Platinum price seasonality has outspoken cycles and dynamics. These 5 platinum seasonality charts learn that March/April as well as December are consistently strong months. Will 2024 show a year-end really consistent with previous years? There is one concern in 2024…

RELATED – A Platinum Price Prediction For 2025

By analyzing historical data and recent performance, one can identify key months for potential gains and periods where caution is warranted.

In this article, we analyze the seasonality of platinum prices using several charts that cover different time frames, from the long-term 50-year trends to the recent years.

Additionally, we compare platinum’s seasonality with silver to provide a broader context for precious metals investors.

Platinum price seasonality: a 50-year chart

The 50-year platinum price seasonality chart provides an extensive historical perspective, highlighting average price trends throughout the year.

• Strong early year performance: The data shows a strong rise in platinum prices from January to around late February or early March, suggesting that this period often sees increased demand or favorable market conditions.
• Mid-year weakness: A decline is evident from March onward, reaching its lowest point around mid-year (June to July). This suggests a typical correction or reduced demand during this period.
• Late year rally: From July onwards, prices generally recover, peaking around September and fluctuating but remaining relatively strong through the end of the year.

Revealed insights: The long-term seasonality suggests two main periods for potential gains—early in the year (January to March) and later in the year (July to September). The mid-year period often indicates caution or consolidation.

This chart compares the 50-year average seasonality with the specific performance of platinum in 2024.

• Early year divergence: In 2024, platinum experienced a significant dip in January and February, a notable divergence from the 50-year average that typically shows strength in these months. This deviation may signal caution for a bullish trend in early 2025.
• Consistency later in the year: The rest of 2024 aligns more closely with the 50-year trend, with a recovery starting in mid-year and continuing through the end of the year.
• Potential bearish signal: The early-year dip in 2024 suggests that platinum might not be ready to enter a bullish phase in the short term, potentially extending this outlook into early 2025.

Revealed Insights: The sharp divergence early in 2024 highlights potential market-specific factors affecting platinum prices, diverging from historical trends. This requires investors to be cautious about relying solely on seasonality for early 2025 predictions.

Platinum price seasonality since 2020

This chart illustrates platinum’s monthly performance from 2020 to 2024, showing the percentage of months when platinum closed higher than it opened.

• Consistent peaks in March/April and December: The chart indicates consistent peaks in March/April and December, suggesting strong seasonality for these months.
• Weaker performance in mid-year: The middle months do not show significant strength, indicating potential periods of consolidation or reduced activity.

Revealed insights: The recent 4-year period confirms strong performance in March/April and December. These months could present reliable opportunities for gains, aligning partially with the long-term trends and highlighting their importance for traders.

Platinum price seasonality since 2005

Covering the 19-year period from 2005 to 2024, this chart provides a longer-term perspective on platinum’s seasonality.

• Good months – January, April, October, and December: These months show consistent positive returns, suggesting they are strong periods for platinum investment.
• Variable performance in other months: Other months, like June and July, have more mixed results, reflecting variability and a need for careful market analysis.

Revealed Insights: The extended period from 2005 to 2024 aligns with some of the 50-year trends but shows more variability. This underlines the importance of focusing on strong months (January, April, October, December) for potential gains while being cautious during mid-year months.

Platinum price seasonality – comparative insights

Performance Shifts in Key Months

• January and February divergence in 2024: The significant divergence in January and February 2024, with a steep dip, suggests a departure from the long-term trend of early-year strength. This anomaly may signal caution for investors looking for bullish trends in early 2025.
• Consistent strong months – March/April and December: The strong months across the 2020-2024 and 2005-2024 periods, particularly March/April and December, align with the long-term trends, highlighting their reliability for positive returns.

Mid-Year Weakness Consistency

• Weak performance in June and July across periods: All periods, from the 50-year to the 2005-2024 and 2020-2024 data, show a consistent weakness in June and July. This suggests seasonal factors like reduced demand or market corrections affect platinum during these months.

Strong Late-Year Performance in 2024

• Late 2024 consistency with long-term trends: While early 2024 diverged from historical patterns, platinum’s performance from mid-year onward was consistent with the 50-year average. This suggests that the market may stabilize and follow traditional trends later in the year, even when there are anomalies earlier.

Platinum and silver price seasonality compared

In this section, we compare the insights we derived from our silver price seasonality with the ones in this article related to platinum price seasonality.

Early and late-year strength: Both platinum and silver show strong seasonality early (January to March for platinum, January to February for silver) and late in the year (September to December). These similarities suggest both metals may be influenced by common seasonal demand factors.

Mid-year weakness: Both metals exhibit weakness mid-year (June to July for platinum, June for silver), indicating a consistent seasonal pattern.

Divergence in recent years: Platinum’s early-year weakness in 2024 contrasts with silver, which did not show a sharp divergence. This could imply that platinum is currently more sensitive to specific market conditions or economic factors compared to silver.

Conclusion

There are 3 conclusions that we take away from the platinum seasonality charts:

1. Emerging trends: The early 2024 divergence highlights the need for caution, as platinum might not follow traditional seasonality trends. Current market conditions, such as economic factors, supply chain disruptions, and investor sentiment, heavily influence its performance.
2. Consistency in strong months: March/April and December show consistent strength across different periods, providing reliable opportunities for gains. However, caution is advised during mid-year months like June and July.
3. Comparative insights with silver: While both metals share common seasonality traits, platinum’s sensitivity to recent market dynamics suggests that platinum investors might need to wait for silver’s outperformance before getting too excited about platinum’s prospects.

By understanding these seasonality conclusions, platinum investors can better handle the platinum market.

• Gold price keeps the red near $2,650 at the start of a new week on Monday.    
• The US Dollar retreats from seven-week highs amid softer Treasury yields, positive risk tone.      
• Gold price outlook remains constructive so long as the key $2,630 support holds.  

Gold price is in the red at the start of a new week on Monday but stays within a familiar range at around $2,650. Amidst the persistent Middle East geopolitical escalation, Gold price now shifts its attention to speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers on Monday, anticipating the critical US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data later in the week.  

Gold price suffers in the US NFP aftermath

Gold price fails to benefit from a US Dollar (USD) pullback from seven-week highs against its major rivals. Risk flows remain in vogue on expectations of more stimulus coming through from China, as traders return after a week-long holiday break. The extended risk appetite into Asia weighs on the safe-haven assets such as the Gold price, the US Dollar, US government bonds etc.

Softer US Treasury bond yields also add to the weight on the Greenback, unable to motivate Gold buyers, as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the Chinese central bank, reported no Gold reserves purchases for the fifth straight month in September on Monday. China is the world’s top Gold consumer.

The main catalyst behind the softer undertone in Gold price so far this month is the fading expectations of a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed next month. This less dovish turn in sentiment surrounding the Fed was accentuated after Friday’s blockbuster Nonfarm Payrolls data, which totally ruled out an outsized Fed rate cut probability for November.

Data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday showed that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 254,000 in September after gaining 159,000 (revised from 142,000) in August. The reading outpaced the market expectation of 140,000 by a wide margin. The annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, edged a tad higher to 4% from 3.9% in August.

Markets are currently pricing in about a 94% chance that the Fed will opt for a 25 bps rate cut at its next meeting, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows, with a 6% probability of a no rate change decision.

However, Gold price has managed to keep its corrective downside restricted, thanks to the persistent geopolitical risks emanating from the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. On Sunday evening, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it struck multiple Hezbollah targets in Beirut, including Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters. In retaliation, Hezbollah said it also launched a barrage of rockets at northern Israel Sunday night.

Mounting fears of the Israel-Iran conflict turning into a wider regional war in the Middle East remain a cause for concern for global markets. Gold traders, therefore, look forward to upcoming Fedspeak for further trading impetus in the lead-up to the main event risk for this week – the US consumer inflation data for September.  

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Despite the sluggish Gold price action recently, buyers refuse to give up as long as the static support of $2,630 holds the fort.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) also stays well above the midline, currently near 64, backing the bullish potential.

Gold price, however, needs a daily candlestick closing above the strong resistance near $2,670 to revive the uptrend.

The next resistance is aligned at the record high of $2,686. Further up, buyers will target the $2,700 round level.

On the flip side, acceptance below the intermittent low near $2,630 is critical to unleashing further downside toward the $2,600 threshold.

Ahead of that level, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,609 will test bullish commitments.

• Gold lost its bullish momentum after setting a new record high in the previous week.
• The technical outlook suggests that sellers remain on the sidelines.
• Investors will keep a close eye on geopolitics and US inflation data next week.

Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to make a decisive move in either direction this week as the broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength offset the increasing safe-haven demand for the precious metal. Developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East and US inflation data could drive XAU/USD’s action next week.

Gold ignores renewed USD strength

Gold started the new week under bearish pressure and lost nearly 1% on Monday. While speaking at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell refrained from providing any fresh hints regarding the next policy step. Powell reiterated that risks are two-sided and that they will take policy decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. “The Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates quickly, will be guided by data,” he added. These comments allowed the USD to hold its ground and forced XAU/USD to stay on the back foot.

Although the USD preserved its strength on Tuesday after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the JOLTS Job Openings rose to 8.04 million in August from 7.71 million in July, Gold benefited from escalating geopolitical tensions and gained over 1% to erase all of Monday’s losses. Reports of the Israeli army mounting a ground invasion of Lebanon revived fears over a deepening and widening conflict in the Middle East. 

Early Wednesday, news of Iran firing about 200 ballistic missiles on Israel and Israel vowing to retaliate against the attack helped Gold find demand. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran had made a “big mistake” and “will pay,” further escalating tensions. As the USD recovery picked up steam in the second half of the day, however, XAU/USD struggled to gather bullish momentum and closed the day little changed. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that employment in the private sector rose by 143,000 in September, surpassing the market expectation of 120,000 and supporting the USD.

The data published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Thursday that the business activity in the service sector continued to expand at an accelerating pace in September, with the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improving to 54.9 from 51.5 in August. The USD capitalized on this report and made it difficult for Gold to rebound.

On Friday, the BLS announced that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 254,000 in September, surpassing the market expectation of 140,000 by a wide margin. Additionally, August’s NFP growth of 142,000 was revised higher to 159,000. Other details of the employment report showed that the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.1%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, ticked up to 4% from 3.9% in August. Gold failed to stage a rebound after upbeat US labor market data.

Gold investors stay focused on geopolitics, await US inflation data

The US economic calendar will not offer any high-tier macroeconomic data releases in the first half of next week. On Wednesday, The Fed will release the minutes of the September policy meeting.

Investors will scrutinize the discussions surrounding the decision to lower the policy rate by 50 basis points (bps). In case the publication reveals that policymakers preferred a large reduction in the interest rate as a first step to a gradual policy-easing, rather than as a response to growing signs of cooling conditions in the labor market, the immediate reaction could boost the USD. The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are still pricing in a more than 30% probability that the Fed will opt for one more 50 bps cut at the next policy meeting in November, suggesting that the USD has more room on the upside if investors lean toward a 25 bps cut.

On the flip side, the USD could come under pressure and allow Gold to turn north if the minutes reflect that policymakers will keep an open mind about additional big rate cuts in case data points to an economic downturn or a worsening labor market outlook.

On Thursday, the BLS will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September. The monthly core CPI reading, which excludes prices of volatile items and is not distorted by base effect, could trigger a reaction in Gold. Markets expect the core CPI to rise 0.2% in September, following the 0.3% increase recorded in August. A reading of 0.2%, or smaller, could weigh on the USD. While an increase of 0.5% or more could cause investors to doubt the disinflation process and lift the USD, causing XAU/USD to turn south.

Market participants will also pay close attention to headlines coming out of the Middle East. If the crisis deepens with Israel retaliating against Iran and Iran not taking a step back, Gold could continue to take advantage of the safe-haven demand.

Gold technical outlook

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart retreated slightly below 70, reflecting sellers’ reluctance to bet on an extended decline. On the downside, the mid-point of the ascending regression channel coming from late June forms first support at $2,640. In case this level fails, the next support could be seen at $2,605-$2,600 (20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), static level) before $2,575 (lower limit of the ascending channel).

Looking north, interim resistance seems to have formed at $2,675 (static level) ahead of $2,700-$2,705 (round level, upper limit of the ascending channel).