Next Target is 2.52

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.52 was easily exceeded today putting natural gas in line to test resistance around 50% retracement at 2.615. That price area is strengthened by the 20-Day MA (purple), which is currently showing the same price level. The 20-Day line reflected support of the prior uptrend following the September 3 upside breakout of the line. It failed to maintain support once the price of natural gas closed below it on October 11. Now, it presents a potential area of resistance. Plus, once the 50-Day MA is cleared, as occurred today, the next moving average in the sequence becomes an upside target.

61.8% Fibonacci Retracement at 2.71 Looks Likely

Nonetheless, since this week’s swing low was higher than the previous swing low, the current advance has the potential to eventually exceed the 50% retracement and target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2.71. An unfilled gap begins at 2.66 and goes to 2.72, filling right around the Fibonacci level. The top down trendline was successfully tested as resistance during the formation of the recent 3.02 swing high. That was essentially the third touch of the top trendline following the beginning of the line starting from the October 2023 peak. This identifies the line as solid resistance and indicates the potential for a sharp rally if it is exceeded to the upside.

Trendlines Mark Near-term Boundaries

Current price action is proceeding between two trendlines, resistance at the top and support at a new internal rising trendline connecting the August swing low with this week’s swing low. The intersection of the lines can tell us something about timing as they cross January 3, 2025. A vertical dotted line has been placed at the intersection. One of the two lines will be broken before then and that should tell us something about the strength or weakness of natural gas.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Experts predict that on October 25, 10, coffee prices in the domestic market are expected to continue to increase in many localities, especially in the Central Highlands.

The strong USD has pushed down the prices of gold and crude oil. However, coffee has recovered after falling too much in the previous days. The market has seen resistance as new crop supplies from Vietnam have not yet joined the transaction.

Dealers said foreign demand for Vietnamese coffee is declining, as many countries have secured coffee supplies from other sources, especially as the EU’s deforestation regulation is expected to take effect by the end of 2024, a delay from the original plan.

Speculators are also reducing net long positions ahead of the harvest in the top robusta producing nation. world, which is expected to ramp up sales next month. The European Union’s (EU) delay in implementing its anti-deforestation law, the EUDR, has reduced the urgency for new deals, further dampening the market.

According to experts, in the world market, Arabica coffee prices are likely to recover strongly, while Robusta tends to continue to fluctuate.

Recorded in the trading session on October 24, 10, domestic coffee prices today decreased sharply by 2024 – 1.600 VND/kg, ranging from 1.900 – 109.400 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 109.700 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong 109.700 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai (Chu Prong) is 109.600 VND, down 1.800 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 109.500 VND/kg; In the province Kon Tum at the price of 109.600 VND/kg, down 1.800 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee was purchased at the highest price of 109.700 VND/kg, down 1.900 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 109.400 VND/kg, down 1.600 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (April 24) in the province Dak LakIn Cu M’gar district, coffee was purchased at about 109.600 VND/kg, down 1.800 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district and Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same price of 109.700 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on September 24, 10, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 11 USD/ton, down 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee prices today, July 24, 10: Robusta coffee prices on the London floor. (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com

Delivery term in November 1 is 2025 USD/ton, down 4.425 USD; Delivery term in January 78 is 3 USD/ton, down 2025 USD and delivery term in March 4.335 is 70 USD/ton, down 5 USD.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor on October 24, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 p.m. on September 24, 10 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 242.55 cents/lb.

Specifically, the delivery term in December 12 is 2024 cents/lb; down 247.65 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. March 4.70 delivery is 3 cents/lb, down 2025 cents/lb; Delivery period in May 246.50 is 4.55 cents/lb, down 5 cents/lb and delivery period in July 2025 is 245.00 cents/lb, down 4.55 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee price on October 24, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on October 24, 10 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, down 2024%; the delivery period for March 301.65 is 0.66 USD/ton, down 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 302.15 USD/ton, up 0.80% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, up 305.90%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

The 2023-2024 crop year ended with a supply-demand balance tilted towards a surplus of 1 million bags. However, the 2024-2025 coffee output is forecast to be heavily impacted by extreme weather factors. Therefore, coffee prices in the third quarter are expected to remain high, double that of the same period last year.

Industry insiders believe that coffee prices in the fourth quarter may be adjusted down due to additional supply from major coffee growing countries, including Vietnam.

*Information is for reference only, prices may vary depending on region and locality

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecast for both 2024 and 2025.

According to that STEO, the EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $76.91 per barrel this year and $73.13 per barrel in 2025. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in September, projected that the WTI spot price would average $78.80 per barrel in 2024 and $79.63 per barrel in 2025. Both STEOs put the 2023 WTI spot price average at $77.58 per barrel.

In its latest STEO, the EIA forecast that the WTI spot price would come in at $71.97 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $73.67 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $74.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $73.17 per barrel in the third quarter, and $71.22 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

The EIA’s September STEO projected that the WTI spot price would average $77.64 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $79.02 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $80.50 per barrel across the second and third quarters of next year, and $78.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025.

A report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Head of Commodities Research Paul Horsnell late Tuesday revealed that the company is projecting that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $84 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $86 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $89 per barrel in the second quarter, $92 per barrel in the third quarter, and $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team last week showed that J.P. Morgan expects the WTI crude price to average $76 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $78 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, and $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

Executives from oil and gas firms revealed where they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at various points in the future as part of the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

The average response executives from 134 oil and gas firms gave when asked what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of 2024 was $72.66 per barrel, the survey showed. When asked where they expect WTI prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years, executives from 119 oil and gas firms gave a mean response of $73 per barrel for the six month mark, $76 per barrel for the year mark, $81 per barrel for the two year mark, and $87 per barrel for the five year mark, the survey outlined.

In a technical analysis of WTI prices sent to Rigzone on Wednesday, Rania Gule, a senior market analyst at XS.com, said, “from a technical perspective, crude oil prices are facing increasing pressures as markets shake off the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East and supply appears to be abundant”.

“To regain momentum, the price needs to surpass the pivotal level at $71.50 with a daily close, which would provide an opportunity to test the level of $75.13, a significant hurdle,” Gule added.

“On the downside, the support level at $67.12 should be monitored; if it is breached, the market could decline to the lowest level of 2024 at $64.75, followed by $64.38,” Gule warned.

In the analysis, Gule stated that, currently, the oil market is undergoing a sideways consolidation phase between $78.00 and $64.00, with the overall outlook leaning towards a neutral to bearish sentiment.

“Momentum indicators suggest a near-term corrective upward move that could reach $75.00 and $78.00 in the medium term, although the price remains below the 200-day simple moving average at $75.37,” Gule added.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com