Spot Gold is trading higher Wednesday, however, the main trend remains down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the lower top at $4,399.67 will change the main trend to up. Monday’s low at $4,110.87 is the immediate downside trigger. A trade through that price will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The long-term retracement zone is $4,319.61 to $4,230.51. Gold broke through the lower boundary Monday, turning the zone into resistance. The 50-day moving average at $4,323.00 is also nearby.

The 200-day moving average at $4,539.29 is providing long-term resistance and trend direction. Gold is trading below both moving averages.

Wednesday’s high at $4,202.39 is only a high at this point. It does not establish a new top or change the swing-chart structure. The next major support is the August swing bottom at $3,996.06, followed by the main bottom at $3,942.10.

What to Watch

The PCE report hits with the October hike trade already pulled back and a December increase still heavily priced. Williams bought the market some time. Barr isn’t convinced the Fed can afford it. Non-Farm Payrolls follow on Friday, so whatever PCE starts, the jobs data gets to finish.

A softer core PCE number could extend the pullback in yields and give buyers a shot at $4,230.51. A firm reading would leave Wednesday’s rally looking like short-covering and put Monday’s low back in play.

The bias leans bearish with the main trend down on the daily swing chart. Buyers came in off Monday’s $4,110.87 low. Wednesday morning’s rally remains well short of the level gold broke through Monday. Sellers are still sitting there, untouched by the bounce. Buyers haven’t touched $4,230.51 yet.