According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point June Fed rate cut fell from 57.4% to 52.9% in the week ending Mar 15. More significantly, the chances of a 25-basis point May Fed rate cut slid from 23.2% to 8.7% in the week ending Mar 15.

BTC-Spot ETF Market Resilient Despite BTC Pullback

The BTC-spot ETF market saw net inflows fall from $683.7 million (Mar 13) to $132.5 million (Mar 14). iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net inflows of $345.4 million to ensure the BTC-spot ETF market extended its run of net inflows to nine sessions.

Nonetheless, the impact of the US data was evident. Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw net inflows slide from $281.5 million (Mar 13) to $13.7 million (Mar 14). FBTC net inflows were the lowest since launching on Jan 11. (All BTC-spot ETF flow data from BitMEX Research).

BTC and the broader crypto market joined the Nasdaq Composite Index in negative territory on Mar 14 and Mar 15. However, profit-taking impacted BTC more. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq was up 6.41% to Mar 15. In contrast, BTC was up 60.80%, leaving BTC at risk of a sharper pullback.

Despite the two-day pullback from the new all-time high of $73,810 (Mar14), BTC-spot ETF net inflows could see a new weekly high. From Monday (Mar 11) to Thursday (Mar 14), the BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $2,368.7 million. In the week ending Feb 16 (Monday to Friday), the BTC-spot ETF market saw total net inflows of $2,271 million, the previous weekly high.

The flow data supported bets on a BTC move toward $100,000. However, the flow data for Mar 15 could impact buyer demand for BTC. A large investor base may be using BTC-spot ETF trends as a proxy for BTC price trends.