The market is currently straddling the key short-term support zone at $77.05 to $78.70. We’ve been watching this area all week and believe it is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

A sustained move over the upper level at $78.70 will indicate the presence of buyers. If they can build on this move with strong volume, they should have an easy time taking out the two tops standing in the way of another record high.

Key Downside Levels to Watch

If the lower or 50% level at $77.05 fails, then prices could retreat all the way back to the uptrend line that has been leading the market higher since the main bottom at $48.64 on November 21. The trendline comes in at $74.83 today. It was successfully tested earlier in the week at $73.84.

This technical indicator is important to the intermediate trend. If it is taken out with conviction then prices could retreat all the way back to a pivot at $72.41 and eventually the main bottom at $70.07.

Weak Jobs Data Ignites 6% Intraday Rally

XAGUSD jumped on Friday as investors reacted to weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs growth, tightening global supply, and rising geopolitical uncertainty. Today’s more than 6% gain at the top represented another large single-day gain that has been the norm lately and followed a volatile trading week that saw silver swing from a near-record high to nearly a one-week low.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

The market was trading nearly flat earlier today ahead of a U.S. jobs report and a widely expected ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court. A rebound began after fresh U.S. labor market data showed the economy added only 50,000 nonfarm jobs in December, far below recent monthly averages. The softer hiring numbers strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may accelerate interest-rate cuts in 2026, a move that is likely to weaken the dollar and consequently strengthen demand for dollar-denominated silver.