Buat pecinta matcha, we have a bad news pic.twitter.com/jzXBXJDqwK

— Txt dari Kuliner (@txtdrkuliner) July 30, 2025

The increase in demand also reflects a cultural phenomenon, with social media amplifying matcha’s visual appeal and its supposed health benefits, such as antioxidants and calming effects. Meanwhile, the reduction in the number of farmers and the lack of successors in the field limit production expansion, creating a crisis scenario for the sector.

• Main crisis factors: decline in cultivated area, extreme heat, and lack of workers.
• Global impact: suppliers report limited stocks and order delays.
• Alternatives: imports from other countries, but with inferior quality.

Matcha cultivation faces natural and human barriers

Matcha production is a meticulous process that begins with cultivating Camellia sinensis under specific conditions. The leaves are partially grown in shade, which increases chlorophyll and gives matcha its vibrant green color. After harvesting, the leaves, known as tencha, are steamed, dried, and ground in specialized mills, a process that can take hours to produce just 40 grams of powder.

Between 2008 and 2023, the tea cultivation area in Japan fell from 48,000 to 36,000 hectares, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF). The number of farming families also plummeted, from 46,000 to 20,000, due to the lack of successors and low domestic demand for green tea. Many farmers diversified their crops, reducing focus on matcha.

Extreme heat, with the summer of 2024 being the hottest ever recorded, damaged tencha harvests, reducing supply. Climate changes also affect leaf quality, which requires specific temperature and humidity conditions.

• 25% decline in cultivated area over 15 years.
• Scorching summers destroyed part of the 2024 harvest.
• Labor shortage during peak periods.
• Plants take up to five years to mature.

Global demand drives prices and pressures stocks

The global matcha market is expected to reach US$ 5 billion by 2028, according to sector estimates. The popularity of powdered green tea has grown in countries like the United States, Australia, and Europe, where it is consumed in beverages, sweets, and even savory dishes. Between 2010 and 2023, matcha production in Japan tripled, but about 50% is exported, pressuring domestic stocks.

Major brands, such as Ippodo and Marukyu Koyamaen, have limited varieties and quantities to serve more customers. In July 2025, Ippodo announced temporary restrictions due to high demand, while Marukyu Koyamaen highlighted delays in international orders. Matcha prices have risen, with a 55% increase in export value between 2020 and 2024, from 16.2 billion yen (US$ 109 million) to 36.4 billion yen (US$ 245 million).

Matcha’s popularity is also fueled by its presence on social media, where influencers highlight its aesthetic appeal and health benefits, such as high antioxidant content and energizing properties. However, the earthy flavor, often described as “grassy,” divides opinions, which does not hinder market growth.

• Japanese green tea exports grew 40% in volume from 2020 to 2024.
• Half of matcha production is destined for export.
• 55% increase in export value over four years.

Impact of climate changes on production

Record heat waves in Japan have wreaked havoc on tea plantations. The summer of 2024, the hottest in history, reduced tencha harvest yields between April and May, crucial periods for production. Extreme temperatures affect leaf growth, compromising both the quantity and quality of matcha.

Furthermore, climate changes make cultivation more unpredictable, with irregular rains and drought periods affecting soil moisture, essential for Camellia sinensis. Producers report difficulties in maintaining the quality standard required for high-level matcha, used in traditional ceremonies and premium products.

The situation is aggravated by dependence on traditional methods. Manual harvesting, for example, is indispensable to ensure quality, but the lack of workers during seasonal peaks hinders the process. Modern machines help with grinding, but do not replace labor in harvesting.

• Summer of 2024 was the hottest recorded in Japan.
• Tencha harvest period was severely affected.
• Premium matcha quality is at risk.
• Lack of seasonal workers limits production.

Japanese government response to the crisis

The Japanese government is acting to contain the crisis in matcha production. The MAFF announced measures to support farmers, including incentives for new producers to enter the tea sector. Agricultural machinery leasing programs were introduced to reduce costs and dependence on manual labor, which is scarce.

Another initiative is to stimulate the reconversion of agricultural lands to tea cultivation, reversing the trend of diversification to other crops. However, the impact of these measures will be gradual, as tea plants take years to reach maturity. The government is also promoting partnerships with universities to develop climate-resistant cultivation techniques.

Despite the efforts, dependence on traditional methods and the slow recovery of the agricultural sector limit short-term results. The crisis exposes Japan’s vulnerability to factors such as rural population aging and climate changes.

• Incentives for new tea farmers.
• Machinery leasing to reduce costs.
• Partnerships with universities for cultivation techniques.
• Reconversion of agricultural lands to tea.

International alternatives and quality challenges

With the shortage in Japan, global suppliers are seeking matcha in countries like China and South Korea, which also cultivate Camellia sinensis. However, these countries face difficulties in meeting Japanese quality standards, which involve specific shading and grinding techniques. Chinese matcha, for example, is often considered less vibrant and with a less refined flavor.

Importing matcha from other countries may alleviate immediate pressure, but it compromises the product’s reputation, especially for consumers who value Japanese authenticity. Premium brands, such as Ippodo, emphasize Japanese origin as a differentiator, making substitution by international alternatives a challenge.

Furthermore, increasing production in other countries also faces climatic and logistical barriers. China, for example, deals with environmental pollution and land restrictions, while South Korea has limited production, mainly aimed at the domestic market.

• Matcha from China and South Korea does not meet Japanese standards.
• Imports may compromise premium brand reputation.
• Alternative production faces climatic barriers.

Future of the matcha market

The matcha boom reflects a shift in consumption habits, with consumers seeking products associated with health and aesthetics. However, Japan’s inability to meet global demand exposes fragilities in the agricultural sector. The combination of climatic, demographic, and logistical factors requires long-term solutions, such as investment in technology and rural revitalization.

While the Japanese government tries to expand production, the global market may see even higher prices and greater dependence on international alternatives. For consumers, the matcha fever continues, but with the risk of empty shelves and variable quality products.

• Projected growth of the matcha market: US$ 5 billion by 2028.
• Prices expected to continue rising with shortage.
• Need for innovation in cultivation and processing.