Created on April 21, 2026

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bullish, but vulnerable to a technical correction.

  

• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1755 – 1.1700 – 1.1660

• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: : 1.1800 – 1.1870 – 1.1910

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

Buy Scenario:

Sell Scenario:

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today

With renewed investor risk aversion amid a clear stalemate in ending the Iran conflict—which could lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rising global crude oil prices, and increased inflationary pressures—the Euro has faced negative headwinds. The EUR/USD pair has returned to selling pressure, stabilizing around the 1.1774 support at the time of writing. This is a slight improvement from the losses seen at the start of the trading week when it plummeted to the 1.1727 support level.

Will the EUR/USD pair fall back to the 1.1600 support level?

According to data from top trading firms, the Euro exchange rate against the Dollar may head toward testing the 1.16 support level again. However, curbing the appetite for buying remains difficult. The Dollar is rising as the new week begins, which could push the Euro back to levels seen on March 3rd near the 1.16 support.

Generally, US Dollar gains are fueled by fears that the imminent ceasefire between the US and Iran may not be renewed this Tuesday, especially following the events of the last 24 hours involving the US seizure of an Iranian vessel.

Consequently, it is too early to confirm a total collapse of the situation. We believe the Euro’s decline against the Dollar will be limited by trader confidence that both the US and Iran are seeking a deal and will eventually reach one. President Trump has a history of announcing agreements at the final moment before a deadline, and there is no reason to believe this won’t happen today.

From a technical perspective, the worst-case scenario for the next 24 hours is the failure to renew the ceasefire and a resumption of hostilities. This would increase demand for the dollar as a safe haven and raise concerns about the outlook for the Eurozone economy.

If this occurs, the EUR/USD exchange rate could fall to the 1.16 support level, which is the 200-day moving average. However, this level remains significantly higher than the crisis lows seen in early March, suggesting that the foreign exchange market anticipates an eventual new ceasefire agreement, followed by the eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

On the daily chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding steady around 61, indicating continued positive momentum, albeit at a weaker pace. While the MACD remains in positive territory, current signs of slowing suggest a potential continuation of the downward correction before the upward trend resumes. Moving averages continue to indicate greater buying pressure.

A stronger bullish scenario requires a move towards the resistance levels of 1.1850, followed by the psychological resistance level of 1.2000.

Based on fundamental analysis, the EUR/USD pair will react today to the release of the German ZEW Consumer Sentiment Index at 11:00 AM Egypt time, followed by the release of US retail sales figures at 2:30 PM Egypt time. Then, important statements from US President Trump and the Federal Reserve member nominated to succeed Jerome Powell.

Conclusion: The medium-term trend for EUR/USD remains tilted toward the positive. However, short-term bullish momentum is losing steam as prices fail to stabilize above the 1.1800 resistance level.

Trading Advice

Dear TradersUp trader, we still prefer selling the Euro against the US Dollar on every strong upward rebound. Avoid excessive risk, monitor the factors influencing the currency pair, and ensure Take-Profit and Stop-Loss orders are active to manage expected price volatility.

Ready to trade our daily Forex analysis? We’ve made this forex brokers list for you to check out.