• The EUR/USD went into this weekend near the 1.07023 level. On Wednesday of this past week the EUR/USD was trading near the 1.08510 mark.
• On Monday the 10^th of June the EUR/USD fell to a low around the 1.07320 level.
• The EUR/USD endured two significant selloffs on the 7^th and 10^th of June.
• The EUR/USD reestablished its higher price range then in the middle of this week, only to once again produce a strong move downwards.

European Parliament election results, the call for a French vote later this month, and even the upcoming U.K election in early July have had impacts on behavioral sentiment. Also in the middle of this past week the U.S Federal Reserve announced its FOMC Statement, sounding rather cautious regarding interest rates and sticking to its reactive mindset. Speculators who have survived the turmoil of EUR/USD trading the past six days will likely enter this coming week’s Forex market rather cautiously.

Current Lows in the EUR/USD and Mid-Term Support

The ability of the EUR/USD to suffer what have been three rather strong selloffs in the past six days certainly should have traders nervous. Mid-term support levels are back within sight and the low this past Friday when the 1.06700 level was penetrated downwards was a violent moment. While a reversal upwards did occur and the 1.07000 ratio was again seen, this is not entirely a positive signal.

Tomorrow’s opening in the EUR/USD will be must watch news for global Forex traders, this as they try to gauge existing behavioral sentiment. The EUR/USD selling didn’t correlate to the broader Forex market regarding the depth of the currency pair’s volatility seen the past six days of trading. While other major currencies have stumbled against the USD certainly, they have not seen the same amount of violent reactions. Behavioral sentiment is a key for the EUR/USD and financial institutions appear to be rather shaken regarding potential shakeups to existing power within European governments. However, some may suspect the selling has been overdone.

EUR/USD Short-Term Traders vs. Mid-Term Outlooks

Short-term trading in the EUR/USD could stay particularly violent. U.S economic data was mostly weaker than anticipated last week, this should have helped the EUR/USD gain, but it certainly did not accomplish an upwards trajectory. Mid-term outlooks for the EUR/USD are likely much more optimistic for the currency pair among some financial institutions, but the level of rollercoaster movements in the EUR/USD were more akin to an emerging market currency pair, instead of one of the world most established measurements for global commerce.

• If the EUR/USD falls through the 1.07000 level and sustains values below early this week it will be a sign behavioral sentiment continues to be nervous.
• The current price of the EUR/USD is testing values last seen in early May, and rather close to lows seen in late April when the 1.06200 levels were tested until producing some buying upwards.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.06525 to 1.08100

The past handful of days in the EUR/USD is a good lesson that the price of the market is the correct value even if experienced traders are betting against the short-term volatile trends. Speculators will need to be cautious and monitor the trading of the EUR/USD on Monday and Tuesday of this week carefully. If the EUR/USD can start to deliver upwards momentum this may be a positive sign, but short-term nervousness appears to remain rather influential for the currency pair.

Conservative bullish traders may want to see sustained momentum above the 1.07250 level before they venture buying positions. However, the results from the past week of trading in the EUR/USD highlight the amount of fragile sentiment within the currency pair. Traders need to remember that outlooks for the EUR/USD for the short-term and mid-term may be quite different for the moment. Speculators looking for quick hitting moves in the EUR/USD need to be careful. While the downside may look limited, price action the past week has proven this notion wrong and costly for those wagering on reversals higher.

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