May 22 (Reuters) – Barclays is maintaining its 2026 average Brent crude oil price forecast at $100 a barrel though ​risks are skewing higher, the bank ‌said in a note on Friday.

In trading on Friday, Brent futures were at about $105 a barrel as investors doubted the prospects of a ‌breakthrough ​in U.S.-Iran peace talks, ⁠while the key Strait ⁠of Hormuz stayed closed. [O/R]

Around 20% of global energy supplies transited the strait before the war, and the conflict has ​removed 14 million barrels per day of oil – or 14% of global supply – ⁠from the market from ⁠suppliers such as Saudi Arabia, ​Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait.

“Inventory trends are ​signaling a 6-8 (million bpd) deficit with the ‌U.S. inventories within reach of the lowest levels since 2020,” the bank said.

Barclays said that even if the Strait of ⁠Hormuz were to fully reopen today, the starting point for inventories even in the most ⁠optimistic scenario ‌will be roughly 20 million ⁠barrel below the tightest level ​in ‌recent history.

Meanwhile, demand remains largely ​resilient and ⁠any weakness in the end uses linked to industrial activity will likely recover strongly if supply normalizes quickly, the bank added.

(Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by ​Christian Schmollinger)