asked why the U.S. natural gas price is rising today in a separate exclusive interview on Friday, Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth, pointed out that “U.S. natural gas futures successfully tested the important support level of $3.27 earlier this week and now has risen past $4.1 per MMBtu [million British thermal units], the highest in seven months”.  

“Expectations of colder weather in the U.S. ahead of the winter supported demand for gas-intensive heating. Meanwhile, the average flow of gas to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants were at 16.5 billion cubic feet per day in October, well above the 15.7 billion cubic feet per day from the previous month to set up a fresh record ahead of the turn of the month,” he added.

Hogan went on to state that “high LNG flows were aligned with added demand from Europe as the gradual shun of Russian gas coincided with lower stocks in gas trading hubs, while the U.S. Presidential administration pressed for pledges of U.S. energy imports for Asian countries negotiating trade deals”.

In an EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Friday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, said the December natural gas contract “is nearing technical resistance at the 100-day moving average of $4.13 per MMBtu for the first time since June, with the market transitioning away from storage oversupply fears toward a robust structural winter narrative”.

“Fundamentally, though, the near to medium term remains very well supplied,” Rubin said in that report.

Rubin highlighted in this report that “daily LNG is skyrocketing, with early-cycle nominations smashing record highs by 0.6 billion cubic feet per day”.

“Strong Gulf Coast demand drove Henry Hub spot prices to $3.45 per MMBtu – the highest level since mid-July,” he added.

In the report, Rubin went on to state that “December contract strength, despite this week’s 25 billion cubic foot bearish weather shift and storage on track to surpass 3,950 billion cubic feet, signals upside momentum – and risks that early-winter optimism may exceed fundamentals”.

“While higher supply and technical resistance may slow upside … momentum appears quite strong into November,” he said.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

Used primarily as a bargaining tool to encourage Putin to return to the negotiating table regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, markets are seriously questioning the effectiveness of recent sanctions.

While predictably, the Kremlin made comments shortly after the announcement to suggest that the domestic Russian oil industry would be unaffected by new American sanctions, markets are now taking these comments more seriously.

This goes double for Vladimir Putin, who went on record to say he would not be “cowed” by other nations into making concessions about Ukraine, while simultaneously boasting about the success of new nuclear technology.

While it is understandable that Trump wants to target Russian fossil fuels, with the three largest companies by market cap in Russia, Lukoil, Rosneft, and Gazprom, all being energy corporations, it will take more supply-side risk to secure higher pricing for WTI, which is on pace for its worst yearly performance since 2020.

As expected, the level of risk premium priced into WTI markets has reduced significantly this week, not only due to the above, but also because of the market’s inherent nature: sudden news events often cause the markets to overreact.

December arabica coffee (KCZ25) today is down -2.30 (-0.59%), and January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) is down -7 (-0.15%).

Coffee prices are under pressure today but remain above Tuesday’s 2-week lows.  Prices are sliding amid forecasts of rain this week in key coffee-growing areas of Brazil, which would partially alleviate the dry conditions from last week.  Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received only 0.3 mm of rain during the week ended October 24, or 1% of the historical average.

Arabica coffee prices are also being undercut by speculation that the US may soon lift its 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee.  On Monday, Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he had a “surprisingly good” meeting with President Trump and said there could be a “definitive solution” on US-Brazil trade within days.

Shrinking ICE coffee inventories are supportive for prices.  The 50% tariffs imposed on US imports from Brazil have led to a sharp drawdown in ICE coffee inventories.  ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.5-year low of 446,475 bags on Wednesday, and ICE robusta coffee inventories fell to a 3.25-month low of 6,111 lots.  American buyers are voiding new contracts for Brazilian coffee purchases due to the 50% tariffs on US imports from Brazil, thereby tightening US supplies, as about a third of America’s unroasted coffee comes from Brazil.

Last Thursday, arabica coffee rallied to an 8.5-month nearest-futures high due to concern that excessive dry conditions in Brazil during the critical flowering period for coffee trees will threaten the 2026/27 coffee crop.  According to the Bloomberg Brazil Weather Analysis, coffee-producing regions in Brazil have been experiencing an intense drought, with the state of Minas Gerais recording only about 70% of its average rainfall over the past month.

Coffee prices garnered support after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on September 16  increased the likelihood to 71% of a La Niña weather system in the southern hemisphere from October to December, which could bring excessive dry weather to Brazil and harm the 2026/27 coffee crop.  Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee.

Robusta coffee is under pressure from increased Vietnamese supplies.  The Vietnam National Statistics Office reported on October 13 that Vietnam’s Jan-Sep 2025 coffee exports rose +10.9% y/y to 1.230 MMT.  Also, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to 1.76 MMT, or 29.4 million bags, a 4-year high.  In addition, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said last Friday that Vietnam’s coffee output in 2025/26 will be 10% higher than the previous crop year if weather conditions remain favorable.   Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.  

Larger coffee exports are bearish for prices after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on October 6 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct-Aug) rose +0.2% y/y to 127.92 million bags, indicating adequate exports and supplies.

Coffee prices found support after Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, cut its Brazil 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate on September 4 by -4.9% to 35.2 million bags from a May forecast of 37.0 million bags.  Conab also reduced its total Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags, from a May estimate of 55.7 million bags.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected on June 25 that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags.  FAS forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags.  FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25.
 

On the date of publication,

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Binance Coin (BNBUSD) declined slightly in its latest intraday trading under continued negative pressure from trading below the 50-day SMA and within the dominance of a short-term corrective bearish trend, with trading along a descending line. Meanwhile, the relative strength indicators have reached extremely overbought levels compared to the price movement, accompanied by the early appearance of a bearish crossover, which further intensifies the negative pressure around the cryptocurrency.

Therefore, we expect the cryptocurrency to decline in its upcoming intraday trading as long as the resistance level of $1,181.90 holds, targeting the key support level of $1,020.50.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish.

The EURJPY pair formed strong bullish rally, taking advantage of the positive factors that are represented by its stability above the extra support at 177.05 besides the main indicators attempt to provide positive momentum, to notice recording the initial target by reaching 178.80.

No escape from renewing the bullish attempts, to attempt to breach 178.80 level and hold above to open the way for recording extra gains that might extend towards 179.35 reaching 180.00, forming temporary psychological barrier against the bullish trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 177.70 and 179.35

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price attempted to activate the bullish trend, to end it after reaching the barrier at$5.2000, which forces it to decline correctively to settle near$5.0400.

We expect providing mixed trading, but its main stability within the bullish channel’s levels by forming extra support at $4.7500 level will increase the chances of gathering positive momentum, to repeat the attempts to achieve extra gains that might extend to $5.3200 and $5.5000.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.9200 and $5.2200

Trend forecast fluctuated within the bullish track

Resistance Zone Defined

The $4,079 area gains strength as resistance from the nearby top rising channel line and falling 10-day average. The 10-day is converging with the 20-day after touching the channel line today. Once below the 20-day, it becomes key short-term resistance. Monday’s $4,109 high and last Friday’s $4,144 high cap the zone.

Breakdown Context

Gold fell below the 20-day average on Monday, closing under it for the first time since August 22’s reclaim. No swing back to test it as resistance has occurred yet. Yesterday’s attempt met quick pushback. A more substantial advance into the zone could precede further bearish pullback or consolidation.

Lower Support Targets

The next lower target is the 50% retracement at $3,846 and 50-day average at $3,808, rising. The 50% level is bolstered by a prior three-day sideways move that acted as resistance, now potential support. Convergence of the 50-day and 50% retracement may hint at timing — watch when they align.

Outlook

The close near $4,027 is key — above it targets $4,079, below risks $3,918. The 20-day and channel line cap rebounds, but a test there could set up deeper pullback to $3,846. Monitor 50-day convergence for support clues — today’s strength favors buyers short-term if resistance holds.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Resistance Zone Overcome

The advance decisively broke through a potential resistance zone from $3.92 to $3.93, consisting of a 127.2% rising ABCD pattern target and 88.6% Fibonacci retracement. This clearance removes a significant hurdle and puts natural gas in position to challenge prior resistance at the June swing high. Exceeding this level would trigger a bullish signal, breaking a swing high from the downtrend structure and confirming a shift in momentum.

Support Structure

Key near-term support is today’s $3.79 low. The $3.92-$3.93 range, now former resistance, can also be monitored for signs of flipping to support. Since there was minimal pushback at that zone, a confirmed bull breakout could solidify it as a new floor. Wednesday’s $3.75 low provides another short-term support level if tested, offering buyers a chance to defend.

Long-Term Bull Trend

Natural gas is showing clear signs of resuming the long-term bull trend that began from 2024’s low. The long-term uptrend line was recently recovered, along with a downtrend line. Prices now trade above the 200-day average after remaining below it since early August, reinforcing underlying demand and structural improvement.

Upside Targets

Clearing the 127.2% ABCD target opens the 161.8% extended Fibonacci target at $4.21 — the higher potential target for the current advance from August’s low. This would require surpassing the June swing high. A strong weekly close would further solidify the bullish posture, though a pullback remains possible before reaching $4.21.

Outlook

The $3.79 close is critical — above it targets the June high, below risks $3.75. The 200-day average marks maximum downside if support fails. Today’s strength favors continuation — watch the June high for reversal confirmation. Pullbacks may offer entry opportunities if trendlines and the 200-day hold firm.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.