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19 12, 2025

XAU/USD seems vulnerable amid firmer USD

By |2025-12-19T08:53:42+02:00December 19, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Gold (XAU/USD) extends the previous day’s late pullback from the vicinity of the record high and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Friday. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Thursday pointed to cooling of inflationary pressure. This turns out to be a key factor undermining demand for the previous metal, which is seen as a hedge against rising prices. Furthermore, renewed US Dollar (USD) buying interest and a positive risk tone exert additional downward pressure on the commodity.

A delayed report published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the headline CPI rose by the 2.7% YoY rate in November against 3.1% expected. Moreover, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also missed consensus estimates and climbed 2.6% last month. Economists, however, warned that the figures were likely distorted on the back of the longest-ever US government shutdown. This, in turn, assists the USD in attracting for the third straight day and climbs back closer to the weekly top, touched on Wednesday. A firmer Greenback tends to dent demand for USD-denominated commodities, including Gold.

Nevertheless, the crucial inflation data did little to temper expectations of further policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders are still pricing in a 63 basis points (bps) of rate cuts in 2026. Adding to this, US President Donald Trump said the next Fed chair will be someone who backs sharply lower interest rates. This, in turn, could offer support to the non-yielding Gold. Meanwhile, the prospects for lower US interest rates revive investors’ appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets and offsets the supporting factor, backing the case for a further near-term depreciating move for the XAU/USD pair.

Traders now look to the US economic docket – featuring Existing Home Sales and the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. This, along with comments from influential FOMC members, might provide some impetus to the USD and produce short-term opportunities around the Gold. Meanwhile, the XAU/USD pair still seems poised to register modest gains for the second straight week. The fundamental backdrop, however, suggests that the path of least resistance for the bullion is to the downside and warrants caution for bullish traders, though a break and acceptance below the $4.300 mark is needed to reaffirm the negative outlook.

XAU/USD 1-hour chart

Technical Outlook

The overnight fake breakout through the $4,350-$4,355 supply zone and a subsequent fall below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Friday favor the XAU/USD bears. However, mixed oscillators on hourly and daily charts make it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the $4,300 mark before positioning for deeper losses. The bullion might then fall to the $4,272-4,271 region, or the weekly low. This is followed by the $4,260-4,255 horizontal resistance breakpoint-turned-support, which, if broken, would suggest that the Gold price has topped out and expose the $4,200 round figure.

On the flip side, the $4,338-4,340 zone now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the XAU/USD pair could make a fresh attempt towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $4,380 region, touched in October. Some follow-through buying, leading to a move beyond the $4,400 mark, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and allow the Gold price to prolong its recent well-established trend from sub-$3,900 levels, or the October swing low.



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19 12, 2025

what next for Japanese yen after the BoJ hike? — TradingView News

By |2025-12-19T08:20:33+02:00December 19, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

The Japanese yen slumped for the second consecutive day, even as the BoJ delivered its interest rate decision. The USDJPY pair rose to a high of 156, up sharply from this week’s low of 154.37.

Japanese yen falls after the BoJ interest rate hike 

The USD to JPY exchange rate drifted upwards, even after the BoJ hiked the interest rate for the first time in eleven months. It pushed them to the highest level since 1995, continuing a trend that it started late last year.

Japanese stocks rose after the BoJ rate hike, with the Nikkei 225 Index and the Topix jumping by over 1%. Similarly, Japanese bond yields continued rising, with the 10-year hitting the key resistance level at 2%.

The USDJPY exchange rate rose because the BoJ rate hike was already priced in by market participants. Indeed, the odds of a hike on Polymarket stood at 99% before the meeting. Most analysts were expecting the bank to hike as Kazuo Ueda had hinted.

The pair also jumped as investors waited for Kazuo Ueda’s press conference, where he will share more details on what the bank will do in 2026. In a note, an analyst from Eastspring said:

“Dollar-yen is higher because there’s no indication of more imminent hikes, and because Takata and Tamura issued ‘dissents’ on the price outlook even though the decision to hike was unanimous.”

US inflation and odds of interest rate cuts 

The USDJPY exchange rate also reacted to the latest US consumer inflation report on Thursday. A report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped from 3% in October to 2.6% in November, the lowest figure in months.

The core CPI dropped from 3.1% in October to 2.7% in November this year. This trend will likely continue in the foreseeable future because of the performance in the energy sector.

Data shows that the price of crude oil has continued falling in the past few months, with Brent and the West of Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropping to $59 and $55, respectively.

Therefore, there is a possibility that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will continue to diverge in the coming year. Analysts expect the Fed to keep cutting interest rates, while the BoJ may deliver one or more hikes.

USDJPY technical analysis 

FX:USDJPY” class=”wp-image-3007121″ / loading=”lazy” >

The daily timeframe chart shows that the USDJPY exchange rate has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months.

It jumped from a low of 139.90 in April to the current 156.07. It has remained above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The pair has remained above the Supertrend indicator and is slowly forming a bullish flag pattern. This pattern is made up of a vertical line and a descending channel, which has been in place for the past few weeks.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the USDJPY exchange rate continues rising, with the next key target being the year-to-date high of 157.82. A move above that level will point to more upside, potentially to 160 in the next few months.

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19 12, 2025

Federal Circuit Rejects KAHWA Trademark Refusal

By |2025-12-19T08:11:38+02:00December 19, 2025|Dietary Supplements News, News|0 Comments


The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit reversed a Trademark Trial & Appeal Board decision upholding refusal of the KAHWA mark for cafés and coffee shops, holding that the doctrine of foreign equivalents was inapplicable since KAHWA has a well-established alternative English meaning. In re Bayou Grande Coffee Roasting Co., Case No. 2024-1118 (Fed. Cir. Dec. 9, 2025) (Moore, Hughes, Stoll, JJ.)

In February 2021, Bayou applied to trademark KAHWA for cafés and coffee shops, claiming use since 2008. The examiner refused, deeming the mark generic or descriptive under the doctrine of foreign equivalents, asserting that KAHWA means “coffee” in Arabic. Bayou argued that it instead refers to a specific type of Kashmiri green tea not sold in US cafés or coffee shops. The examiner upheld refusals on both grounds and denied reconsideration.

On appeal, the Board affirmed the examiner’s refusals based on the Kashmiri green tea meaning but did not address the Arabic meaning. The Board found KAHWA generic and descriptive for cafés and coffee shops due to record evidence showing relevant customers regarded KAHWA as the generic description for a type of green tea beverage, and cafés and coffee shops serve a variety of tea beverages. Bayou appealed.

The Federal Circuit first determined that the Board’s generic and merely descriptive findings based on the Kashmiri green tea meaning did not constitute new grounds of rejection. The Court also reversed the Board’s generic and merely descriptive findings based on the Kashmiri green tea meaning.

The Federal Circuit concluded that the Board’s generic finding was not supported by substantial evidence because of undisputed evidence that no café or coffee shop in the United States sells kahwa. Therefore, whether relevant customers understood KAHWA to refer to a specific type of Kashmiri green tea was insufficient to establish genericness. The Court also held that the Board’s merely descriptive finding was not supported by substantial evidence because kahwa is neither a product/feature of café and coffee shop services nor a tea variety typically offered there. Moreover, registering KAHWA would not grant Bayou rights against cafés or coffee shops merely selling kahwa, and potential future sales were irrelevant to the descriptiveness analysis.

Finally, the Federal Circuit held that because KAHWA’s undisputed English meaning is Kashmiri green tea, translation was unnecessary, and the doctrine of foreign equivalents did not apply. Under the doctrine of foreign equivalents, a foreign mark may be translated into English to evaluate it for genericness or descriptiveness. However, translation is not required when consumers would not translate, or when the mark has a well‑established alternative meaning that makes the literal translation irrelevant.



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19 12, 2025

Solana Price Prediction: Can ETF Momentum And Whale Interest Stabilize SOL Or Is Pepeto A Better Investment

By |2025-12-19T08:05:46+02:00December 19, 2025|Crypto News, News|0 Comments

Presale Momentum and Fundamentals Behind Pepeto Price Potential

Some presale performance of Pepeto supports their high upside narrative. The project has already raised over $7.1 million, standing at the price of $0.000000172, which is telling of the early conviction. Its 420 trillion tokens supply follows a structure that is familiar to meme investors, the same structure as PEPE, but with a much smarter distribution, that allows for big price discovery.

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19 12, 2025

USD/JPY Forecast: Mild Gains Despite Upbeat Japan CPI, Eyes on BoJ

By |2025-12-19T06:19:46+02:00December 19, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The USD/JPY forecast is expected to tilt downside as the BoJ rate hike expectations increase the yen’s demand.
  • The US CPI data showed a cooling momentum, while Japan’s inflation remains sticky.
  • Fed-BoJ divergence could support the USD/JPY in the near term.

The USD/JPY is trading under pressure in anticipation of the Bank of Japan’s policy announcement. However, the pair has slightly gained despite an upbeat national CPI in Japan.

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The BoJ will announce its rate decision between 03:30 and 05:00 GMT, and the press conference of Governor Kazuo Ueda will take place at 06:30 GMT. Investors are awaiting clarity, which is reducing trading activity.

The BoJ is expected to increase its policy rate to 0.75% from 0.50%. This would be the highest in nearly 30 years, if confirmed. The action would suggest that inflation and wage growth are sufficiently high to warrant stricter policy. Recent inflation statistics support this, as Japan’s national CPI increased by 2.9% in November. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes fresh food, stood at 3.0%.

The USD/JPY remains choppy ahead of the meeting. The pair has partially erased the losses, but the selling pressure has appeared in gradual steps, implying a strategic positioning rather than a panic-driven response.

US data has also played a role. The November CPI was reported as 2.7% YoY, which is significantly lower than the expected 3.1% while core CPI slowed to 2.6%. The price gain was only 0.2% per month. The statistics alleviated concerns about inflation, allowing the Fed to maintain its easing policy in 2026. The Treasury yields fell, pushing the greenback lower against most of its peers.

The policy divergence between the US and Japan is evident, influencing the USD/JPY trades. Japan is heading towards a rate hike, while the US is looking to ease further in 2026. The narrowing yield gaps support the yen, devaluing the dollar.

USD/JPY Technical Forecast: Awaiting a Breakout

USD/JPY Forecast: Mild Gains Despite Upbeat Japan CPI, Eyes on BoJ
USD/JPY 4-hour chart

The USD/JPY price remains technically supported by the confluence of 20- and 200-period MAs, while wobbling around the 50- and 100-period MAs. Meanwhile, the RSI stays above the 50.0 level but is flat. This suggests the pair lies in the consolidation phase, awaiting a catalyst to trigger a breakout.

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A breakout below the 20-period MA could push the prices to test the demand zone near 154.50 ahead of a horizontal level at 153.00. On the upside, the first resistance level emerges at 156.00, ahead of a potential swing high near the December highs at 156.90.

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19 12, 2025

Crypto crash prediction after BOJ rate hike: Will BOJ rate hike trigger a crypto crash? Here’s how it might impact Bitcoin price (BTC USD), Ethereum, XRP and other altcoins

By |2025-12-19T06:04:50+02:00December 19, 2025|Crypto News, News|0 Comments

Crypto crash prediction after BOJ rate hike: Cryptocurrency markets are facing heightened volatility this week as investors await the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) interest rate decision, scheduled for December 19. Bitcoin and other major digital assets have pulled back in recent sessions amid rising odds of a historic rate hike.

Bitcoin price USD today dips to $84,567 amid BOJ rate hike expectations

Bitcoin was trading at 84,567 on Thursday, down about 7% from this month’s high and roughly 30% below its all-time peak.

Meanwhile, Polymarket assigns a 99% probability to a BOJ rate increase, reflecting growing market expectations, as per a Crypto.News report.

BOJ’s historic rate hike could impact global crypto liquidity

The BOJ, one of the world’s largest central banks with over $4.48 trillion in assets and the biggest holder of US government bonds, has maintained ultra-low interest rates for decades to stimulate borrowing and economic growth. Rising inflation and a weakening yen, however, have prompted the central bank to signal a 0.25% increase, taking rates from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest level in decades, as per a Coinpedia report.

A rate hike from the BOJ could ripple through cryptocurrency markets. Historically, crypto thrives on liquidity fueled by low borrowing costs. When central banks tighten policy, liquidity dries up, often triggering sell-offs in speculative assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP.


ALSO READ: Bitcoin price today: Why BTC USD fell below $86,000 and why $23 billion Bitcoin options expiry sparks year-end volatility fears

Carry trades may reverse, adding pressure on BTC USD and altcoins

Investors are also watching global carry trades closely. Japan has long been a source of cheap capital, with investors borrowing yen at low rates to invest in higher-yielding assets such as US stocks or crypto. A rate hike narrows the yield spread and may prompt investors to unwind these trades, adding further selling pressure to crypto markets.

Technical analysis shows Bitcoin price USD forming bearish flag pattern

Technical indicators show Bitcoin forming a bearish flag pattern on the daily chart. The coin remains below the Supertrend indicator and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average, approaching the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

ALSO READ: Why gold prices today are near an all-time high as softer US inflation fuels Fed rate cuts for 2026

Bitcoin price approaches key support near $74,423

Analysts warn this could see Bitcoin testing its year-to-date low of $74,423, around 15% below current levels, as per the Crypto.News report.

Potential rebound could see Bitcoin retest $94,500

Despite the bearish outlook, Bitcoin could briefly rebound to retest the upper side of the flag near $94,500 before potentially resuming a downward trend.

Lessons from 2022 Fed rate hikes suggest caution for crypto

As per the Coinpedia report, after the US Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2022, Bitcoin prices crashed from over $60,000 to under $20,000 in a few months and now analysts say a similar effect could be seen if the BOJ proceeds with the expected rate hike.

FAQs

How likely is a BOJ rate hike?

Polymarket shows a 99% chance of a rate increase.

Why does a BOJ rate hike matter for crypto?

Higher rates reduce liquidity, which can trigger sell-offs in crypto markets.

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19 12, 2025

USD/JPY Forecast 19/12: Pullbacks Attract Buyers (Chart)

By |2025-12-19T04:18:56+02:00December 19, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The US dollar reversed after an initial rally as softer CPI data fueled rate-cut speculation, keeping USD/JPY volatile.
  • Despite near-term noise and Bank of Japan risk, pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities amid a persistent rate differential.

The US dollar initially rallied during the trading session on Thursday, but gave back gains rather quickly, mainly due to the CPI numbers coming out with a lower-than-anticipated number in the United States. Therefore, people are starting to focus on the idea of whether or not the Federal Reserve may have to cut rates more quickly.

With that being the case, the market remains very noisy, and it does make a certain amount of sense that we continue to see a lot of volatility, but that’s nothing new for this pair. Furthermore, you also have to keep in mind that on Friday, we get the interest rate decision coming out of the Bank of Japan, so this is a pair that could get turned around right away.

Key Levels, Policy Risk, and Trade Bias

With that being the case, this is watched very closely, and pullbacks are being viewed at this point in time as buying opportunities. The 50-day EMA is near the 4.12 level and rising, and it should offer a little bit of support. The ¥158 level above is where a potential target is being watched.

Whether or not the market gets there between now and the end of the year is a completely different question, but it is expected eventually. The interest rate differential will continue to favor the Americans for the foreseeable future, and inflation and growth in the United States are expected to remain above the optimal level for the central bank. Therefore, the Federal Reserve will likely have to be a little cautious with its rate-cutting cycle.

This does not appear to be a major inflection point, at least not yet. As a result, there is no real reason to believe that the Japanese yen is going to appreciate significantly. There may be the potential for a pullback in this pair after the Bank of Japan statement or press conference, but that should be looked at as a potential opportunity.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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19 12, 2025

MATIC Price Prediction: $0.45 Target by January 2026 Despite Current Technical Weakness

By |2025-12-19T04:03:35+02:00December 19, 2025|Crypto News, News|0 Comments



Ted Hisokawa
Dec 18, 2025 08:21

MATIC price prediction suggests a recovery to $0.45 within 4-6 weeks, though immediate bearish momentum could test $0.33 support first.

MATIC Price Prediction: Technical Recovery Expected Despite Near-Term Headwinds

MATIC Price Prediction Summary

• MATIC short-term target (1 week): $0.35-$0.40 (-8% to +5% from current $0.38)
• Polygon medium-term forecast (1 month): $0.42-$0.47 range (+11% to +24% upside)
• Key level to break for bullish continuation: $0.43 (20-day SMA resistance)
• Critical support if bearish: $0.33 (strong technical support level)

Recent Polygon Price Predictions from Analysts

The recent analyst predictions from CoinArbitrageBot show a concerning disconnect from current market reality. While their MATIC price prediction models suggested targets between $0.21-$0.23 over the past week, MATIC has actually been trading 65-70% higher at $0.38. This significant variance highlights the challenges in short-term crypto forecasting.

However, the analysts’ methodology of identifying “sustained bullish momentum” and “positive market sentiment” aligns with our technical observation that Polygon has been holding above the critical $0.33 support level. The consensus prediction of gradual upward movement, while off on absolute price levels, correctly identified the underlying trend direction.

MATIC Technical Analysis: Setting Up for Consolidation Before Recovery

The current Polygon technical analysis reveals a cryptocurrency in transition. With MATIC trading at $0.38, the token sits precisely at its pivot point, suggesting a period of equilibrium between buyers and sellers. The RSI at 38.00 indicates oversold conditions without reaching extreme levels, providing room for recovery.

The MACD histogram showing -0.0045 confirms bearish momentum in the short term, but the relatively shallow negative reading suggests this selling pressure may be waning. More telling is MATIC’s position within the Bollinger Bands at 0.29, indicating the price is in the lower portion of its recent trading range but not at extreme oversold levels.

Volume analysis shows $1.07 million in 24-hour Binance spot trading, which represents moderate but not exceptional interest. This volume level suggests any breakout from current levels would need additional catalyst confirmation.

Polygon Price Targets: Bull and Bear Scenarios

Bullish Case for MATIC

Our primary MATIC price target focuses on the 20-day SMA at $0.43, representing a 13% gain from current levels. This Polygon forecast is based on the historical tendency for MATIC to find support at current levels and bounce toward moving average resistance.

The next major MATIC price target lies at the 7-day SMA of $0.37, which could act as initial resistance before the larger move to $0.43. Should momentum accelerate, the 50-day SMA at $0.45 becomes the medium-term objective, offering nearly 20% upside potential.

For the bullish case to materialize, MATIC needs to hold above the $0.35 immediate support level and show increasing volume on any upward moves. A break above $0.40 with conviction would confirm the recovery scenario.

Bearish Risk for Polygon

The downside MATIC price prediction centers on the $0.33 strong support level. A break below this critical level could trigger accelerated selling toward the 52-week low of $0.37 – though notably, current prices are already testing this historical floor.

The most concerning bearish scenario would see MATIC fall below $0.31, the lower Bollinger Band, which could indicate a breakdown toward the $0.25-$0.28 range. This would represent a 25-35% decline from current levels and would likely require broader crypto market weakness to materialize.

Risk factors include continued MACD deterioration, RSI falling below 30 into oversold territory, and any break below the immediate $0.35 support with significant volume.

Should You Buy MATIC Now? Entry Strategy

The current technical setup presents a mixed but potentially rewarding opportunity for those wondering whether to buy or sell MATIC. The optimal entry strategy involves a layered approach given the uncertain short-term direction.

For immediate entries, consider accumulating MATIC between $0.36-$0.38 with a tight stop-loss at $0.34. This provides a favorable risk-reward ratio targeting the $0.43 resistance level. More conservative investors should wait for either a clear break above $0.40 for momentum confirmation or a test of the $0.33 support for value entry.

Position sizing should remain modest given the current uncertainty, with no more than 2-3% of portfolio allocation recommended. The key is maintaining flexibility to add on strength above $0.40 or cut losses below $0.33.

MATIC Price Prediction Conclusion

Our comprehensive MATIC price prediction suggests a consolidation period followed by recovery toward $0.43-$0.45 over the next 4-6 weeks. While short-term bearish momentum creates near-term uncertainty, the technical foundation for Polygon forecast improvement remains intact.

The confidence level for this prediction is MEDIUM, given the mixed technical signals and broader crypto market volatility. Key indicators to watch include RSI movement above 45, MACD histogram turning positive, and sustained trading above the $0.40 level.

The timeline for this Polygon forecast centers on early January 2026, when year-end positioning effects should subside and clearer technical trends emerge. Failure to hold $0.33 support would invalidate this prediction and suggest deeper correction toward $0.25-$0.28 levels.

Image source: Shutterstock


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19 12, 2025

CL=F $56, BZ=F $60 as Venezuela Blockade Meets Russia Sanctions

By |2025-12-19T02:49:47+02:00December 19, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Oil Price Today: WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F Hover Near Multi-Month Lows

Spot Levels and Year-to-Date Damage for WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F

Oil is weak, not collapsing. On 18 December 2025, WTI (CL=F) trades around $56–$57 and Brent (BZ=F) is near $60 per barrel. Intraday, Brent is up roughly 0.5–0.7% around $59.9–$60.1, while WTI adds about 0.7–1.0% near $56.3–$56.5, a modest bounce after WTI closed near $55.27 earlier in the week, its lowest settle since February 2021. Even after this uptick, 2025 remains a drawdown year: WTI is down roughly 21% year-to-date, and Brent is lower by just under 20%, consistent with a market that has been pricing oversupply and soft demand rather than a persistent shortage.

Geopolitics vs Glut: Blockade Noise, Russia Sanctions Risk and PDVSA Turmoil

Today’s modest rise is driven by a geopolitical risk premium, not by a structural tightening in balances. The United States has ordered a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned tankers moving Venezuelan crude in and out of the country. Estimates suggest around 600,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan exports are potentially at risk, with flows to the U.S. of roughly 160,000 bpd still partially protected by authorizations linked to Chevron (NYSE:CVX) cargoes. Venezuelan flows represent roughly 1% of global supply, but sanctioned tonnage and insurance risk inject volatility into freight and risk pricing. At the same time, Venezuela’s PDVSA is recovering from a cyberattack that temporarily froze loadings. While operations have resumed, many export shipments remain delayed, adding another layer of uncertainty to short-term export volumes. Parallel to Venezuela, traders are watching the prospect of tighter U.S. sanctions on Russia’s energy sector if peace talks over Ukraine stall, plus new European measures targeting dozens of vessels in Russia’s “shadow fleet” designed to constrain sanctioned crude transport. In theory, these steps should be clearly bullish. In practice, the price impact is capped because the market’s dominant narrative is still “too much oil”, not “too little.”

Evidence of Oversupply: Inventories, Products and Oil on Water

Recent U.S. inventory data highlight the imbalance. Crude stocks fell by roughly 1.3 million barrels to about 424.4 million barrels in the week ending 12 December, but gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected. The crude draw is driven mainly by stronger exports and higher refinery runs, not by a surge in end-demand. Refinery utilization has climbed to the highest levels since early September, yet refined product stocks are building. That tells you the system is well supplied: refineries are processing heavily, but downstream demand is not tight enough to absorb output cleanly. Globally, official outlooks for 2025–2026 show demand growth around 830,000 bpd in 2025 and 860,000 bpd in 2026, while observed inventories rise and crude held “on water” increases sharply as cargoes take longer routes or sit waiting for buyers. Analyst scenarios for 2026 point to potential surpluses ranging roughly from 0.5 million bpd to over 4 million bpd, depending on how OPEC+, U.S. shale and new producers like Brazil, Guyana and Argentina behave. That is why every geopolitical shock is being faded: the default assumption is structural surplus, so disruptions must be large and prolonged to reprice the complex in a lasting way.

2026 Outlook for WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F: Mid-$50s to Low-$60s Strip

Forward price projections for Brent (BZ=F) in 2026 cluster around the low-to-mid $50–$60 range, with WTI (CL=F) a few dollars lower. One major official U.S. forecast sees Brent averaging around $55 in Q1 2026 and staying close to that through the year. A large investment bank projects Brent around $56 and WTI near $52 in 2026, again reflecting depressed but not catastrophic pricing. A survey of analysts published recently shows Brent averaging about $62.2 and WTI around $59.0 in 2026. Different methodologies, similar conclusion: nobody is modeling a structurally tight oil market next year. Where they differ is timing of the turn. Several houses argue that by 2027 prices will need to move higher to incentivize new upstream investment as reserve life shrinks and U.S. shale matures, but the consensus is that 2026 itself is a low-pricing, surplus year, not a major bull market.

U.S. Shale, OPEC+ and the Pain Threshold Around $50 WTI CL=F

The WTI (CL=F) strip around $55–$57 is already uncomfortable for many producers. Internal modeling at major banks suggests that if WTI averages $57 in 2026, U.S. shale output could shrink by roughly 70,000 bpd instead of growing. Some official projections go further and flag a possible ~100,000 bpd drop in U.S. crude output in 2026 from 2025 levels as lower prices and a smaller rig fleet cap production. U.S. oil rig counts are down more than 15% from the start of the year and sit at their lowest since late 2021, consistent with a sector moving from “growth at any cost” to capital discipline. For many independents, WTI in the low-$50s is close to the point where protecting balance sheets takes priority over adding barrels. Even for supermajors, sustained prices near $50 compress returns on higher-cost projects. For OPEC producers, that price band is fiscally painful. This is why WTI around $50 is unlikely to be sustainable for long. Below that, a forced response is probable: deeper OPEC+ cuts, postponed projects, and a more aggressive capex reset in shale. The current strip fully prices a surplus, but it does not yet price a world where producers are forced into a meaningful supply contraction.

Demand Side for Oil: Weak Optics but No Structural Collapse Yet

On the demand side, the headline story is cautious: slower global growth, efficiency gains and the rise of alternatives. Yet several factors limit how bearish you can be. Earlier in 2025, tariff and trade-war risk was a major overhang. That pressure has eased after a new round of trade deals, reducing one large source of demand uncertainty. At the same time, fresh data show stronger fuel demand from India, which is now one of the key marginal buyers of crude globally. Forecasts that once called for oil demand to peak by the early 2030s have been pushed out. Some large institutions now expect demand to keep rising until at least 2040, albeit at a slower pace. This does not rescue 2026 – which still looks like “too much supply versus moderate demand growth” – but it clearly shows that long-term demand is not collapsing. The near-term tape is driven by inventory builds and oversupply; the long-term tape still has a clear consumption base.

Technical Structure: WTI CL=F Testing $55, Brent BZ=F Pinned at $60

Price action for WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) fully reflects the fundamental picture: fragile bounces inside a broader downtrend. For WTI (CL=F), the $55 zone is the key short-term floor. A decisive break below $55 exposes the $52 region quickly, based on the next support band. Moves higher into the $58–$60 area are still being treated as rallies to sell, not as the start of a new uptrend, because there is no evidence yet of structural tightening in balances. For Brent (BZ=F), price is hovering around $60, which has become a pivot rather than a firm support. Repeated attempts to gap higher toward the low $60s have been sold off and quickly filled. A break below roughly $58 would likely drag Brent toward $55, consistent with the 2026 averages being projected. Momentum indicators and the pattern of failed bounces both point to a market trying to form a bottom but not confirmed. There is no technical validation of a bull phase until WTI can sustain trades above roughly $60 and Brent can push and hold into the mid-$60s. For now, the pattern remains sell-the-rally, not buy-the-dip.

Forward Curve, Producer Sentiment and the Floor-Versus-Ceiling Dynamic

The forward curve reinforces this picture. The strip implies Brent (BZ=F) in the mid-$50s to low-$60s and WTI (CL=F) in the low-to-high-$50s for 2026, matching the bulk of published forecasts. Industry executives are guiding for another dull year in 2026 with low prices, muted upstream spending and limited growth in production. At the same time, large integrated producers are clear that prices at this level are not viable indefinitely if the world wants stable supply into the 2030s. Stronger balance sheets at names like Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) allow them to operate through this strip, but they will not rush to sanction expensive long-cycle projects until pricing improves. Smaller shale operators are already throttling activity, which is why several projections show U.S. output potentially dipping next year despite sizeable resources. This creates a floor-versus-ceiling regime: the floor is set by the point at which producers start cutting supply aggressively, likely the low-$50s WTI / low-$50s Brent band, and by geopolitical risk around Russia and Venezuela; the ceiling is imposed by high inventories, surging oil on water and credible surplus forecasts that make every spike look like a selling opportunity.

Investment View on WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F: Tactical Bearish, Strategic Hold

Combining spot, fundamentals, technicals and the curve leads to a clear stance on WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) at current prices. With WTI around $56–$57 and Brent near $60, the market is trading close to the center of the 2026 forecast range. Supply-demand projections and inventory trends argue that oversupply will keep rallies capped through most of 2026 unless there is a large, sustained disruption. At the same time, prices much below $50 WTI / low-$50s Brent would almost certainly force a supply reaction from U.S. shale and OPEC+, and most serious outlooks are already baking in some degree of restraint. Based on the data, the view is: near term (next 6–12 months), tactical bias is bearish, with strength into roughly $60+ WTI / mid-$60s Brent still better used for selling rather than chasing. Over 12–24 months, stance is HOLD on crude benchmarks: the downside toward the low-$50s is real as long as the surplus story dominates, but structural under-investment and maturing shale give a credible path back into the $65–$75 Brent zone later in the decade.

That’s TradingNEWS






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19 12, 2025

New Weight Loss Pill Could Burn Fat Without Muscle Loss

By |2025-12-19T02:08:37+02:00December 19, 2025|Dietary Supplements News, News|0 Comments


GLP-1 style treatments like Ozempic and Mounjaro are doing wonders when it comes to helping people lose unwanted bodyfat, but research indicates that lean mass could also fall thanks to GLP-1, leading to an almost 40% drop in skeletal muscle in some cases. That’s why news of a new drug that can burn fat while preserving muscle could be a game changer, even complimenting existing treatments.

Encouraging results from a study on the new drug, known technically as a “GRK-biased adrenergic agonist,” have been extremely promising. Firstly, it’s available as an oral pill, meaning no nasty needles, and secondly, this compound doesn’t act on hunger levels. GRK-biased drugs boost metabolic activity within the muscle instead of encouraging appetite loss.

What do we know so far about Compound 15?

Results from an important study that came as a result of work by the Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm University, both in Sweden, were recently published in the Cell Press journal, and come from an important phase I clinical trial involving 48 healthy volunteers alongside 25 individuals with type 2 diabetes, showing that it could lower blood pressure and increase fat burning capabilities within the body, leading to longer lives.

The active substance in this novel drug is a lab developed compound dubbed “Compound 15,” that benefits muscle function but doesn’t overstimulate the heart. “Our results point to a future where we can improve metabolic health without losing muscle mass,” explained Tore Bengtsson, who is professor at the Department of Molecular Bioscience, Wenner-Gren Institute, Stockholm University.  And that’s important, because “muscle mass is also directly correlated with life expectancy,” he added.

Because Compound 15 works via a different pathway to GLP-1 treatments, it may be effective as a standalone drug or paired with others like Ozempic or Mounjaro for supercharged results. So, for those who have shunned GLP-1s because of needles and the potential effects on muscle mass, this is seriously great news. “This drug represents a completely new type of treatment and has the potential to be of great importance for patients with type 2 diabetes and obesity,” said Shane C. Wright, who is an assistant professor at the Department of Physiology and Pharmacology at Karolinska Institutet. “Our substance appears to promote healthy weight loss, and, in addition, patients do not have to take injections.”

When will Compound 15 be made available to the public?

Experts say the next phase in rolling out the miracle drug will depend on a larger, phase II clinical trial, but medical practitioners and those who like to stay in shape are already excited for the prospect of an obesity or type 2 diabetes drug that can protect muscle, especially concerning the recent news that Metformin, another popular type 2 diabetes treatment, can potentially undermine the benefits of exercise.



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