Bullish pressure wanes ahead of US PMI data
EUR/USD reversed its direction following a bearish opening to the week and closed in positive territory on Monday. The pair stays in a consolidation phase below 1.1600 on Tuesday as investors await Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from the US, while keeping a close eye on headlines coming out of the Middle East.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.28% | 0.36% | 0.19% | 0.17% | 0.80% | 0.71% | 0.14% | |
| EUR | -0.28% | 0.05% | -0.07% | -0.11% | 0.50% | 0.42% | -0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.36% | -0.05% | -0.13% | -0.16% | 0.45% | 0.38% | -0.19% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | 0.07% | 0.13% | -0.01% | 0.60% | 0.51% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.17% | 0.11% | 0.16% | 0.01% | 0.61% | 0.52% | -0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.80% | -0.50% | -0.45% | -0.60% | -0.61% | -0.08% | -0.67% | |
| NZD | -0.71% | -0.42% | -0.38% | -0.51% | -0.52% | 0.08% | -0.56% | |
| CHF | -0.14% | 0.14% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.67% | 0.56% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Improving risk mood weighed on the US Dollar (USD) on Monday and helped EUR/USD gather bullish momentum after US President Donald Trump announced that they will postpone any military strikes against Iran’s power plants following “good and productive conversations.”
However, contradicting remarks from the Iranian side caused markets to turn cautious. Iran’s foreign ministry said that there was “no dialogue” between Tehran and Washington, while the White House acknowledged that the situation was “fluid” and added that “speculation about meetings should not be deemed as final until they are formally announced by the White House.” Highlighting the negative shift in risk mood, US stock index futures were last seen losing about 0.3% on the day.
On Tuesday, the data from Germany showed that the Composite PMI declined to 51.9 in March’s flash estimate from 53.2 in February, reflecting a loss of growth momentum in the private sector’s business activity. Similarly, the Composite PMI for the Eurozone fell to 50.5 from 51.9 in this period.
Assessing the sruvey’s findings, “the flash Eurozone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as the war in the Middle East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Later in the day, the details of the US PMI surveys will be scrutinized by market participants. In case the publication highlights rising input costs because of high energy prices, the immediate reaction could support the USD and force EUR/USD to stay on the back foot.
Conversely, EUR/USD could turn north again, if risk flows return to markets, with Iran and US officially confirming ongoing negotiations to end the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1582. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the pair holds above the rising 20-period and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), while remaining close to the 100-period SMA. Bollinger Bands have started to contracting as the price is retreating toward the mid-line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the mid-50s, consistent with a bullish outlook that lacks momentum.
Immediate support sits at 1.1570 (100-period SMA), ahead of 1.1530-1.1520 (static level, 50-period SMA) and 1.1500 (static level, round level). On the upside, resistance is located near 1.1640, which coincides with the upper Bollinger Band, before 1.1670 (static level) and 1.1700 (200-period SMA).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
