JAKARTA – Analysts have again raised their global oil price forecasts for 2026 as energy supply disruptions continue due to the Iran conflict and trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain below pre-crisis levels.

According to a Reuters survey of 33 economists and analysts, the average price of Brent crude is now expected to reach US$90.44 per barrel in 2026, up from the previous month’s forecast of US$86.38 per barrel.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is projected to average US$84.63 per barrel, higher than April’s forecast of US$80.07 per barrel.

The latest increase marks the third consecutive upward revision since the Iran conflict began in late February. Compared with forecasts before the outbreak of the war, Brent and WTI price projections for 2026 have surged by around 40%.

Since the conflict started, Brent and WTI prices briefly climbed to their highest levels in four years, exceeding US$126 and US$119 per barrel respectively, as global energy supplies were disrupted following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Nevertheless, analysts believe the likelihood of oil prices reaching new record highs remains limited.

“The possibility of prices reaching a new record this year is very low. Although we expect prices to continue rising through July, any increase will be only marginal from current elevated levels,” said Surabhi Menon of EIU India.

“This assumption is based on the expectation that the situation in Iran will remain broadly unchanged, with the ceasefire holding and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, at least until the end of July.”

Data from Kpler show that Middle Eastern crude oil exports have fallen sharply since the crisis began. Export volumes, which previously averaged 18.3 million barrels per day, have now declined to approximately 8.8 million barrels per day.

NORD/LB analyst Thomas Wybierek expects energy distribution disruptions to persist longer than initially anticipated.

“These disruptions will last longer than expected until trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz return to pre-crisis levels,” he said.

“Even in the event of a ceasefire or some form of short-term peace agreement, we do not expect seaborne oil and gas shipments in 2026 to return to previous levels.”

Most analysts forecast that the global oil market will face a supply deficit throughout 2026. Estimates of the shortfall range from 500,000 to 8 million barrels per day.

On the demand side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth next year to 1.17 million barrels per day from a previous estimate of 1.38 million barrels per day.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has gone further, forecasting that global oil demand will decline by around 420,000 barrels per day.

“From a demand perspective, headwinds are increasing due to weaker macroeconomic conditions. Higher prices, weaker trade flows and downgraded GDP forecasts are weighing on consumption growth.

In essence, the conflict is tightening supply while simultaneously slowing demand growth,” said analysts at Crisil.

Although several OPEC+ members are expected to agree to a production increase at the upcoming 7 June meeting, analysts believe additional supply will provide limited relief as long as export routes through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted.

“The binding constraint is not production quotas but the physical inability to move additional barrels through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning production policy remains largely symbolic while exports continue to be disrupted,” said UniCredit analyst Tobias Keller. (DH/LM)