EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Moving within a counter-bearish channel.
• Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1630 – 1.1580 – 1.1490.
• Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1700 – 1.1770 – 1.1830.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1580 with a target of 1.1780 and a stop loss of 1.1490.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1750 with a target of 1.1520 and a stop loss of 1.1830.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

Ahead of anticipated new statements from US Central Bank Governor Jerome Powell today, Tuesday, July 22, 2025, the EUR/USD currency pair attempted to move above the 1.1700 resistance, recovering from its recent losses that pushed it towards the 1.1556 support level by the end of last week’s trading. The Euro’s stability comes as investors await the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision and closely monitor trade developments between the EU and the United States.

On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged next Thursday after eight consecutive cuts, with policymakers adopting a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainty about the impact of higher-than-expected US tariffs and the strong Euro on European growth and inflation. Meanwhile, EU envoys are preparing to meet this week to discuss emergency measures in case no agreement is reached with US President Donald Trump, whose stance on tariffs appears to have hardened ahead of the August 1st deadline.

The technical forecasts for EUR/USD still indicate that the currency pair is moving within a counter-bearish channel, supported by its move below the 1.1600 support level. With the gains at the start of the week, the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) has returned to around a reading of 56, moving away from the midline, which gives bulls renewed momentum to push higher. As a result, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines are returning to neutrality. According to the daily timeframe chart performance, the 1.1770 and 1.1830 resistance levels will remain crucial to avoid the recent collapse, and at the same time, expectations for the psychological 1.2000 resistance are re-emerging.

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On the downside, over the same timeframe, trading the Euro below $1.16 will remain important for a bearish reversal and give bears enough momentum to move towards stronger losses. Euro trading today is not anticipating significant economic releases from the Eurozone, and the reaction to US Central Bank Governor Jerome Powell’s statements will be most important for the currency pair.

Trading Tips:

We advise to sell EUR/USD, but without excessive risk, and to monitor factors influencing the currency market.

Key Factors Affecting EUR/USD Price in the Coming Days:

According to observations by forex trading experts, Euro trading is experiencing a temporary upward trend, but it remains stable against the US dollar. Certainly, not many events are expected this week, as forex markets appear relatively quiet for now. While there are no major events on the US calendar, the EU and Japan will have to approve or reject new trade agreements with the United States within the next ten days, with President Donald Trump’s August 1st deadline approaching. Headlines regarding this issue could introduce some short-term volatility into the market.

Trading fundamentals suggest that trade agreements will benefit the US dollar, as they will reduce the likelihood of negative domestic economic shocks stemming from import tariffs. Reports indicate that the United States also wishes to apply comprehensive tariffs on EU goods exceeding 10% with few exceptions.

The main event this week is the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, where interest rates are expected to remain at their current levels, signifying an end to its rate-cutting cycle. Last June, President Lagarde stated that the ECB is well-positioned to handle the current uncertain environment, emphasizing that further cuts are not guaranteed. Experts expect the ECB to keep the deposit facility rate at 2.0% at its meeting scheduled for July 24th, and we do not anticipate any further rate cuts after that. However, the risk of this decision stems from the possibility of an escalation in the trade dispute between the EU and the US, and a further appreciation of the Euro against the dollar.

Overall, if the ECB concludes its interest rate cuts, the Euro will receive good support from a future interest rate differential perspective. However, most market participants believe it will cut interest rates again in September for the final time. Even if it does, the broader picture is that the United States will likely see larger interest rate cuts in the coming months compared to the Eurozone, which supports the Euro against the dollar.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

The GBPJPY pair rose in its last intraday levels, affected by its lean on the support of minor bullish trend line on the short-term basis, gaining positive momentum, accompanied by the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), after reaching oversold levels, attempting to surpass the negative pressure on the EMA50, announcing its full recovery.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise of (GBPJPY) in its upcoming intraday trading, if the support settles at 198.70, to target the critical resistance level at 199.80.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.75 and 199.80

Trend forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair rose in its last intraday levels, affected by its lean on the support of minor bullish trend line on the short-term basis, gaining positive momentum, accompanied by the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), after reaching oversold levels, attempting to surpass the negative pressure on the EMA50, announcing its full recovery.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise of (GBPJPY) in its upcoming intraday trading, if the support settles at 198.70, to target the critical resistance level at 199.80.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.75 and 199.80

Trend forecast: Bullish

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July 21, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast for Coming Week: Diverging FX Predictions

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) faces diverging forecasts, with BNP Paribas targeting a rise to 1.42 by end-2026, while ING sees limited upside amid UK fiscal concerns and a slower Bank of England easing cycle; broader USD weakness may support Sterling, but political risk and Fed uncertainty keep short-term volatility high.

BNP Paribas forecasts that the Pound to Dollar rate will strengthen to 1.38 by the end of 2025 with a further advance to 1.42 by the end of next year.

ING forecasts that GBP/USD will be held to 1.34 on a 12-month view.

GBP/USD dipped to 8-week lows below 1.34 during the week before recovering slightly.

JP Morgan expressed concerns over the technical outlook with GBP/USD key trend support at 1.3376-1.3497.

Looking at the risk of a break it commented; “were to occur this summer. We see the 1.319-1.3148 area as the first medium-term support zone for the pair.”

UK data was mixed during the week, but did dampen expectations of a more aggressive Bank of England (BoE) series of rate cuts.

The headline inflation rate increased to 3.6% from 3.4% with an increase in the core rate to 3.7% from 3.5%.

The latest labour-market data reported a provisional 41,000 decline in payrolls for June, but the May decline was revised to 25,000 from the 109,000 reported previously.

The data eased fears over a rapid deterioration in the jobs market.

Markets are still confident that the BoE will cut rates at the August meeting.

BNP commented; “We continue to hold the view that the GBP can benefit from USD weakness, although not as much as the EUR, which has more positive drivers. We therefore see the GBP performing around the middle of the pack of G10 currencies as the weaker USD trend continues.”

ING remains concerned over the fiscal outlook; “Sterling is starting to underperform a little. Fiscal policy is back in the headlines after the government failed to deliver spending cuts in welfare. Other spending cut options look limited, leaving the alternatives of tax hikes or a softening of the fiscal rules – neither of which look good for sterling.”

ING added; “We still look for the Bank of England to cut rates on a quarterly cycle. But a quicker deterioration in the labour market could see the BoE terminal rate priced some 25-50bp lower to the 3.00/3.25% area. This could see GBP/USD lag in an otherwise soft multi-quarter dollar environment.”

There was firm US data during the week with markets cutting expectations of a September rate cut to around 40%.

Credit Agricole commented; “We think the Fed would prefer to examine another couple of reports before determining a course of action, given that the labour market has held up okay heading into the July FOMC. A September cut remains our current base case, though such a move is far from certain.”

The dollar did, however, slide briefly following reports that President Trump was on the point of dismissing Fed Chair Powell, but recovered quickly when this was denied.

MUFG considers that the threat to Fed independence will remain a key risk factor; “the scope for any meaningful recovery of the dollar remains very limited in our view given these building efforts by the Trump administration to interfere and turn the Fed notably more dovish over time.”

Goldman Sachs expects the US economy will struggle; “A key underpinning to our bearish Dollar outlook is that US firms and households will pay for the majority of the tariffs, which will weigh on US relative performance. This, together with broader policy uncertainty, will lead investors to reduce their exposure to US Dollars.”

BNP remains bearish on the dollar; “We expect the secular USD downtrend to continue as global investors further reduce their overweight and under-hedged US asset exposure.

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