NEW YORK, Jan 3, 2026, 06:22 ET — Market closed

• U.S. forces struck Venezuela overnight; Trump said President Nicolas Maduro was captured and flown out.
• Brent last settled at $60.75 a barrel and WTI at $57.32, with the market still focused on oversupply.
• Traders next watch Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, U.S. inventory data and the Jan. 9 U.S. jobs report.

U.S. forces struck Venezuela overnight and President Donald Trump said Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife had been captured and flown out of the country. Trump said he would give more details at an 11 a.m. press conference in Florida.  Reuters

For oil traders, the immediate question is whether the fighting disrupts export infrastructure or shipping, not the politics in Caracas. Any sustained outage in Venezuela would matter most to refineries that run its heavy, sulfur-rich crude.

The benchmarks ended Friday little changed: Brent settled at $60.75 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $57.32. Both fell nearly 20% in 2025, and “Oil prices are locked in this long-term trading range,” said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group.  Reuters

Venezuela’s oil flows were already under strain. U.S. sanctions and recent seizures of oil tankers have halved the country’s normal export rate, Reuters reported, though Chevron has continued to export Venezuelan crude under a U.S. license.  Reuters

That backdrop leaves room for a risk premium — an extra price traders pay for disruption risk — when futures reopen. In the base case, prices swing higher early in the week and then settle back if cargoes keep moving and no fresh supply loss emerges.

The upside case is tied to logistics: port closures, power disruptions, or insurers and shipowners avoiding Venezuela. The downside case is familiar — concerns that global supply outpaces demand, encouraging sellers to use any headline-driven rally to hedge.

Traders will also watch how buyers price heavy crude versus the benchmarks. Differentials — discounts or premiums for a specific grade versus a benchmark — often react faster than futures when a particular stream is threatened.

Energy investors will be looking for clarity on whether the U.S. action changes the sanctions picture, shipping compliance, or the scope of Washington’s pressure campaign against Venezuelan crude.

Before the next session, traders will parse Trump’s promised briefing and look for confirmation from Caracas on who controls the military and the oil industry, and whether the U.S. operation broadens. Any move that constrains tankers, financing or payments would carry more weight for crude than battlefield headlines alone.

A separate supply lever comes on Sunday when eight OPEC+ members meet to review policy after pausing output hikes for the first quarter. OPEC and sources inside the producer group have said the panel is expected to keep production steady after oil prices fell more than 18% last year.  Reuters

U.S. inventory data is the next scheduled catalyst: the Energy Information Administration is set to release its weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, a report traders use to track crude and fuel stockpiles. EIA has said it will roll out a new information release system for the report on Jan. 7.  EIA

Macro traders will also track the U.S. employment report on Jan. 9, with job growth and wages shaping the dollar and interest-rate expectations. A stronger dollar can make commodities priced in dollars more expensive for other buyers.  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Brent starts the week just above the $60 mark, a level traders will treat as a technical checkpoint after last year’s selloff. Unless Venezuelan exports are visibly disrupted, oversupply concerns and producer policy are likely to keep next week’s trade choppy and range-bound.

Near-Term Resistance Defines Bullish Reclaim Zone

The three-day high at $4,404 is key near-term resistance since a sustained rally above that level could lead to a continuation of the long-term bull trend. Sustained trade above that high would have gold back above the prior trend high of $4,381 from October and the 10-day average, now at $4,393.

Even though a potentially bearish inverted hammer will complete for Friday, a higher daily high and higher low was established for the first day in four. This shows a degree of support that shows the potential for further strengthening. If gold stays above Wednesday’s low of $4,274, a higher swing low is established. It takes on greater significance since it is aligned with the 20-day average.

First Pullback Tests Post-Breakout Structure

Gold is in its first pullback following a new record high breakout in late-December to $4,550. Dynamic support was seen near the 20-day average since mid-November and is being tested once again. The price area near the 20-day line is also indicated as possible support by a top trend channel line. A second upside breakout of the channel was sustained in December, leading to a new trend high. So, the current pullback is both the first since the new trend high and for the channel breakout.

Upside Targets and Downside Risk Levels Identified

The expectation is that support will hold, leading to further strengthening. Above $4,404 and gold targets a $4,516 to $4,578 price zone for potential resistance. On the downside, a break below $4,274 eliminates a higher swing low and puts the 50-day line in site at $4,180.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Bullish Reversal Possible but Not Confirmed

Given the long-term nature of the 200-day line there is the potential for a completion of the bearish correction and a bullish reversal from the area around the average. Recent volatility however could result in a short-term failure of the 200-day average and a dip to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3.45. If that was followed quickly by a reclaim of the 200-day line, the potential for further upside rises.

Aggressive Selling Signals Second Leg Risk

Bearish momentum spiked following the December $5.50 peak, which was a three-year high. The drop quickly put natural gas below the 20-day average and then the 50-day average. Resistance near the 20-day line was confirmed a week ago Wednesday during the first pullback following a breakdown of the 20-day average. On Tuesday a pullback found resistance a bit below the 50-day average. That led to Friday’s new trend low.

Harmonic Targets Define Deeper Downside

This behavior shows aggressive selling that may still be early in a second leg down from the top. If this pattern plays out like it might, the 78.6% retracement is also at risk of failure. A lower target at $3.26 would then be likely. That’s where the second leg down (CD) is 78.6% of the decline seen in the first leg down (AB). There is the potential for support to be seen near that harmonic relationship between the two downswings.

Short-Term Bounce Faces Falling Resistance

In the short-term and before further testing of support near the 200-day line, a breakout above today’s high of $3.70 shows strength but within the larger bearish structure. Key resistance to consider would then be around the 10-day average, now at $4.03 and falling. Wednesday’s high at $3.98 is nearby and can be used to assistant in gauging potential short-term resistance.

Quarterly Structure Supports Long-Term Recovery

The bigger picture quarterly chart suggests the potential for an eventual strong bullish recovery once the current correction is complete. In the Q4 2025 natural gas closed at $3.71 – above the prior quarter high of $3.63. That confirmed a bullish breakout of a quarterly bull hammer candlestick pattern and the completion of the first quarterly pullback for the rally begun from the 2024 low.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.