NEW YORK/LONDON/SINGAPORE — Dec. 24, 2025 — U.S. natural gas futures were softer in holiday-thinned Christmas Eve trading, giving back part of Tuesday’s sharp rebound as traders reassessed near-term weather forecasts, the durability of record LNG-driven demand, and the winter storage trajectory.

By late morning, NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures were trading around $4.29 per MMBtu, down from the prior close near $4.41, with prices moving inside a session range roughly spanning the low-$4.20s to the mid-$4.50s. ^[1]

That pullback comes after a dramatic “risk-on” reset earlier in the week. On Tuesday, front-month U.S. gas futures surged roughly 4% amid record-high feedgas flows to U.S. LNG export plants and expectations for higher demand in the next two weeks. ^[2]

Natural gas price action today: a post-rally breather in holiday trade

The story of natural gas on December 24, 2025 is less about a single headline and more about the market’s tug-of-war:

• Bullish forces: LNG exports are running exceptionally strong, and the market is still digesting a winter that began with a meaningful cold push.
• Bearish forces: Weather models have been prone to whiplash; even small shifts warmer can quickly reduce heating demand expectations—especially when trading liquidity is thin around the holidays.

The result: volatile, sometimes abrupt swings that can look outsized relative to the fundamental change on any one update—particularly in a shortened, lightly staffed session.

The big driver: weather forecasts are still the steering wheel

Weather remains the primary near-term catalyst because it changes residential and commercial heating demand faster than production can respond.

Recent industry tracking shows demand has already eased from early-December highs, with heating degree days (HDDs) down week-over-week in the latest readings—one reason futures have struggled to hold the most aggressive winter premium. ^[3]

At the same time, the U.S. government’s baseline forecast still leans firm for the winter as a whole. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (released Dec. 9), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its winter view and now expects the Henry Hub spot price to average around $4.30/MMBtu this winter (Nov–Mar), citing colder-than-expected December conditions. ^[4]

The EIA also notes it is assuming December HDDs are 8% above the 10-year average, a meaningful demand tailwind—though it also expects milder-than-normal weather in early 2026 to help cool prices after winter. ^[5]

LNG exports: the strongest pillar under U.S. prices, but not without limits

The modern U.S. gas market increasingly trades like a hybrid of domestic utility fuel and global seaborne commodity—and LNG is the bridge.

On Tuesday, Reuters-reported market coverage highlighted record flows to LNG export plants, with average feedgas flows to major facilities rising to about 18.5 Bcf/d so far this month, above the prior monthly record. ^[6]

EIA’s weekly market update underscores just how large the LNG channel has become: in the week ending Dec. 17, 33 LNG vessels departed U.S. ports with a combined capacity of about 126 Bcf. ^[7]

The risk traders are watching: shrinking LNG margins

Even with strong flows today, the market is increasingly focused on whether U.S. LNG economics remain compelling if domestic gas prices rise while global benchmark prices soften.

Reuters analysis earlier this month described a margin squeeze: Henry Hub prices have risen while European and Asian prices eased, narrowing the spread that supports U.S. LNG profitability. ^[8]

For now, LNG demand is still acting as a stabilizer for U.S. prices. But this margin discussion is important because it frames the key “next-level” risk: if the spread compresses far enough, exports become the release valve.

Storage: withdrawals are above normal, and the winter balance matters

Storage is the market’s scoreboard in winter. The latest EIA weekly update (covering the report week ending Dec. 17) showed:

• Net withdrawals of 167 Bcf for the week ending Dec. 12, well above the five-year average withdrawal for that week.
• Working gas inventories of 3,579 Bcf, slightly above the five-year average, but below year-ago levels. ^[9]

The EIA’s broader winter outlook expects December to be a heavy withdrawal month. It forecasts 580 Bcf withdrawn during December, about 28% above the five-year average for the month, and projects end-of-winter storage near 2,000 Bcf (about 9% above the five-year average). ^[10]

This is why even modest shifts in temperature guidance can move prices sharply: storage draws compound quickly during cold spells, and futures reprice the end-of-winter level in real time.

Production and rigs: supply is strong, but winter can still bite

Record or near-record production has been the market’s counterweight to winter weather risk.

One reason the supply story still looks resilient: U.S. drillers have not meaningfully pulled back activity in a way that would suggest imminent supply stress. In Baker Hughes’ holiday-adjusted rig count update, U.S. firms held gas rigs around 127, with total oil-and-gas rigs rising slightly week-over-week (though still down year-over-year). ^[11]

The EIA also expects U.S. output to remain high into next year: it projects dry natural gas production averaging about 109 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 2025 levels. ^[12]

That said, winter is the season when production can still surprise to the downside due to freeze-offs and operational interruptions—so the market continues to price some risk premium.

Europe today: TTF eases as colder risks moderate

Across the Atlantic, European gas pricing remains sensitive to weather, storage levels, and LNG arrivals—especially with the region still navigating the post-Russian pipeline era.

On Dec. 24, Europe’s benchmark Dutch TTF front-month eased to around €27.36/MWh (about $9.47/MMBtu) by mid-morning London time, as forecasts suggested a potentially quicker end to a cold spell and supply stayed stable. ^[13]

While Europe’s price level remains far above the ultra-cheap periods of the pre-2022 era, the market has become more two-sided: warm forecasts can soften prices quickly, while cold snaps still have the power to ignite rapid rallies.

The structural backdrop: policy shifts continue

Europe’s long-run gas architecture is also being reshaped by regulation. Reuters reported the European Parliament approved the EU plan to phase out Russian gas imports by late 2027, pushing the bloc toward longer-term reliance on LNG and alternative pipeline sources. ^[14]

Asia today: spot LNG edges up with South Korea demand in focus

In Asia, spot LNG prices have been supported by incremental winter buying, particularly where cold weather looks imminent.

A financial-market report citing Argus noted that South Korean buying interest emerged with temperatures expected to fall to two-year lows on Dec. 26, and that cargoes have been diverted from China to South Korea in recent weeks. ^[15]

This matters for U.S. gas because Asia is a major sink for Atlantic Basin LNG when economics work—supporting feedgas demand back in the United States.

Today’s LNG headline: Petronas signs new supply deal with China’s CNOOC

One of the most consequential “quiet” forces in gas markets is the steady accumulation of long-term LNG contracts—the contractual plumbing that underwrites new liquefaction capacity.

On Dec. 24, Reuters reported Malaysia’s Petronas signed an agreement to supply 1 million metric tons per annum of LNG to CNOOC Gas and Power in Singapore, deepening an existing relationship. ^[16]

Deals like this don’t usually move Henry Hub futures minute-by-minute, but they reinforce the macro reality: LNG remains a structural growth channel, even as short-term weather dominates the daily tape.

Natural gas forecast and outlook: what the market is pricing into early 2026

Putting today’s cross-currents together, the clearest near-term framework looks like this:

Base case: choppy but supported

• Prices stay volatile into year-end due to thin holiday liquidity and frequent weather model revisions.
• Strong LNG flows help put a floor under dips, unless global spreads compress sharply.

Bull case: sustained cold plus big draws

• If colder-than-normal weather persists longer than expected, storage withdrawals can accelerate—consistent with the EIA’s view that December is already running cold relative to assumptions. ^[17]

Bear case: a warm turn plus strong production

• If forecasts shift meaningfully warmer into early January, heating demand falls fast.
• With production strong and rigs steady, the market can quickly shed winter risk premium. ^[18]

The 2026 anchor

EIA expects Henry Hub to moderate after winter with milder early-2026 weather and rising production, averaging around $4.00/MMBtu next year in its baseline outlook. ^[19]

What to watch next

Natural gas traders and energy consumers are likely to keep a close eye on:

1. Weather model trends (especially late-December and early-January HDD forecasts). ^[20]
2. Weekly storage dynamics and whether withdrawals remain above normal. ^[21]
3. LNG feedgas flows and any terminal disruptions, given LNG’s outsized role in demand. ^[22]
4. Global LNG contract news that signals longer-term demand growth (e.g., Petronas–CNOOC). ^[23]
5. Policy and supply-chain developments that change global balances, such as Europe’s Russian gas phase-out timetable and other LNG-related regulation. ^[24]

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If you want, I can tailor this same Dec. 24, 2025 update into (1) a shorter Google Discover-style “tight read” (400–600 words) or (2) a longer newsroom feature (1,800–2,200 words) while keeping it fully source-grounded and SEO-focused.

References

1. www.investing.com, 2. www.bairdmaritime.com, 3. www.aga.org, 4. www.eia.gov, 5. www.eia.gov, 6. www.bairdmaritime.com, 7. www.eia.gov, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.eia.gov, 10. www.eia.gov, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.eia.gov, 13. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.lse.co.uk, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.eia.gov, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.eia.gov, 20. www.aga.org, 21. www.eia.gov, 22. www.eia.gov, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com

Gold, silver, and copper are rallying together in a rare, synchronized surge that is reshaping global commodity markets. As of December 24, 2025, gold trades near $4,494 per ounce, silver around $72.11 per ounce, and copper at $5.51 per pound. All three are posting their strongest annual gains in decades. Gold is up more than 70% year to date. Silver has surged over 140%, its best performance since the early 1980s. Copper has climbed roughly 36%, marking its biggest annual rise since 2009. This rally is not driven by speculation alone. It reflects deep structural forces reshaping the global economy. Investors are rushing toward metals as inflation risks linger, interest rates trend lower, and geopolitical uncertainty remains high. At the same time, copper and silver are benefiting from a massive industrial demand wave tied to artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and grid expansion.

The U.S. dollar is weakening at its fastest pace in years, boosting commodity prices worldwide. Central banks are aggressively accumulating gold to reduce reliance on dollar reserves. Supply disruptions, tariffs, and underinvestment in mining have tightened markets just as demand accelerates. Together, these forces explain why precious and industrial metals are rising in unison — and why the rally may not be over yet.

Why gold prices are hitting record highs in 2025

Gold’s rally is rooted in macroeconomic stress and policy shifts. The metal briefly touched $4,525 per ounce, a fresh all-time high, before consolidating near current levels. Monthly gains are nearing 9%, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in 2026.

Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no yield. At the same time, inflation concerns and rising government debt are fueling what traders call the “debasement trade.” A weaker U.S. Dollar has made gold cheaper for overseas buyers, amplifying global demand.

Central banks are another powerful force. Many have accelerated gold purchases to diversify reserves and hedge against financial instability. Analysts now project gold could dip modestly toward $4,350 near quarter-end before climbing toward $4,600 over the next 12 months, supported by sustained official-sector buying.

Why silver is outperforming gold this year

Silver’s surge is even more dramatic. Prices briefly topped $72.70 per ounce, and despite minor pullbacks, the metal remains up over 140% in 2025. Unlike gold, silver plays a dual role as both a safe-haven asset and a critical industrial material.

Demand from solar panel manufacturing, electric vehicles, and data centers has exploded. Each new energy or AI project consumes silver permanently, tightening supply. Monthly gains near 40% reflect how quickly inventories are being absorbed. With silver now classified as a strategic and critical mineral in several countries, analysts see prices holding above $70 into 2026, with forecasts pushing toward the mid-$70s.

Why copper demand is exploding from EVs, AI, and infrastructure

Copper’s rally tells the story of the energy transition. Prices are approaching $12,000 per metric ton, driven by soaring demand from electric vehicles, artificial intelligence data centers, and power grid expansion. A single electric vehicle can use up to four times more copper than a traditional gasoline car.

According to Goldman Sachs, grid expansion and power infrastructure could account for more than 60% of copper demand growth by 2030. Supply, however, is struggling to keep pace. Mining disruptions in Chile and Peru have constrained output, while new projects face long approval timelines.

Adding to the pressure, U.S. trade policy has reshaped the market. A 50% tariff on imported copper products triggered stockpiling and hoarding. J.P. Morgan expects tight supply conditions to persist well into 2026.

What futures markets are signaling about metals prices next

Looking ahead to 2026, analysts broadly expect gold, silver, and copper prices to stay elevated, with volatility driven by interest rates, global growth, and supply constraints. Forecasts suggest the metals rally is shifting from a momentum-driven surge to a structurally supported cycle. Gold price forecast for 2026
Gold is expected to remain well above historical averages. Most bank and commodities desk models see gold trading in a $4,300–$4,900 per ounce range through 2026. Central bank buying remains the anchor. If the Federal Reserve begins rate cuts, real yields could fall further, supporting upside risk toward the upper end of forecasts. Downside risk appears limited unless inflation cools sharply and the dollar strengthens materially.

Silver price forecast for 2026
Silver forecasts are more aggressive due to tight supply and industrial demand. Analysts project an average range of $68–$78 per ounce, with volatility likely. Solar installations, EV production, and data center expansion continue to absorb supply faster than mining output grows. Silver’s dual role as an investment metal and industrial input keeps it highly sensitive to both rate policy and global manufacturing trends.

Copper price forecast for 2026
Copper outlooks remain bullish but uneven. Consensus estimates place copper between $5.40 and $6.10 per pound, with some upside scenarios tied to grid expansion and AI infrastructure. Electric vehicles, renewable energy, and transmission upgrades drive demand, while mine supply growth remains constrained. Trade barriers and inventory rebuilding could keep prices near cycle highs.

Gold is expected to stabilize at historically high levels. Silver may remain the most volatile, with sharp rallies on demand shocks. Copper prices are likely to stay supported by long-term electrification trends. Together, forecasts suggest metals will remain a key inflation and growth hedge throughout 2026, rather than reverting to pre-2024 norms.

Copper price activated with the main indicators again, surpassing the barrier at $5.5000, announcing its readiness to achieve extra gains on a near-term basis, therefore, we will keep our bullish expectations, reminding you that the extra target near $5.6300 and $5.7400 level.

 

Note that the price stability below the current barrier might force it to form mixed trading, and there is a chance of testing the support at $5.1500.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $5.3900 and $5.6300

 

Trend forecast: Bullish