Domestic coffee prices today

The domestic coffee market this morning (May 8) recorded a simultaneous recovery in key growing areas of the Central Highlands after previous volatile sessions. According to actual records, the average purchase price throughout the region has increased by another 500 VND/kg, bringing the crude price level to the threshold of 87,660 VND/kg.

In Dak Nong province (old), coffee prices recorded an increase of 400 VND, pushing the purchase price to the milestone of 87,700 VND/kg, continuing to maintain the highest position in the region.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces both had an increase of 500 VND, currently trading stably at the threshold of 87,500 VND/kg.

Lam Dong area listed the price at 87,000 VND/kg after recovering by another 500 VND compared to yesterday’s session. In addition, pepper prices continued to remain unchanged at a high level of 143,000 VND/kg, while the USD/VND exchange rate at Vietcombank slightly decreased by 1 VND to 26,087 VND/USD.

World coffee prices

Developments in the international market last night showed an extremely clear differentiation between the two main coffee lines. The London exchange continues to be a fulcrum for domestic prices when the price of Robusta for July delivery surged by another 19 USD (equivalent to 0.56%), reaching 3,432 USD/ton.

Conversely, the New York Stock Exchange witnessed a strong sell-off session that caused Arabica prices to plummet by 10.60 cents (equivalent to 3.73%), falling deep to 272.45 cents/lb, officially hitting the lowest level in the past 2 weeks.

Coffee market situation assessment

The sharp drop in Arabica stems from huge psychological pressure as reports predicting a “super bumper” crop in Brazil are continuously released. Coffee Trading Academy estimates that Brazil’s 2026/27 crop output will increase by 12%, reaching 71.4 million bags, while StoneX even gave a global surplus of up to 10 million bags for 2026. This has triggered a sell-off wave on the New York exchange as speculators worry about a long-term supply surplus.

However, Robusta prices still maintained green thanks to the fact that the actual supply shortage has not shown signs of cooling down. Robusta inventories monitored by the ICE exchange have fallen to a record low in 16.25 months, with only 3,755 lots left.

In addition, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to geopolitical tensions is blocking the supply chain, pushing transportation costs, insurance and fertilizer prices to skyrocket, directly creating barriers to prevent prices from falling deeply. In Vietnam, although exports in the first 4 months of the year increased sharply by 15.8% to 810,000 tons, the amount of inventory in the people is no longer much, which also contributes to keeping pace for domestic prices.