– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound-to-Euro Forecast: Retakes 1.15 Today on EUR Correction

The Pound to Euro exchange rate recovered to retake the 1.15 as the single currency weakened across global markets and risk appetite improved, helping lift Pound Sterling from earlier lows.

Barclays sees scope for GBP/EUR to recover towards 1.1765.

Foreign exchange analysts at Danske Bank, however, expect that the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) will slide to 1.1240 over the next six to twelve months.

During the week, Pound Sterling posted sustained losses and dipped to test 3-month lows just above 1.1440 amid Euro gains and negative Pound sentiment.

In the short term, EU-US trade developments ahead of the August 1st deadline could be pivotal in determining whether GBP/EUR breaks below 1.1440.

Any deal could lead to further near-term Euro demand.

Credit Agricole sees scope for a limited Pound recovery; “Barring any massive data surprise, the GBP could still try to reverse its slight near-term undervaluation, especially as the UK-US trade deal could shelter the GBP at a time when the 1 August deadline looms large for the EU.”

According to Barclays, the Pound is now undervalued; “we think conditions are in place for EURGBP to converge towards lower levels more consistent with rate differentials and the VIX (c.0.85). (1.1765 for GBP/EUR)

Danske, however, expects that the weak UK fundamentals will lead to further Pound losses.

The latest UK business confidence data was mixed with a slight improvement in manufacturing offset by weaker growth in services.

There was further upward pressure on costs and a key element was evidence of weak demand, together with persistent inflation pressure which increased fears of stagflation within the economy.

According to ING; “Higher payroll taxes and a chunky rise in the National Living Wage back in April are exerting more significant downward pressure on staffing numbers, according to the latest PMI.”

It added; “But the PMI also suggests these policy changes are keeping upward pressure on prices. We’ve seen hints of this in the CPI data, principally in food, where inflation rates have picked up over and above what we’ve seen in the eurozone.”

Danske Bank commented; “the pressure on GBP has mounted as the UK economy has showed more pronounced signs of weakness. We increasingly see domestic factors and the relative growth outlook between the UK and the euro area as becoming GBP negatives.”

It added; “Additionally, we think a global investment environment characterised by elevated uncertainty, widening credit spreads and a positive correlation to a USD negative environment, in our view, favours a weaker GBP.”

There are very strong expectations of an August Bank of England rate cut.

JP Morgan expects quarterly cuts, but added; “if the MPC is increasing its focus on slack, then there is still a risk that more members on the MPC could shift their support for a faster pace of cuts in 2H25.”

The ECB held interest rates at 2.00% and there were hints of no further cuts.

According to Rabobank; “It was also very unlikely that Lagarde would give any new guidance for September. She didn’t. But, reading between the lines, her slightly more upbeat comments hinted at lower odds that the ECB will cut again.”

Danske Bank commented; “Our forecast anticipates a final 25 basis point reduction to 1.75% at the September meeting, though the risks lean towards leaving the policy rate unchanged.”

ING noted the possibility that talk could move towards rate hike; “if the trade tensions are resolved quickly and a lifting of uncertainty increased resilience of the eurozone economy, the debate at the ECB could quickly shift. From whether or not more rate cuts are needed to when to hike rates in order to tackle inflationary pressures stemming from fiscal stimulus.”

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Tests One-Week Low on EU-US Trade Deal

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate slipped to a one-week low on Monday as markets digested the EU-US trade deal announced over the weekend.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3417, having touched a one-week low of $1.3407 earlier in the session.

The US Dollar (USD) advanced at the start of the week, lifted by relief among investors following a breakthrough trade agreement between the United States and the European Union.

The pact averts a potentially damaging trade conflict, with both sides stepping back from the brink after the US threatened to impose 30% tariffs on EU imports. In response, the EU had prepared to counter with so-called ‘anti-coercion’ measures.

Analysts suggest the deal strongly benefits the US, with one describing it as a ‘big win’ for President Donald Trump. Under the terms, the EU has committed to purchasing $750bn in energy and semiconductor products from the US over the next three years, alongside plans to invest $600bn in the American economy over the same timeframe.

The Pound (GBP) was on the back foot on Monday, slipping against the strengthening US Dollar as worries over the UK’s fiscal outlook dampened investor appetite.

Concerns about rising debt levels and the sustainability of public finances weighed on Sterling, particularly after high-profile hedge fund manager Ray Dalio warned that the UK is trapped in a ‘doom loop’ of mounting debt, elevated taxes, and weak growth.

His comments followed disappointing public borrowing figures and speculation that Chancellor Rachel Reeves may be forced to announce tax hikes in the autumn, having failed to deliver welfare reform.

Nevertheless, GBP/USD avoided steeper losses thanks to a broadly risk-on tone across European markets, which helped support the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound against other major currencies.

Looking ahead, Tuesday kicks off a packed schedule of US economic data, starting with the latest job openings report. Markets are bracing for a decline in vacancies during June – a result that could spark fresh concerns about labour market softness and weigh on the Dollar.

At the same time, the release of the US consumer confidence index may offset some of that pressure. Sentiment is forecast to have improved in July, which could help buoy the ‘Greenback’ if the data comes in strong.

In contrast, the UK calendar remains light, leaving the Pound likely to take its cues from broader market sentiment. If investors remain upbeat, risk appetite could lend Sterling some support while also potentially tempering demand for the safe-haven Dollar.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

• The US dollar has been positive again during the Friday trading session as we are touching the 200 Day EMA, and perhaps more importantly for me, the ¥148 level.
• This is an area that we have seen resistance previously, and the fact that the 200 Day EMA is sitting there as well makes quite a bit of sense.
• All things being equal, this is a situation where I do think that you favor the upside due to the interest rate differential, and of course the fact that the Bank of Japan has to worry about a bond market that is quite frankly, pathetic.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this pair is somewhat neutral in the short term, negative over the longer term, but in the intermediate term, it does appear that we are doing everything we can to turn things around and rally. I like buying small positions in this market in just simply collecting the swap at the end of every day, suggesting that I could be into this trade to the upside for months. If we can break above the recent swing high near the ¥149 level, that opens up the possibility of a move to much higher levels, perhaps even kicking off a longer-term “buy-and-hold” situation. I do think that eventually this is a being the case, because the US dollar is oversold, and unlike many other pairs, the US dollar is actually the currency that people buy when they are feeling more “risk on.”

If we were to turn around and fall from here, the ¥146 level is an area that I’m watching, as it is the 50 Day EMA sitting right there as well, and of course previously it has offered both support and resistance so I think a certain amount of “market memory” can be found there as well. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of interest in that area. At this point, I have no interest whatsoever in shorting this pair.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.