– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Risks $1.30 as Markets Turn Cautious

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) drifted lower on Wednesday as investors erred on the side of caution, boosting appetite for the safe-haven US Dollar.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading near $1.3116, roughly 0.2% down from the day’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) firmed on Wednesday as worries over a possible stock market pullback encouraged investors to rotate into safer assets.

Nerves were particularly heightened ahead of Nvidia’s third-quarter earnings release — a report widely viewed as a barometer for broader tech-sector momentum. A disappointing result could revive fears of overstretched valuations.

Additional support for the US Dollar came as markets waited for the publication of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes.

USD traders broadly expect the minutes to reinforce the hawkish message delivered recently by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, further reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in December.

The Pound (GBP) lost ground on Wednesday after fresh inflation data strengthened expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed headline inflation slipping from 3.8% to 3.6% in October, while core inflation eased from 3.5% to 3.4%.

The cooling in price pressures, driven largely by a steep year-on-year decline in energy costs, aligned with market forecasts and marked the first drop in inflation since May.

In response, investors ramped up bets on another 25bps BoE rate cut in December, with markets expecting the dovish bloc on the Monetary Policy Committee to win out as economic momentum continues to sag.

However, the data wasn’t entirely negative for Sterling. The easing of inflation pushed gilt yields lower, potentially giving Chancellor Rachel Reeves some additional fiscal flexibility when she delivers next week’s autumn budget.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Forecast: Soft US Payrolls to Sink the US Dollar?

Looking ahead to Thursday, all eyes will be on the delayed release of September’s US non-farm payrolls.

Economists expect the data, postponed for nearly two months by the US government shutdown, to show 50,000 new jobs were created, up from August’s subdued 22,000 print.

Even with this improvement, the figures would still point toward a cooling labour market. Any signs of softening could weigh on the US Dollar if they encourage traders to reassess the prospect of a Fed rate cut later in the year.

Meanwhile, lingering uncertainty surrounding the UK’s autumn budget is likely to keep the Pound under pressure through the session.

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Created on November 19, 2025

• The US dollar continues its steady climb against the yen as strong buying pressure holds the pair above key support.
• Interest-rate differentials and Japan’s loose policy backdrop favor further upside, with pullbacks still viewed as buying opportunities.

The US dollar initially pulled back against the Japanese yen, but we have seen quite a bit of buying pressure during the trading session to turn things around. We are well above the ¥155 level, an area that has been important multiple times. Now that we are breaking above there by about 60 pips, I do think that we have much further to go and eventually could go looking to the ¥158.50 level.

Short-term pullbacks offer buying opportunities in this market, as it is a nice uptrend that has been going on for quite some time. Quite frankly, the Japanese are likely to be very loose with monetary policy going forward from the new government. With that, I think the interest-rate differential will continue to be the main driver of this market higher. There is a shortage of US dollars around the world, and whether or not Japan is short remains to be seen, but it does not really matter.

Floor in this Market

All things being equal, this is a market where the ¥153 level is your floor. The 50-day EMA is racing toward that area. As you get paid at the end of every day to hold this pair to the long side, that is all I have been doing for several months now, and this is a reasonable amount of my portfolio. It is a nice investment. It is the carry trade that Forex markets tend to rely on over the longer term.

Anytime we pull back, you have to look at it as a potential buying opportunity. There is nothing on this chart that even remotely suggests that we should be shorting this pair. It is a nice, gentle grind higher. It is relentless, and that is exactly what you want to see—not exuberant buying, but a nice steady grind to the upside that continues to defy gravity in a slow and controlled manner. I do believe this pair goes much higher.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on November 19, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Neutral.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1550 – 1.1480 – 1.1400
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1640 – 1.1700 – 1.1780

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1480 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1400.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1730 with a target of 1.1480 and a stop-loss at 1.1800.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

As expected, the EUR/USD pair has been trading within a very narrow range since the start of the week, awaiting market and investor reaction to the release of US economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve, which will begin today and continue until the end of the week. According to reliable trading platforms, the EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1586. Prior to this, the EUR/USD exchange rate had risen to 1.1620 last week after the US dollar weakened amid renewed uncertainty regarding the timing and accuracy of economic data following the end of the US government shutdown.

Markets are in a Highly Cautious Stance

According to Forex trading experts’ forecasts, financial markets are now facing a critical phase of “data compensation” that may determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates again in December. Regarding the future of prices, ING Bank expects the EUR/USD exchange rate to gradually rise to 1.22 by the end of 2026.

Last week, the US Congress voted to end the government shutdown, but a great deal of uncertainty remains about the underlying economic situation. Experts commented on the event by saying: “With the government shutdown over, transparency is gradually returning, although many inflation and labor market figures are still based on estimates.” Overall, a key factor will be the impact on Federal Reserve policy. Clear divisions exist within the Committee, and confidence in another US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has waned, with traders now estimating the probability of no further action at approximately 50%.

In general, we expect the Federal Reserve to largely overlook these price pressures, arguing that they are likely one-off shocks related to tariffs and not indicative of broader price pressures. Additionally, there is also clear, immense political pressure on the Federal Reserve to be more assertive in pursuing rate cuts.

A cut to the federal funds rate of 3.0% next year is anticipated. A high degree of uncertainty surrounding trade and fiscal policies is also noted, which will inevitably increase potential risks to the outlook. In addition, renewed concerns about the sustainability of US debt and the accumulation of a political risk premium ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections represent tangible risks.

On another note, developments in the Eurozone will also be important. According to ING Bank: “It may not seem like it today, but we are looking forward to the Eurozone economy accelerating through 2026. The region has sufficient savings to tap into, and we anticipate a German fiscal stimulus to register in 2026.”

Today’s EUR/USD trading scenario hinges on the release of Eurozone inflation figures at 12:00 PM Egypt time, followed by the more crucial release of the minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve meeting at 9:00 PM Egypt time. Prior to these events, the EUR/USD exchange rate is technically relatively lower, as evidenced by the RSI reading around 48, below the neutral line. However, the MACD indicator is also in the same area, awaiting further developments. The bullish scenario requires the EUR/USD pair to first reach the psychological resistance level of 1.1800.

Trading Advice:

Be cautious. The Euro/Dollar’s movement in narrow ranges for several trading sessions is typically followed by a strong move in one direction or the other, depending on the currency-influencing factors listed in the analysis above.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD analysis and predictions? Here are the best European brokers to choose from.

Created on November 19, 2025

• EUR/GBP shows early attempts to rally but continues to struggle for sustained traction.
• Support near 0.8750 remains crucial, backed by prior resistance, recent tests, and the 50-day EMA.
• Broader bias still favors upside toward 0.89.

The Euro initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session here on Tuesday, but then gave back the gains as the Euro continues to struggle with traction. All things being equal, this is a market that I think eventually will try to find some support, and there is a very obvious place to look.

0.8750 Continues to Matter

That is the 0.8750 level. That’s an area that previously had been resistant, so it’s worth looking at it through the prism of market memory. It has been tested a couple of times here in the last couple of weeks, and it has held quite nicely. We now see the 50-day EMA race toward it as well, so that’s another reason to think that this could offer some support.

But with that, we will have to wait and see. The fact that we could not hang on to gains for the second or third day in a row really suggests a scenario where a little bit of a breather helps and offers enough value that people are willing to get involved in the market and start buying. In general, I do believe this is a market that will continue to be somewhat noisy, but it’s also a market that still favors the upside as, although the Bank of England did not cut rates at the last meeting, they are getting very close to doing so, and that of course, means that we have to reprice the British pound itself.

Over the longer term, the 0.89 level is more likely than not to be your target based on the consolidation area that we just broke out of and its measured move. I have no interest in shorting this pair anytime soon.

Ready to trade our daily Forex analysis? We’ve made this forex brokers list for you to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.