Coffee price formed the inverted head and shoulders pattern in its last trading, and 424.20 level forms the main neckline as appears in the above image, noticing the attempt to surpass the neckline at 437.40 in yesterday trading, to bounce quickly towards 410.00.

 

The price needs new positive momentum that allows it to settle above extra support towards 393.25, then wait for breaching 424.20 level, to confirm activating the bullish pattern, to target 457.50 and 486.00 level.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 400.50 and 457.50

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

December arabica coffee (KCZ25) today is up +0.75 (+0.20%), and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX25) is down -134 (-3.18%).

Coffee prices are mixed today, with robusta sharply lower at a 6-week low.   Tight ICE coffee inventories are supporting coffee prices.  However, robusta retreated today as the remnants of Typhoon Ragasa are forecast to miss the coffee-growing regions of Vietnam, easing concerns that heavy wind and rain could damage the country’s coffee crops.

The 50% tariffs imposed on US imports from Brazil have led to a sharp drawdown in ICE coffee inventories, a bullish factor for coffee prices.  ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 17.5-month low of 601,717 bags on Wednesday.  ICE robusta coffee inventories fell to a 1.75-month low of 6,464 lots last Friday.  American buyers are voiding new contracts for purchases of Brazilian coffee beans due to the 50% tariffs imposed on US imports from Brazil, thereby tightening US supplies, as about a third of America’s unroasted coffee comes from Brazil.

On Tuesday, arabica coffee prices fell to a 1-month low as rain in Brazil eased dry conditions.  Brazil’s Somar Meteorologia stated that rainfall in Minas Gerais will persist for the remainder of the week.

A bumper robusta coffee crop in Vietnam is bearish for prices.  Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to climb +6% y/y to 1.76 MMT, or 29.4 million bags, a 4-year high.  Also, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported September 8 that Vietnam’s Jan-Aug 2025 coffee exports were up +7.8% y/y to 1.141 MMT.  Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.

Last Tuesday, Dec arabica coffee posted a contract high and nearest-futures (U25) arabica posted a 7-month high, while robusta climbed to a 3-week high.  Coffee prices rose due to a lack of rain in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions ahead of the critical flowering period for coffee trees.  Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 10.5 mm of rain during the week ended September 20, only 73% of the historical average.  The month of September is the critical flowering period for Brazil’s coffee trees.

Coffee prices also garnered support last Tuesday after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) increased the likelihood of a La Niña weather system in the southern hemisphere from October to December to 71%, which could bring excessive dry weather to Brazil and harm the 2026/27 coffee crop.  Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee.

Coffee prices found support after Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, cut its Brazil 2025 arabica coffee crop estimate on September 4 by -4.9% to 35.2 million bags from a May forecast of 37.0 million bags.  Conab also reduced its total Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags, from a May estimate of 55.7 million bags.

In a bullish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on September 3 that global July coffee exports declined -1.6% year-over-year (y/y) to 11.6 million bags, and cumulative October-July coffee exports declined -0.3% y/y to 115.615 million bags.

Reduced exports from Brazil are supporting prices.  On August 6, Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that Brazil’s July unroasted coffee exports fell -20.4% y/y to 161,000 MT.  In related bullish news, exporter group Cecafe reported that Brazil’s green coffee exports in July fell -28% y/y to 2.4 million bags.  Cecafe reported that July arabica exports fell -21% y/y, while robusta exports plunged -49% y/y.  Cecafe said Brazil’s July coffee exports fell -28% to 2.7 million bags, and that coffee shipments during Jan-July fell -21% to 22.2 million bags.

Harvest pressures in Brazil are bearish for coffee prices after Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op announced Wednesday that the harvest among its members was 98.9% complete as of September 12.  Cooxupe is Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and Brazil’s largest exporter group.  

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected on June 25 that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags.  FAS forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags.  FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25.  However, Volcafe is projecting a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.
 

On the date of publication,

Rich Asplund

did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.

For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy

here.

Support Levels

The 20-day average emerged as key support after Tuesday’s sharp drop breached the 10-day line. Since late August, gold has leaned on the 10-day average for dynamic support, but the top rising channel line, tested at $4,066 today, now joins the 20-day as a critical floor. Holding here keeps the bullish structure intact.

Trade Setup

The pullback remains mild, and Wednesday’s hammer at the 20-day line hints at a potential reversal. A breakout above $4,161—Wednesday’s high—would trigger the hammer, likely reclaim the 10-day average and target Tuesday’s wide $4,080-$4,375 range. Such a move signals shifting momentum, with recent highs back in play.

Weekly Context

With one session left, the weekly chart shows limited damage—a higher weekly low and slightly higher high suggest resilience. Tuesday’s aggressive selloff, however, implies consolidation within its $4,080-$4,375 range may precede a clear advance. The 20-day support test flags a possible bottom, but time may be needed to solidify gains.

Outlook

Gold’s pause at $4,039 support sets up either sideways consolidation or a bounce-and-reverse. A close above $4,161 fuels bullish hopes toward $4,375, while sub-$4,039 risks deeper tests. The weekly pattern leans slightly bullish if $4,066 holds. Watch today’s close—breakout signals strength, but Tuesday’s range could cap near-term moves.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Resistance Zone

A $3.55-$3.59 resistance range, defined by weekly highs in three of the past four weeks, includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.55 and the nearby 200-day moving average at $3.46. While no breakout above $3.59 has occurred, recent strength suggests improving demand, hinting at a potential push through if momentum rebuilds after this pullback.

Trade Setup

Despite resistance, the rising near-term uptrend shows promise for a $3.59 breakout, establishing a higher swing high and confirming continuation. An initial target at $3.71 aligns with a rising ABCD pattern, matching prior upswing magnitude, and may test the 25% extended top rising channel line. The rally from August’s $2.89 low mirrors earlier sharp advances. Strength was shown by a reclaim of the channel centerline, 20-day average, long-term uptrend line, and downtrend line, with three days partially above the 200-day average signaling vigor, though unsustainable so far.

Support Levels

A break below today’s $3.31 low would breach the downtrend line, a minor bearish signal targeting the 20-day average at $3.27, currently rising. This level becomes critical to gauge if buyers can defend the uptrend’s structure or if deeper weakness emerges.

Outlook

The $3.39 close decides the day—below it confirms pullback momentum toward $3.27, above it keeps breakout hopes alive. The $3.55-$3.59 zone remains the hurdle for bulls aiming at $3.71. Watch today’s action: strength preserves the uptrend, but a downtrend line break signals caution until support firms up.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Platinum price ended the bearish corrective attack by targeting $1490.00 level, to form strong bullish rebound by its rally towards $1633.00, attempting to reduce the effect of the intraday bearish pressure on the current period.

 

We couldn’t confirm activating the positive track until providing new positive close above$1605.00 to ease the mission of targeting some positive stations that are located near $1665.00 and $1695.00, while the decline below $1605.00 will force the price to form new bearish waves, attempting to reach $1525.00.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $1570.00 and $1665.00

 

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track.

 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) prices settled with cautious gains during their last intraday trading, after the stability of the key support of $107,400, gaining bullish momentum that helped it to achieve these gains and surpass the resistance of its EMA50, however the main bearish trend remains the dominant on the trading, especially with its trading alongside supportive trendline, besides the relative strength indicators reaching sever overbought levels compared to the price move, indicating the beginning of forming negative divergence, which intensified the negative pressure on the price.

 

 

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Gold price forecast for October 2025 highlights a period of market consolidation as XAU/USD stabilizes after a sharp correction from record highs. Traders are closely watching key support and resistance levels around $4000 and $4192.86 to determine whether the current rebound signals renewed bullish momentum or a potential pullback into the value zone. The gold price forecast also reflects broader global influences, including geopolitical tensions, U.S. inflation data, and upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions. These factors, combined with central bank demand and investor sentiment, continue to guide the gold price outlook and short-term trading strategies in the XAU/USD market.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds Key Support Levels

Gold price forecast indicates that XAU/USD is trading near $4107.86, slightly up after a sharp correction from Monday’s high of $4381.44 to a low of $4004.28. The yellow metal is consolidating between key pivots at $4100.43 and $4162.93. Traders are focusing on the $4192.86 level, which could signal renewed bullish momentum if broken.

At 10:30 GMT, XAU/USD traded $8.46 higher, or 0.21%. The $4000 level remains an important support area. Market participants are deciding whether this represents a buying opportunity or a short-term bounce before another decline.

If bulls fail to maintain momentum, targets below include $3846.50 and the 50-day moving average at $3741.61. This area now defines the near-term value zone, and a break below it could restore bearish sentiment.

Gold Price Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions Maintain Safe-Haven Demand

Geopolitical events continue to influence the gold price forecast. The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Russian oil firms Lukoil and Rosneft. At the same time, trade tensions with China have resurfaced due to Washington’s plan to restrict software-related exports.

These developments are keeping gold’s safe-haven demand steady. According to market analysts, ongoing geopolitical risks may maintain long-term interest in gold, even if short-term reactions remain subdued.

Gold Price Forecast: Fed Rate Cuts and Inflation Data Drive Market Expectations

Gold price forecast also depends on upcoming macroeconomic data. Traders await the delayed U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could guide the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. Markets currently expect a 25-basis-point rate cut. Falling real yields and continued central bank gold buying support a longer-term positive outlook. These factors keep the precious metal attractive despite short-term volatility.

Gold Price Forecast Technical Outlook: Buy Strength or Wait for Value Zone?

Gold price forecast shows XAU/USD at a technical decision point. Holding above $4004.28 keeps the short-term bullish setup intact. A breakout through $4192.86 could push prices toward the record high of $4381.44.

Failure to hold above $4004.28, however, could send the price into the $3846.50–$3741.61 value zone. Traders waiting for this pullback might find a stronger base, though it risks missing a move if buyers defend the current range.

Currently, gold is trading at $4126.53, with prices expected to stabilize within the $4059.90–$4114.01 range before testing higher resistance levels.

Gold (XAU/USD) Expert Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, several indicators shape the gold price forecast:

• A bullish hammer and a morning star pattern at $4005.79 signal potential reversal.
• MACD shows reduced bearish momentum as it nears the signal line.
• RSI remains neutral around 41, while MFI indicates rising liquidity.
• VWAP and SMA20 remain above the market, implying short-term pressure.

Trading Plan:

• Buy Scenario: Long positions above $4114.01, targeting $4202.40–$4441.34. Stop loss at $4086.58.
• Sell Scenario: Short positions below $4059.90, targeting $4005.79–$3729.82. Stop loss at $4086.58.

Gold Price Forecast: Short-Term and Monthly

Tomorrow (October 24, 2025):
Gold is expected to trade between $4005.79 and $4202.40, averaging near $4104.09.

Next Week (October 20–26, 2025):
Volatility remains high, with expected lows near $3951.68 and highs around $4441.34.

Next 30 Days (October 2025):
Prices may fluctuate between $3951.68 and $4645.91, averaging $4298.79. Inflation reports and the Fed’s rate decision on October 29 will play a key role.

Gold Price Forecast: Factors Affecting Prices This Month

1. New U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods effective November 2025.
2. Release of U.S. CPI and PMI data on October 24.
3. The Federal Reserve’s rate announcement on October 29.
4. Increased gold reserves by India, China, and Germany.
5. Ongoing U.S. government shutdown risk driving safe-haven buying.

Gold Price Forecast Methodology

This gold price forecast is based on:

• Analysis of key economic and political developments.
• Technical chart studies across multiple time frames.
• Market sentiment from social media discussions and trader data.

FAQs

Will the gold price increase tomorrow?
Gold price movement depends on U.S. data and geopolitical events. Key levels are $4005.79 support and $4202.40 resistance, with potential consolidation and limited upside momentum.

What could cause gold prices to decline next week?
Stronger economic data, easing geopolitical tensions, or a stronger U.S. dollar could lead to short-term declines in gold prices below $3951.68.

The GBPCAD reached the extra support level near 1.0605 in its last negative attack, forming strong barrier against the negative attack, which forces it to form mixed trading by its fluctuation near 1.0635.

 

Note that the main stability within the bearish channel’s levels and by the stability of the main resistance at 1.0675 makes us wait to gather extra negative momentum, which allows it to break the current support and begin targeting extra bearish stations by reaching 1.0570 followed by the support of the bearish channel’s support at 1.0530.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0650 and 1.0570

 

Trend forecast: Bearish