EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy scenario: From the support level of 1.1490 with a target of 1.1620 and a stop-loss at 1.1400

• Sell scenario: From the resistance level of 1.1680 with a target of 1.1480 and a stop-loss at 1.1750

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today

Investors are now focused on the European Central Bank’s decision today, Thursday, which could represent the next major test for the EUR/USD pair’s performance after the recent strong US jobs and inflation figures significantly impacted market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s future policies.

Across the best trading platforms, the Euro price fell against the US Dollar to the 1.1499 support level at the beginning of the trading week, before relatively recovering to 1.1575 yesterday. The pair failed to gain enough positive momentum to continue its rebound, as US inflation figures ultimately supported sellers in maintaining control over the trend.

What is expected from the ECB decisions today?

According to currency market trading, the single European currency has shown some nervousness ahead of the crucial ECB decision this Thursday. While the bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, the Euro’s weakness suggests markets are cautious that the central bank might adopt a dovish tone.

Ultimately, with a rate hike already anticipated, the tone and forward guidance regarding the probability of future hikes are what will determine the financial market’s reaction.

In general, money markets indicate that investors are prepared for at least one more rate hike in the coming months—specifically, pricing in an approximate 65% probability of additional tightening, equivalent to one and a half standard hikes.

Therefore, the European Central Bank (ECB) must confirm this expectation to maintain the euro’s stability. Given the euro’s decline prior to this event, we anticipate a “buy-on-this-expectation” reaction will be beneficial for the euro if the ECB clarifies that it sees a need to raise interest rates again.

Technical Outlook for EUR/USD Today:

According to performance on the daily timeframe, the overall trend for the EUR/USD pair remains firmly bearish, and stabilizing around and below the 1.1500 psychological support reinforces the sellers’ dominance. Technical indicators still have room to head toward lower support levels before reaching oversold conditions.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving near the 40 level, reflecting the continuation of negative momentum without having reached oversold territory yet. The MACD indicator shows a bearish bias, and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains below the 200-day SMA.

Conversely, an upside reversal scenario would only begin to take shape if the EUR/USD price rises to break above the 1.1700 resistance barrier once again.

The EUR/USD pair will be influenced today by the European Central Bank’s policy announcement and the release of key US economic data, including the Producer Price Index and weekly jobless claims.

Trading Advice:

EUR/USD price will remain within tight ranges until the market reacts to these high-impact, critical data releases and events, keeping in mind that selling pressures persist.

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