Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market in the morning trading session of June 4, 2026 recorded a sharp decline after yesterday’s short-term recovery session.

According to survey data in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, bulk purchase prices simultaneously decreased from 1,200 to 1,400 VND per kg compared to the trading session on June 3, 2026, bringing the average price level of the whole region back to the 86,000 VND per kg mark.

Specifically, in Dak Lak, Gia Lai and Dak Nong (old), the purchase price recorded decreases of 1,200 VND, 1,200 VND and 1,300 VND respectively, currently fluctuating in the range of 86,000 VND per kg. In the Lam Dong area, the price of raw coffee beans decreased the most by 1,400 VND, to 85,300 VND per kg.

In other items, the price of pepper increased by 1,000 VND, to 140,000 VND per kg, while the USD/VND exchange rate at Vietcombank remained unchanged at 26,092 VND.

World coffee prices

On international futures exchanges, coffee prices in the nearest closing session witnessed a simultaneous “slump”. On the London exchange, Robusta futures for July 2026 delivery fell sharply by 91 USD, equivalent to 2.63%, closing the session at 3,371 USD per ton.

Similarly, on the New York exchange, Arabica futures prices for delivery in July 2026 decreased by 6.10 cents, equivalent to 2.35%, falling to 253.10 cents per pound.

Selling pressure on both exchanges mainly came from information forecasting coffee production for the 2026/27 crop year of Brazil announced by the Foreign Agricultural Service Administration (FAS) under the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), with a forecast of reaching a record level of 71.9 million bags, an increase of 14% compared to the same period last year. This information completely changed the supply prospects, causing investment funds to accelerate position liquidation.

Coffee price assessment and forecast

The coffee market is currently in a period of strong technical correction as global supply prospects are clearly improved.

In addition to the latest report from USDA/FAS on record crops in Brazil, Rabobank has also just raised its global Arabica coffee surplus forecast for the 2026/27 crop year to 9.5 million bags.

The improvement in supply prospects in Brazil, combined with strong export data from Vietnam (up 15.8% in the first 4 months of the year), is creating negative pressure on prices.

However, this picture still has long-term supporting factors to note. Although Arabica inventories on the ICE exchange fell to 427,840 bags on Wednesday, the tight supply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz still increased global shipping and logistics costs.

In addition, concerns about the “Super El Niño” phenomenon in the second half of 2026 are still a major risk variable for next year’s crop. In the short term, coffee prices may continue to be under adjustment pressure as the market responds to record crop information, but in the long term, the possibility of deep price drops will be limited by increased production and logistics costs.