Thursday’s Energy Information Administration storage report is expected to show a 55 to 65 Bcf injection for the week ended September 25. The last report had a 53 Bcf build, putting working gas at 3,351 Bcf. That left inventories 2.9% above the five-year seasonal average.

Short-covering off a light number is about the best buyers can hope for Thursday. The supply cushion doesn’t go anywhere. The EIA sees end-of-October inventories near 3,985 Bcf, the highest level in a decade and 5% above the five-year average.

What to Watch

Thursday’s storage report is the next thing on the calendar. The weather models are going to matter more. Buyers need a colder forecast or another Appalachian supply problem to get back in, and right now they don’t have either one. Sellers are working with low demand and plenty of gas in storage.

The main trend is down on the daily swing chart, with the bias leaning bearish. Buyers came in under $3.00 and pushed the contract through the 50-day moving average at $3.039 during the session. They couldn’t hold it. At 17:10 GMT, November natural gas was back under it and well short of the broken retracement zone. $3.087 is the level buyers have to take back.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.