The British pound has initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session here on Thursday but gave back gains and we are now well below the 1.35 level.
The 1.35 level is an area that has been important and I think the 1.35 level is an area that will continue to attract a lot of attention.
Keep in mind that the British pound is falling for a whole host of reasons, not the least of which is that the Bank of England held rates last meeting, but they also had a 5 to 4 vote split revealing a growing faction favoring immediate cuts. This is compounded by recent data suggesting that UK employment is at roughly 5.2%, which is a 5-year high and now markets have priced in a 75% chance of a rate cut in March. This is the biggest issue that the pair is facing at the moment.
Central Bank Divergence and Technical Outlook
By contrast, you have the Federal Reserve in a wait-and-see mode, and I think that makes the US dollar a little bit more hawkish. Plus, the US dollar shorts had gotten so overdone that it makes a certain amount of sense that the overextension of short positions needs to be wound down against any signs of weakness as we have here.
I do think we will probably go looking to the 200-day EMA next, which is the 1.3350 level. Short-term rallies should end up being selling opportunities at the first signs of exhaustion. This will continue to be the way going forward as far as I can see at the moment.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Gold sticks to recent gains around the $5,000-mark early Friday, biding time before the high-impact US macro events. The focus is now on the US fourth-quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Supreme Court’s ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Gold: All eyes on US data dump
Gold continues its struggle to extend the recovery from near the $4,850 region for the third straight day as persistent US Dollar (USD) strength outweighs safe-haven demand for the yellow metal amid looming geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.
The Greenback is in a bullish consolidative phase, courtesy of the hawkish Minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) January monetary policy meeting and a recent slew of upbeat economic data.
Data published by the Labor Department on Thursday showed that the US Initial Jobless Claims declined by 23,000 to 206,000 in the week ended February 14. The data fell by the most since November, adding to evidence of stabilization in the US labor market.
Meanwhile, the Minutes on Wednesday suggested that the Fed remains in no rush to cut interest rates.
Additionally, concerns surrounding the disruptions led by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the disappointing earnings report from Walmart tempered the recent market optimism, boosting the USD’s appeal as a safety net.
However, Gold continues to find a floor amid renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, while untouched bets for three 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cuts this year also remain supportive of the non-yielding bullion.
After CBS News reported that a potential US military strike on Iran could come as early as Saturday, Trump warned late Thursday that Iran must make a deal, or “bad things will happen,” with the threat of military strikes still hanging heavy over delicate nuclear negotiations, per BBC News. In response, Iran threatened a decisive response if attacked,
With geopolitical risks in play, the next big catalysts for Gold are the US GDP, PCE inflation and Supreme Court’s verdict on Trump’s tariffs.
Also, of note will be the global business PMI data, which significantly impact the broader market sentiment.
The US economy is expected to expand by 3% on an annualized basis in Q4 2025, against a 4.4% growth reported in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to rise by 2.9% in December after increasing by 2.8% in November.
The US data points will be crucial to reset the market’s pricing of the Fed rate cut bets, heavily influencing the USD’s performance and eventually the Gold price direction.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rises to $5,006.49 and caps the immediate recovery, while price holds above the ascending 50-day SMA at $4,703.94. The 100- and 200-day SMAs also climb and sit well below spot, reinforcing a broader bullish bias despite near-term hesitation. The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 54 (neutral), indicating momentum has cooled but remains slightly positive. Measured from the $5,597.89 high to the $4,401.99 low, the 50% Fibonacci (Fibo) Retracement at $4,999.94 acts as nearby resistance, with the 61.8% Fibo retracement at $5,141.05 overhead; a daily close above these hurdles could extend the advance.
Failure to reclaim the short-term average would keep price contained beneath the 21-day SMA, leaving pullbacks to lean on dynamic trend support from the rising 50-day average around $4,700, where the 23.6% Fibo Retracement also lingers. A deeper setback would bring the 100-day SMA at $4,405.36 into view, while the 200-day SMA at $3,915.63 anchors the longer-term uptrend. Conversely, a decisive push back above the 21-day SMA would refocus upside momentum toward higher Fibonacci barriers and preserve the broader bullish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product Annualized
The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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Natural gas price surrendered to the main indicators negativity by providing new bearish pressures on the bullish channel’s support at $3.000 level as appears in the above image, the attempt of 3.520 level to form extra barrier might increase the chances of surrendering to the negative pressures, by breaking the current support, to confirm its move to bearish track by targeting several negative stations that might begin at $2.850 and $2.660.
We notice the continuation of stochastic fluctuation near 20 level, to increase the chances of gathering the required negative momentum to achieve the break then begin targeting the previously suggested negative stations.
The expected trading range for today is between $2.850 and $3.180
Following Wednesday’s sharp decline, EUR/USD continued to edge lower and closed in negative territory on Thursday. The pair stays on the back foot early Friday and trades slightly above 1.1750.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.98%
1.41%
1.63%
0.60%
0.36%
1.36%
0.93%
EUR
-0.98%
0.43%
0.64%
-0.38%
-0.63%
0.37%
-0.05%
GBP
-1.41%
-0.43%
-0.04%
-0.80%
-1.05%
-0.05%
-0.47%
JPY
-1.63%
-0.64%
0.04%
-1.01%
-1.23%
-0.26%
-0.65%
CAD
-0.60%
0.38%
0.80%
1.01%
-0.28%
0.76%
0.33%
AUD
-0.36%
0.63%
1.05%
1.23%
0.28%
1.01%
0.61%
NZD
-1.36%
-0.37%
0.05%
0.26%
-0.76%
-1.01%
-0.42%
CHF
-0.93%
0.05%
0.47%
0.65%
-0.33%
-0.61%
0.42%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) preserved its strength after Wednesday’s impressive rallly that was fuelled by the hawkish tone seen in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes of the January policy meeting. Additionally, the risk-averse market atmosphere helped the USD outperform its rivals as investors reacted to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with reports suggesting that the US could take military action against Iran as early as this weekend.
BBC reported late Thursday that US President Donald Trump said that Iran must make a deal, or “bad things will happen.” Iran told UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that it does not seek war but said that they will not tolerate military aggression. Moreover, Iranian officials reportedly also warned of a decisive response if the US takes military action over the nuclear dispute.
Later in the European session, HCOB Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports from Germany and the Eurozone will be watched closely by market participants. In case PMI figures come in above 50 and reflect ongoing expansion in the private sector’s business activity, the Euro could keep its footing and allow EUR/USD to find support.
In the American trading hours, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its first estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the fourth quarter. Investors expect the US’ GDP to grow at an annural rate 3% in Q4, following the impressive 4.4% growth recorded in Q3. A positive surprise could support the USD and force EUR/USD to extend its weekly slide. Conversely, a disappointing print, at or below 2%, could open the door for a rebound in the pair heading into the weekend.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1761. The 20-, 50-, and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) slope lower and sit above price, underscoring persistent selling pressure. The 200-period SMA edges higher but remains overhead, acting as initial resistance at 1.1782. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays near 30 (oversold), suggesting that there could be a correction before the resumption of the downtrend.
Measured from the 1.1590 low to the 1.2026 high, the 61.8% retracement aligns as a key technical level at 1.1757. A close beneath would expose the 78.6% retracement at 1.1683 ahead of 1.1600 (static level, round level). On the upside, . The descending trend line from 1.2023 caps rebounds, with resistance seen near 1.1840, and failure to reclaim that barrier would keep rallies short-lived.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Platinum price began receiving bullish momentum due to stochastic rally above 50 level, accompanied by the moving average 55 attempt to form extra support by its stability below the current trading, to begin forming bullish waves and settle near $2090.00.
The attempt of forming extra support at $2020.00 level reinforces the chances of renewing the bullish attempts, to keep our bullish scenario that might target $2165.00 level soon, reaching near $2245.00 barrier.
The expected trading range for today is between $2020.00 and $2165.00
The GBPJPY pair failed to settle above 209.15 barrier, providing mixed trading due to the contradiction between the negative stability and providing bullish momentum by the main indicators, to settle near 208.65.
We expect the trading within tight path that is represented by 209.15 barrier, while 208.20 forms extra support against the current trading, we recommend monitoring the price behavior and waiting for surpassing one of these levels, to detect the main trend in the upcoming trading. Where confirming the breaching will open the way for recording clear gains that might begin at 210.65 and 211.70, while breaking the support and holding below it will force it suffer extra losses that might extend towards 207.05.
The expected trading range for today is between 208.20 and 209.15
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on its gains registered over the past two days and oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Friday. The white metal currently trades around the $78.25-$78.30 region, nearly unchanged for the day, and remains close to a one-week high, touched on Thursday.
From a technical perspective, this week’s breakout through a one-week-old ascending trend-channel resistance, which coincided with the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), was seen as a key trigger for the XAG/USD bulls. The 100-hour SMA has flattened around $76.32 after a modest rise, and spot prices hold above it to preserve an intraday bullish bias.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits marginally below the Signal line near the zero mark, with a slightly negative histogram that points to subdued momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55, neutral with a mild upward tilt. Moreover, acceptance above the 100-period SMA underpins the breakout structure.
A turn of the MACD histogram back to positive would reinforce upside follow-through. A firming RSI above 60 would signal strengthening momentum, while a drop beneath 50 would warn of fading impetus. The former descending channel hurdle at $75.58 could act as initial support on pullbacks, while deeper protection aligns with the channel floor near $70.31.
Absent fresh momentum, the XAG/USD could consolidate, but maintaining levels above the moving average would keep the near-term bias upward.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The GBPJPY pair failed to settle above 209.15 barrier, providing mixed trading due to the contradiction between the negative stability and providing bullish momentum by the main indicators, to settle near 208.65.
We expect the trading within tight path that is represented by 209.15 barrier, while 208.20 forms extra support against the current trading, we recommend monitoring the price behavior and waiting for surpassing one of these levels, to detect the main trend in the upcoming trading. Where confirming the breaching will open the way for recording clear gains that might begin at 210.65 and 211.70, while breaking the support and holding below it will force it suffer extra losses that might extend towards 207.05.
The expected trading range for today is between 208.20 and 209.15
Upbeat United States employment figures boosted demand for the Greenback.
The US macroeconomic calendar includes first-tier data on Friday.
XAU/USD extends its consolidative phase around $5,000 with a bearish tilt.
Gold price remains stuck around the $5,000 mark, unable to attract investors despite the market’s mood swings. The bright metal remains afloat despite the US Dollar (USD) strength following hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, showing that, in the January meeting, officials noted that “a two-way description of the path of policy could be supported,” hinting at opening for interest rate hikes, should inflation keep pressing higher.
The Greenback gained additional strength early in the American session on Thursday, following the release of upbeat employment-related data: Initial Jobless Claims rose by 206K in the week ended February 14, much better than the expected 225K. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey improved to 16.3 in February ,much better than the 8.5 posted in the previous month. On a negative note, the Goods and Services Trade Balance posted a deficit of $70.3 billion in December, worsening from the $-53 billion posted in November.
Market participants are now waiting for Friday’s data, as the United States (US) will publish the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s favorite inflation gauge. The core annual figure is foreseen at 2.9% after posting 2.8% in November, moving further away from the Fed’s goal of 2%.
The US will also publish the preliminary estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with annualized growth foreseen at 3%, down from the 4.4% posted in Q3. Finally, S&P Global will release the flash estimates of the February Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs).
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD is neutral, with a modest negative tilt. The pair keeps trading between a flat 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing support at $4,954 and a directionless 100 SMA capping the upside at around the current level. The 200-period SMA, in the meantime, maintains its bullish slope at around $4,860. Meanwhile, technical indicators turned modestly lower but remain just above their midlines.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades just below a mildly bullish 20-day SMA at $5,006.86, while the longer moving averages remain well below the current level, heading firmly north. The Momentum indicator turned higher and advances above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads nowhere at around 54. A daily close above the 20-day SMA would refocus upside pressure and expose the $5,030 price zone, while failure to hold above the $4,950 should open the door for a steeper decline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
