Category: Forex News, News

USD/JPY Forecast: Yen Weakness, Intervention Risks, and Fed Speakers

With the USD/JPY currently at 154.784, intervention risks are resurfacing. On Tuesday, Masato Kanda issued a warning, saying that the government would intervene in case of any speculative or disorderly moves in the foreign exchange markets. After the sharp pullback from 160, warnings could intensify far sooner.

On Wednesday, foreign investments into bonds and stocks will draw investor interest. However, the numbers will unlikely influence the Bank of Japan rate path. Wage growth numbers and the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions will impact the Yen more on Thursday (May 9).

The Bank of Japan hopes wage growth and services inflation will fuel demand-driven inflation.

While services sector activity picked up in April, forecasts for wage growth are less convincing. Economists expect average cash earnings to increase 1.5% year-on-year in March after rising 1.8% in February. Weaker-than-expected wage growth figures could impact consumer price trends and hopes of a BoJ rate hike.

US Economic Calendar: FOMC Member Speeches in Focus

Later in the Wednesday session, the Fed will be in the spotlight. FOMC members Susan Collins, Lisa Cook, and Philip Jefferson are on the calendar to speak.

Investors should consider views on inflation, the labor market, and the Fed rate path. Recent Fed speeches have fueled uncertainty about a September Fed rate cut. While wage growth slowed in April, inflation remains sticky, forcing members to reconsider their projections.

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