XRP is grappling with fresh headwinds as smart money investors cut their holdings sharply, signaling fading confidence in the token’s short-term outlook. Over the past month, XRP has lost nearly 17% of its value, slipping to $2.93 while institutional wallets trimmed positions by almost 80%.

This pullback has been compounded by weakening network activity, with daily transactions and active addresses both in decline.

For traders, the data suggests momentum is slipping fast, leaving XRP vulnerable to further corrections unless market sentiment improves. The spotlight now turns to whether the token can defend the $2.70 support zone.

XRP price slides 16.8% in 30 days

XRP is struggling to hold ground after a sharp reversal from its yearly peak, with the token down 16.8% over the past 30 days and currently trading at $2.93.

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The decline comes despite earlier gains of 63% from its year-to-date low, leaving the third-largest cryptocurrency with a market capitalization of $173.8 billion and daily trading volume of $6.4 billion. While XRP remains 19% higher over the past three months, the latest data suggests that bearish momentum is gaining strength, potentially paving the way for deeper corrections.

Smart money dumps 80% of XRP holdings

Institutional investors—often seen as “smart money”—have sharply reduced exposure to XRP. Nansen data shows holdings dropped by nearly 80% in the past 30 days, a move that often signals broader weakness ahead. Retail traders typically follow institutional flows, amplifying selling pressure in subsequent weeks. The futures market reflects this shift in sentiment. Open interest in XRP contracts slid from $10.94 billion in July to $7.56 billion at press time. Meanwhile, the long/short ratio dipped below 1, indicating a growing majority of traders are positioning for additional downside.

Short-term XRP outlook

• Price down 16.8% in the last 30 days, now trading at $2.93.
• Smart money investors cut holdings by ~80% over the past month.
• Open interest dropped from $10.9B to $7.5B, showing bearish trader sentiment.
• Long/short ratio below 1, with more traders betting against XRP.
• Broke below 20-day and 50-day moving averages, confirming bearish trend.
• Descending triangle pattern signals possible target near $2.40.
• Key support sits around $2.70; break could send price toward $2.30.
• Network activity weakening: active addresses, transactions, and user engagement all declining.
• Bearish indicators: RSI divergence, Aroon Down at 92.8%, Aroon Up at 7.1%.

Long-term XRP outlook

• Still the third-largest crypto by market cap ($173.8B), showing strong market presence.
• XRP remains 19% higher over the past 3 months, despite the current correction.
• 63% rebound from year-to-date lows shows resilience during rallies.
• 91% of XRP supply still in profit, leaving room for strategic long-term gains.
• Expected regulatory clarity by 2026 could remove legal uncertainty and unlock institutional adoption.
• Increasing focus on XRP Ledger for payments, remittances, and tokenization use cases may drive demand.
• Long-term projections suggest potential for renewed growth once the market stabilizes.
• Macro crypto trends (Bitcoin cycles, ETF inflows, broader adoption) could act as tailwinds.

Technical analysis confirms bearish setup

Charts show XRP breaking decisively below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, confirming weakening momentum. The token has also formed a descending triangle pattern with a projected target around $2.40—roughly 18% lower than current levels.

Other indicators reinforce the bearish case:

• RSI divergence points to fading strength in the uptrend.
• Aroon Down at 92.86% vs. Aroon Up at 7.14% shows bears firmly in control.
• The XRP/BTC pair is flashing warning signs, with RSI cooling from 75 to 43 since mid-July despite price attempting higher lows.

XRP network activity weakens further

Beyond the charts, on-chain metrics are painting a worrying picture. The XRP Ledger has seen a steep decline in user activity compared to earlier this year:

• Daily active addresses collapsed from 608,000 in March to just 33,000 today.
• Weekly transactions dropped 14.8% to 12.4 million.
• Transaction counts halved, sliding from 2.5 million in June to about 1.25 million.
• Weekly active addresses fell 2.1% to 107,340.

This slowdown typically reduces liquidity and demand, reinforcing downward pressure on the token. Meanwhile, sell-side activity is rising: spot taker cumulative volume delta has remained negative since July 28, reflecting profit-taking among traders.

Key support levels to watch

At current levels, XRP still leaves 91% of supply in profit, giving investors further incentive to lock in gains. Analysts are watching $2.70 as critical near-term support. A decisive break below this zone could accelerate losses toward $2.30, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

Despite the bearish near-term outlook, long-term bulls argue that regulatory clarity in 2026 and broader adoption of XRP Ledger-based solutions could reignite momentum. For now, however, the data points to continued headwinds in the weeks ahead.

FAQs:

Q1. What is the short-term XRP price prediction?
XRP price may slide toward $2.70 or $2.30 if bearish momentum continues.

Q2. What is the long-term XRP price prediction for 2026?
XRP could regain strength with regulatory clarity and broader adoption of the XRP Ledger.