CPM Gold Trade Recommendation

Time Stamp 

Prices as of 3:03 p.m. EST 1 March 2024 $2,092.90 (Basis the April 2024 Comex contract). 

Recommendation: Sell

Initial Target Price / Range: $2,075

Initial Timeframe: 1 March 2024 to 15 March 2024

Gold prices rallied today following a lower than expected ISM manufacturing figure for the United States coupled with a Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation index slightly below market expectations on Thursday. There has been a combination of factors that have been increasing gold price volatility over the past several weeks and prices have been slowy rising from their mid-February lows until today. This includes the mixed economic data for the United States along with political discord and friction in Europe and the United States, in addition to the ongoing, perhaps worsening conflicts between Israel and Hamas, and Russia and Ukraine. 

Gold prices have sold off most every time they have tested resistance levels, and as prices test strong support levels, investors step back into the market initiating new longs once more. This has kept gold prices in a wide range mostly above $2,000. Gold prices are now testing $2,100, having firmly broken above $2,050 yesterday. The market appears to be looking for reasons to go long gold, and taking profits as technical resistance levels are tested. 

It is unclear if prices will continue to climb in the near term, but they already have made strong gains, suggesting the potential for a short-term pullback on profit taking. A retrenchment in prices could push gold back toward $2,075, which could potentially present a buying opportunity should the upward momentum continue. There is still some seasonal strength in gold prices that could last through end-March. 

CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory. 

While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.

Notes: 

Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time. 

Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target. 

CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.

CPM Group wants to thank the following companies for helping us make these short Trade Signals available free of charge, and for their commitment to providing good information in opaque and asymmetrical commodities markets. 

Kitco
Metallic Minerals
Stillwater Critical Minerals
Granite Creek Copper