Cryptocurrencies will remain in focus in the coming weeks in anticipation of Bitcoin’s so-called halving, when the issuance of new tokens is cut in half. The event, which happens every four years, has historically boosted prices. Bitcoin rose more than 500% a year after the previous one.

However, it’s a very different picture heading into this halving, which is expected in the next two weeks. Bitcoin was trading around $9,000 before the 2020 halving, while in contrast it hit a new record of nearly $74,000 last month.

“Historically, Bitcoin halving events have marked significant points followed by 9-18 months of uptrend, culminating in cycle peaks. However, for the first time, Bitcoin reached its all-time high in anticipation of the halving, indicating a departure from previous cycles,” said Fineqia International analyst Matteo Greco.

He noted that if historical patterns do repeat this time, then prices will keep going higher for the rest of 2024, peaking between the fourth quarter of the year and the beginning of 2025.

History suggests another boom ahead, but Bitcoin has never been so high heading into a halving, and therefore the crypto is heading into the unknown.

Write to Callum Keown at callum.keown@barrons.com