Created on October 07, 2025

• The US dollar has gapped higher against the Japanese yen to kick off the trading session here on Monday after the surprise results of the Japanese national election. That being said, I don’t put a lot of faith into these types of moves. Historically speaking, at least I should say that I don’t chase them.
• I think at this point in time, it’s very likely that the gap will probably at least be attempted to be filled. Whether or not that happens, we’ll have to wait and see. It does make a certain amount of sense in that the 149 yen level offers a little bit of support here as it was previously resistance. But breaking down below there, we then have the 200-day EMA at the bottom of the gap as well as the 50-day EMA offering support.

Pullbacks Offer Opportunities

I think any pullback at this juncture probably has people looking to buy value. And quite frankly, that is basically how I believe this pair has been leaning for a while. I say leaning because it seems like every time we drop toward the 146 yen level, there are plenty of buyers. Remember, this is a positive swap pair if you are long, and you do get paid to hang on to it. And I think that’s part of what’s been going on here. I know certainly I’ve padded my account fairly well just doing that. As I found myself in a long position this morning, I actually closed it out, and I’m waiting at this point for a little bit of a pullback, maybe over the next couple of days to take advantage of. On the other hand, if we do just simply take off to the upside, which can happen. Once we’re above the 151 yen level at that point, I think we are likely to go much higher, so I might be forced to chase the pair up there.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.