NEW YORK, May 9, 2026, 05:42 EDT

Natural gas futures in the U.S. wrapped up the week just under $2.80 per million British thermal units. Prices held their ground on a lighter storage build, though a decisive move higher remained elusive with spring demand lagging. As of May 8, Trading Economics showed natural gas at $2.80, marking a monthly gain of roughly 5%, but the contract is still off more than 26% compared to the same period last year.

The timing lands in the shoulder season—the lull between heavy winter heating and the onset of summer air-conditioning demand. During this stretch, traders pay close attention to storage levels, export activity, and weather forecasts, since day-to-day demand can shift abruptly.

Underground gas storage in the U.S. reached 2,205 bcf for the week ending May 1, according to the Energy Information Administration. That’s a 63 bcf build from the previous week. Inventories now stand 75 bcf higher than this time last year and 139 bcf above the five-year average. While supplies remain comfortable, traders had been looking for a touch more slack.

The reported 63 bcf injection missed forecasts for a 74 bcf build and trailed the five-year average gain of 77 bcf, StoneX noted after the data hit. While a smaller build isn’t a sign of scarcity, it does chip away at just how persistent the surplus appears.

Gelber & Associates pointed to “a rapidly fading heating season” bumping up against the first notable summer cooling demand, with pipeline exports to Mexico approaching 7.5 bcf/d lending a floor. NatGasWeather.com noted that extended forecasts now tilt hotter-than-normal for much of the interior U.S. heading into late May and early June. The Wall Street Journal

Supply remains steady. U.S. drillers bumped up oil and gas rigs for the third week running, bringing the count to 548, according to Baker Hughes. Gas rigs ticked down by one to 129. The EIA projects U.S. gas production will edge up to 109.6 bcf/d in 2026, compared with a record 107.7 bcf/d seen in 2025, Reuters said.

For now, the EIA’s outlook is muted, not wild. The agency projects Henry Hub—the main U.S. benchmark out of Louisiana—hovering near $3.10 per MMBtu for both Q2 and Q3. By 2026, it expects a yearly average of $3.67. On the export front, U.S. liquefied natural gas shipments are set to reach 17.0 bcf/d in 2026, topping the prior year’s record 15.1 bcf/d.

U.S. gas finds an extra lift from global markets. Asia’s spot LNG prices slipped to $16.90 per MMBtu for June, down from $17.80, according to Reuters, but that’s still a hefty premium over Henry Hub. ICIS analyst Evan Tan pointed to “current spot prices have started to ease off” as traders watch for a potential U.S.-Iran agreement and sluggish buying in North Asia. Yet Hans Van Cleef at EqoLibrium said the firmer Asian market means “all uncontracted cargoes are heading to Asia.” Reuters

Bulls could see their case unravel in a hurry. A cool-down after late May, ongoing LNG maintenance that’s still limiting export demand, or bigger builds in the upcoming storage reports—any of these could send the market slipping into that softer spring mood again. With inventories running above average, sellers aren’t shy about hitting into any rally.

Looking ahead, range-bound action seems most likely, though there’s a slight tilt higher if weekend weather models keep the heat. Edging up to $3? That’ll require a clear boost in power burn or LNG feedgas running hotter. Otherwise, Thursday’s storage surprise offers a floor, not fresh direction.