Cardano price has slipped into a key long-term support zone, drawing attention as participants assess whether this deep pullback sets the stage for its next major recovery move.

Cardano price has dropped into fresh 90-day lows, and the market is finally starting to treat this move as a full capitulation phase. What makes this moment interesting is that these deep pullbacks have historically marked the same zones where Cardano begins building its strongest recoveries. With sentiment washed out and positioning heavily reset, ADA is entering one of those rare periods where long-term opportunity and short-term pressure are converging.

Cardano price is trading around $0.48, up 2.87% in the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin

Sentiment Reset as ADA Hits 90-Day Lows

Market sentiment around ADA has slipped into full capitulation territory, with price sitting at fresh 90-day lows while Alex expresses clear despair. These conditions often appear late in a downtrend, and historically, ADA has shown its strongest rebounds from similar exhaustion phases. The broader conversation across the ADA community hints that many retail participants have already exited, leaving repositioning opportunities for patient buyers who understand Cardano’s long-cycle behavior.

Cardano price has now slipped into a deep capitulation zone at 90-day lows, a level where past cycles have often sparked sharp recovery phases. Source: Alex via X

The tone across social platforms reflects a classic oversold environment: fear is high, conviction is low, and short-term emotions are overshadowing fundamentals. These phases rarely last long, but they do create conditions where accumulation becomes more favorable for long-term participants.

On-Chain Metrics Place ADA Deep in the Buy Zone

Santiment’s 30-Day MVRV metric shows ADA sliding into the “Extreme Buy Zone,” where previous negative-MVRV stretches have produced outsized recovery moves. The chart highlights that most recent buyers are underwater, a typical bottom-building condition where selling pressure becomes depleted. Historically, when ADA enters this area, volatility follows, often to the upside.

ADA’s 30-Day MVRV has dropped into the Extreme Buy Zone, a level that has repeatedly triggered strong rebound phases in past cycles. Source: Coin Bureau via X

This on-chain context reinforces that the current drawdown is less about fundamentals and more about market positioning. As broader altcoins like LINK and ETH also dip into negative MVRV zones, the data suggests a synchronized value pocket forming across major L1 ecosystems, with ADA sitting closer to the deeper end of that zone.

ADA Approaches a Major Long-Term Support Region

TapTools’ chart shows Cardano price pressing into a long-term structural support around $0.45, a level that has historically acted as a cycle reset point. Price is trading below the 25-day and 99-day moving averages, showing clear momentum loss, but the multi-year support band sitting just below current levels has repeatedly produced strong medium-term reactions.

This is the area where long-term participants typically accumulate, especially when confluence aligns across moving averages, volume behavior, and historical trend reversals. If this support does its job again, ADA could stabilize and form a base for its next structural expansion.

ADA is now testing a long-term support band near $0.45, a zone that has repeatedly triggered strong trend resets in previous cycles. Source: TapTools via X

Cardano Price Prediction Points Towards the Next Target

Cardano’s weekly structure, shared in the Smcapitalclub’s chart, reveals a key demand block sitting just beneath current price, aligning perfectly with the long-term accumulation zone. Even if ADA prints a small bounce from here, the macro trend still leans towards a continuation into the lower part of the demand region unless buyers step in aggressively.

ADA’s weekly chart highlights a key demand block pointing towards the $0.36–$0.40 zone, the next major liquidity region on Smcapitalclub’s structure. Source: Smcapitalclub via X

Targets on the chart show the next major level between $0.36 and $0.40, where previous consolidation and liquidity buildup occurred. If Cardano price fully taps that region, it would complete a textbook cycle repetition, creating conditions for a stronger multi-week reversal. This remains the key area to watch for a sustainable trend shift.

Community Voices Push Back Against Selling at Lows

ADA’s community sentiment is beginning to stabilize, while analyst Sssebi warns that selling at these levels historically leads to regret. The chart shows Cardano price grinding down a clean descending structure, but also highlights oversold conditions and weakening downside momentum.

ADA’s community sentiment is stabilizing, with many warning that selling at these oversold levels has historically proven premature. Source: Sssebi via X

The conversation in the community is shifting towards accumulation rather than panic. Long-term stakers and analysts emphasize that Cardano tends to move in sharp cycles; the deepest sell-offs often happen right before trend resets. This aligns with the broader on-chain and technical context, indicating exhaustion rather than a fresh bearish continuation.

Final Thoughts

Cardano price now sits at the intersection of macro support, on-chain value zones, and sentiment capitulation, the same ingredients that shaped previous mid-cycle reversals. ADA charts show room for one more liquidity sweep towards the $0.36–$0.40 zone, but the broader structure looks increasingly mature for a reset.

What matters from here is whether ADA can stabilize, reclaim its short-term moving averages, and rebuild structure in this high-value region. With a negative MVRV flashing opportunity and long-term support approaching, the risk-reward profile strengthens for patient accumulation while volatility remains elevated.

The mix of institutional optimism and market caution has heightened attention among traders, analysts, and long-term holders.

While ETF launches can introduce fresh liquidity, their impact often varies depending on macroeconomic conditions, investor risk appetite, and prior market positioning. Historical cases show that some ETF debuts have caused strong price moves, while others have resulted in muted market reactions, highlighting the need for measured expectations.

Institutional Interest Rises with New XRP ETFs

Several asset managers, including Franklin Templeton and Bitwise, are launching XRP ETFs this week. Franklin Templeton’s ETF, listed under the ticker EZRP, is scheduled to debut on the CBOE on November 18, shortly after Canary Capital’s XRP ETF recorded $58 million in first-day trading volume. Bitwise is planning its second major crypto ETF on November 20, following a successful Solana ETF rollout last month.

Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF (EZRP) goes live on Tuesday, followed by Bitwise on November 20, marking a potentially significant week of institutional liquidity inflows. Source: Diana via X

According to ETF strategists cited on TradingView and market research desks, the presence of established financial brands can attract institutional participation. However, they caution that inflows depend not just on the ETF launch itself but also on broader market sentiment and liquidity conditions.

ETF analysts note that while early inflows are possible, these events do not guarantee sustained upward price movement. ETF launches may catalyze demand, but historical patterns suggest that outcomes can vary depending on macroeconomic conditions and market positioning. Market Sentiment and $2 Support

XRP currently trades around $2.21, only slightly above the psychological $2 support zone. On-chain metrics, such as Glassnode’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), show long-term holders shifting from “belief/denial” to “optimism/anxiety.” NUPL transitions can indicate changes in investor conviction and potential caution before price rallies or corrections, making it a useful tool for gauging market sentiment.

Long-term XRP holders have shifted from euphoria to denial, with growing anxiety as the price teeters near $2. Source: Ali Martinez via X

Social media commentary reflects a spectrum of expectations. For instance, EGRAG Crypto, a technical analyst on X, noted, “XRP could decline slightly before a potential rally, given the current support dynamics,” while trader Javon Marks referenced prior ETF cycles to highlight that structured liquidity inflows could lead to substantial upside—but emphasized that uncertainty remains.

Analysts generally highlight that holding the $2 support level is critical, as a breach could trigger broader short-term downside pressure.

Technical Analysis: Breakout Potential vs. Risks

Technical analysts observing XRP note that the price is forming a bullish pattern within a descending channel, with higher lows supporting potential upward movement. A breakout above $2.195 is often cited as an early confirmation signal for continuation toward $2.24–$2.30, though analysts stress that these projections rely on price respecting lower support bands.

XRP/USDT is holding strong support at 2.10–2.12, with a bullish structure aiming for 2.195–2.330, while maintaining a stop-loss at 2.090. Source: mastercrypto2020 on TradingView

Chart analysts caution that a close below $2.09 would invalidate bullish setups, potentially signaling further downside. Such assessments are derived from standard technical analysis methods, including trendline validation and channel breakout measurements, and should be interpreted alongside broader market context.

Short-Term Volatility and Whale Activity

Recent market data shows short-term anomalies, such as a “flash wick” on Kraken moving XRP/USD briefly from $2.18 to $2.1979. TradingView contributors note that such wicks often reflect isolated liquidity imbalances rather than lasting structural price changes.

XRP remains resilient above $2.10, with ETF launches and technical patterns hinting at a potential bullish breakout. Source: Rocksorgate on TradingView

Additionally, on-chain tracking revealed a $95 million XRP transfer to Binance, which could indicate repositioning by larger holders (“whales”). Analysts caution that while large transfers can precede significant moves, these events are not always predictive and should be viewed in combination with ETF flows, technical levels, and overall market conditions.

Bitcoin’s recent decline (~14% from $115,000 to ~$94,000–$95,000) has added broader market pressure, but XRP has maintained relative resilience above key support levels.

Balancing Opportunity and Caution

Traders, long-term holders, and institutional observers are monitoring several key factors this week:

• ETF inflows: Potentially increasing liquidity, but outcomes vary.

• Support levels: $2 remains a critical threshold; breaches could trigger short-term downside.

• Technical confirmations: Breakouts above $2.195 could suggest upward momentum, but descending-channel dynamics must be respected.

• Market sentiment and on-chain metrics: Tools like NUPL offer insight into long-term holder positioning, but signals are probabilistic, not deterministic.

XRP was trading at around 2.18, up 1.54% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP price via Brave New Coin

While ETF launches provide a catalyst for renewed institutional interest, analysts emphasize balanced expectations. “The market structure is improving, but risks remain—both from macro volatility and the possibility that ETF-driven demand is partially priced in,” noted a senior ETF strategist.

For now, attention centers on EZRP’s debut on November 18 and Bitwise’s follow-up launch, as XRP’s ability to stabilize near $2 will determine whether renewed institutional liquidity translates into meaningful price action.