The GBP/USD weekly forecast turns bearish after dipping to 7-week lows.
Upbeat US GDP and Jobless Claims, along with a cautious Fed, triggered a dollar recovery.
Markets now focus on labor market data due next week for a fresh impetus.
The GBP/USD weekly forecast has turned bearish after the price significantly declined last week, reaching 7-week lows near 1.3320. The move was attributed to a stronger dollar after a cautious Fed and upbeat data.
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A broad US dollar resurgence followed stronger-than-expected US GDP growth, a recovery in durable goods orders, and a decline in jobless claims. This reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may not deliver aggressive rate cuts this year. The Fed’s cautious tone was echoed by Fed Chair Powell and other policymakers, which further pushed the greenback up.
On the other hand, softer UK PMI data revealed slower growth momentum, further weighing on the demand for the pound. The Composite PMI fell to 51.0 in September from 53.5 in August, underscoring the fragility of the UK economy. Weaker gilt demand and political uncertainty also kept the sterling subdued.
The Friday’s Core PCE Inflation data came as expected at 2.9% y/y; the lack of upside surprise and a mildly better risk mode helped the GBP/USD stabilize into the weekend. However, the broader sentiment remains favorable for the US dollar as markets scale back bets for quicker Fed easing, while the Bank of England retains its cautious stance.
GBP/USD Key Events Next Week
GBP/USD weekly key events
Moving to the last week of the month, the focus now shifts to the US labor market and the UK growth data, with the following significant events:
UK GDP (Tuesday)
JOLTs Job Opening (Tuesday)
ADP Employment Change (Wednesday)
US Non-Farm Payroll (Friday)
Another round of strong US data could further undermine the GBP/USD, while cooling labor market signs could dampen the dollar’s recovery. Traders will also monitor speeches by the Fed and BOE for fresh policy cues, along with tariff-related developments from the US.
GBP/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Demand Zone Resisting Bears
GBP/USD daily chart
The daily chart for the GBP/USD reveals a neutral to bearish bias, as the downside meets solid support at 1.3340, with the price jumping to the 1.3400 mark while closing the week. However, the prices are lying well below the key moving averages, which could gather selling traction, pushing towards the 200-day MA at 1.3125. This needs a clear breakout of the demand zone.
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On the other hand, if the prices remain supported by the demand zone, the pound could further gain and test the MA confluence zone at 1.3480–1.3500. The markets are likely to consolidate, awaiting fresh impetus.
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USD/JPY Pushes Toward 150.00 as Fed Easing Bets Unwind
USD/JPY surged into Friday’s European session, trading as high as ¥149.96 before easing to ¥149.52 by 17:00 GMT, marking a weekly gain of 1.3%. The move was powered by a sharp reduction in expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts after a combination of stronger-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic releases. Second-quarter GDP was revised up to 3.8% from 3.2%, while weekly jobless claims fell to 218,000, the lowest since July, countering fears of a softening labor market. The dollar index simultaneously climbed to 97.85 before easing back to 97.50, underlining broad greenback strength that lifted USD/JPY from its early-September lows of 146.90.
Tokyo CPI Miss Adds Pressure on the Yen
The Japanese yen’s weakness was exacerbated by softer-than-expected inflation data in Tokyo, where September headline CPI slowed to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.6% in August. The core measure held at 2.5% rather than accelerating to 2.6% as economists had forecast. Markets immediately trimmed the probability of an October Bank of Japan rate hike from 50% to just 35%. The moderation in Japan’s inflation gives policymakers at the BoJ further cover to maintain ultra-accommodative policy, reinforcing the divergence between U.S. and Japanese yields. The move has pushed the yen to its weakest level in eight weeks, with USD/JPY now retesting levels last seen on August 1, when the pair briefly reached 150.00.
Fed Cut Repricing Tightens Link Between Rates and USD/JPY
Correlation studies show USD/JPY tracking short-end U.S. yields and Fed funds futures with a coefficient near -0.94 over the past two weeks, a near-lockstep relationship. Futures markets now discount fewer than 50 basis points of additional easing in 2025, compared to nearly 100 basis points just a month earlier. This repricing, tied closely to resilient consumer spending and income growth in the U.S., has made USD/JPY extremely sensitive to U.S. data surprises. Traders note that while the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—the PCE deflator—rarely shocks, today’s release of spending and income details could prove more consequential for expectations and price action in USD/JPY.
Technical Levels: Resistance at 151.00, Support Near 149.00
USD/JPY’s technical picture has turned decisively bullish. The pair has broken above its 200-day moving average for the first time since June, now holding support near the ¥149.00 level. Momentum gauges confirm the strength of the move: the 14-day RSI is trending higher, and MACD remains firmly in positive territory. Bulls are eyeing resistance at ¥151.00, the October 2022 swing high, and further at ¥152.40, a level tested in late 2023. On the downside, any slip below ¥149.00 could expose the 20-day moving average near ¥148.25, while deeper pullbacks might target ¥147.50 where demand has previously emerged. Still, with Japan’s inflation losing steam and U.S. data consistently surprising to the upside, the bias remains skewed to the upside for now.
Market Sentiment and Trading Flows
Institutional accounts in Tokyo and New York have been adding to long USD/JPY positions on the break above 149.00, according to traders familiar with the flows. Options markets have shown heavy demand for 150.00 strike calls expiring next week, indicating positioning for a breakout. Meanwhile, volatility remains subdued, with one-month implied vol hovering at 9.2%, well below levels seen during past interventions by Japanese authorities. This signals that while risk of official action exists if USD/JPY sustains above 150.00, the market is not yet pricing imminent intervention.
Verdict: Bullish Bias with Near-Term Caution
Given the dovish backdrop in Tokyo, the resilience of U.S. growth, and the repricing of Fed cuts, USD/JPY remains tilted toward further upside. Support at ¥149.00 is critical, and as long as the pair holds above it, the path toward ¥151.00 appears open. Short-term traders should remain alert around today’s U.S. PCE data and subsequent Fed speakers, but the balance of risks suggests dips are likely to be bought. The current structure supports a Buy rating on USD/JPY with targets at ¥151.00 and ¥152.40, while acknowledging the risk of verbal or direct intervention should yen weakness accelerate beyond policymakers’ comfort zone.
Gold (XAU/USD) Hits Historic Highs as Tariffs and Central Bank Buying Accelerate
The price of gold (XAU/USD) has stormed to unprecedented levels, with futures trading at $3,809.60 per ounce, up 1.02% intraday, after opening at $3,781.50. That marks a 45% gain since January, making gold the best-performing asset of 2025, ahead of both the Magnificent 7 tech stocks and Bitcoin (BTC-USD). For the first time in modern history, gold has surpassed its 1980 inflation-adjusted peak, a landmark that underscores just how intense the rush for safety has become amid wars, tariffs, and sticky inflation. Over the past year alone, prices have soared 42% from $2,662 per ounce. On a monthly horizon, gold is up nearly 12% since late August, when it traded near $3,379.
Central Banks Redefine Reserve Strategies and Fuel Demand
The primary driver of the rally has been sovereign demand. Central banks now hold more gold than Treasuries for the first time since 1996, and gold has overtaken the euro as the world’s second-most held reserve asset. Purchases have more than doubled compared to the previous decade. Russia, China, and India continue to accumulate as hedges against dollar dominance, but the standout in 2025 is Poland, which has added 67 tonnes this year, nearly doubling its reserves in three years. This leaves Warsaw holding more bullion than the European Central Bank itself. Unlike previous cycles, many emerging markets are buying directly from domestic miners instead of the OTC market, reducing reliance on U.S. dollars. This structural shift shows governments are determined to build resilience after sanctions on Russia’s reserves in 2022 reshaped attitudes toward financial sovereignty.
Tariff Announcements Push Gold Toward $3,820
Geopolitical catalysts amplified gold’s surge this week. President Trump unveiled fresh tariffs ranging from 25% to 100% on pharmaceuticals, heavy trucks, and furniture imports, effective October 1. Branded pharma drugs face the harshest treatment with a full 100% levy unless manufacturing shifts to U.S. plants. Trucks and furniture will be taxed at 25–50%, while reports suggest chipmakers may also face penalties if production remains offshore. These measures rattled equity markets and underscored gold’s safe-haven status, driving prices from Thursday’s $3,736.90 close to Friday’s intraday high of $3,819.60.
Inflation Data Meets Estimates, Fed Cuts Still on the Table
The rally has coincided with the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, which came in at 2.7% annually and 2.9% core — right on target but the highest in seven months. Monthly gains of 0.3% suggest inflation is not collapsing, but investors still expect rate cuts later this year. The Fed has already priced in at least one more 25 bps reduction, though Danske Bank warned that sticky inflation could pressure policymakers. Yields on the 10-year Treasury sit near 4.18%, while the dollar index is weakening, adding to the bullish environment for gold.
ETF Flows Lag Behind Bitcoin, Signaling More Upside Potential
Despite gold’s record-setting run, ETF flows remain muted compared to crypto. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs account for about 7% of BTC’s total market cap, while gold ETFs represent less than 1% of bullion’s market capitalization. North American gold ETFs just posted their strongest inflows since March 26, but the comparison with crypto suggests room for more institutional adoption. Commodity strategists argue that if ETF allocations to gold rise to even half of Bitcoin’s ratio, another surge beyond $4,000 per ounce becomes plausible.
Technical Analysis: Bulls Eye $3,900 While Support Holds Firm
Technically, December gold futures show strong momentum, with Wyckoff’s Market Rating at 8.5 out of 10. Resistance is set at $3,824.60 and then $3,900, while immediate support lies at $3,749.70 and $3,718.10. A sustained close above $3,800 unlocks the path to retest $3,900, with upside momentum potentially extending to $4,000. On the downside, bears would need to drag futures under $3,650 to regain control, a scenario that currently looks unlikely given both macro support and sovereign demand. Silver (SI=F) is also confirming the metals rally, climbing to $45.35 with a Wyckoff rating of 9.0, and eyeing resistance at $47.50.
Private Investors Join the Cycle Through Retail Channels
Alongside central bank accumulation, private demand is expanding rapidly. Inflows into gold-backed ETFs have accelerated, and retail access points are broadening. Costco (NASDAQ: COST) now sells not just gold bars but also silver and platinum coins, attracting mainstream investors who want convenient exposure. The club retailer’s sales mirror broader sentiment: headlines about record prices are pulling in new buyers, reinforcing the feedback loop that drives gold higher.
Strategic Perspective: Is Gold Still Cheap Against Bitcoin?
Some analysts note that even at $3,800, gold may be undervalued relative to Bitcoin when comparing reserve ratios and ETF penetration. Gold remains under-owned by retail compared to crypto, suggesting that mainstream FOMO has not yet fully arrived. Bank of America’s survey ranks gold the second most crowded trade after the Mag 7, but whether this represents the first inning of institutional participation or the ninth remains contested.
Market Call: Bias Remains Bullish With Caution Near $3,900
With gold futures at $3,809.60 and spot levels near $3,800, the metal has cemented itself as the best-performing major asset of 2025. Central banks are stockpiling, tariffs are escalating, inflation remains elevated, and retail access is broadening. Support zones around $3,750 are holding firm, while technical upside targets point toward $3,900–$4,000. Despite talk of crowded positioning, ETF inflows remain far below crypto’s scale, leaving scope for more buying pressure. Based on the breadth of these catalysts, XAU/USD is a Buy, though traders should expect turbulence around resistance as profit-taking collides with sovereign and institutional demand.
The rally continues to confront resistance between $3,782 and $3,812, where at least five indicators converge. While Friday’s move suggests a continuation of the broader uptrend, momentum is visibly slowing. Price could still extend toward the upper boundary of the zone, but traders are closely watching how gold reacts within this cluster of resistance levels.
Higher Targets if Breakout Sustains
A decisive breakout above $3,812 would open the door to higher projections. The most notable is a 261.8% extension of the large ABCD pattern at $3,896, derived from a harmonic relationship of two rising measured moves. Further up is a confluence zone from $3,982 to $3,998. That would be the next next key target zone, though it remains distant unless bullish momentum strengthens meaningfully.
Signs of Slowing Momentum
Despite price strength, momentum indicators flash caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bearish divergence, with price at new highs but momentum failing to confirm. This divergence, alongside current resistance near the top boundary of a rising trend channel, suggests upside breakouts may struggle to sustain without consolidation.
Short-Term Support Levels
Initial support rests at today’s low of $3,734, followed by the 10-Day moving average at $3,712. More significant is the 20-Day line at $3,650, reinforced by the broader structure of the channel. A drop below these levels would increase the likelihood of a deeper retracement, potentially signaling that gold’s rally has overextended in the short run.
Outlook
For now, the trend remains bullish with buyers holding the upper hand, and the record close this week reflects robust demand. Yet weakening momentum and proximity to key resistance levels warrant caution. Until price either breaks decisively above $3,812 or drops under $3,712, gold’s next directional move remains a contest between sustained buying and the risk of correction.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The $3.35 price level carries added weight given that it coincides with the intersection of two significant trendlines — one rising and one falling. Should the market sustain strength through this zone, attention will naturally shift to the next confluence zone, around the 200-Day moving average at $3.49 and the 127.2% Fibonacci projection of the ABCD pattern at $3.51. The alignment of these levels suggests that if buyers can maintain momentum above $3.35, the path toward $3.49–$3.51 will become increasingly viable.
Moving Averages Signal Improving Demand
Another bullish development was the 20-Day moving average crossing above the 50-Day line, strengthening the short-term trend outlook. A daily close above either the rising or falling trendline near $3.35 would further validate this momentum shift, likely followed by additional signs of growing demand. On the downside, a healthy pullback could see price revisit the cluster of moving averages between $2.98 and $3.00, where the 10-Day, 20-Day, and 50-Day averages converge. That zone now represents a significant support area and could offer the foundation for a renewed leg higher once buyers return.
Weekly Chart Turns Bullish
On the weekly timeframe, natural gas is on track to close above last week’s high of $3.17, establishing a bullish outside week reversal. Importantly, this week’s price range also encompasses the ranges of the prior three weeks, emphasizing the strength of the move and signaling a clear shift in momentum. This type of price action often precedes sustained advances, particularly when accompanied by improving moving average alignment and strengthening channel dynamics.
Outlook
Overall, natural gas is showing early signs of turning the corner. A sustained breakout above $3.35 would not only confirm the rising ABCD pattern but also set the stage for a test of the longer-term resistance zone around $3.49–$3.51. Until then, traders will watch for whether the higher swing low established earlier this week holds, as that would further solidify the bullish reversal narrative.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
GBP/USD Slides to Seven-Week Low as U.S. Data Outpaces U.K. Recovery
The GBP/USD pair has come under sustained selling pressure, dropping to 1.3322 this week, its weakest point in nearly two months, before stabilizing just above 1.3350. The move reflects a sharp 3% decline from the September high at 1.3725 as U.S. economic strength has undercut the case for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, while the Bank of England remains caught between sticky inflation and weakening domestic growth.
Impact of U.S. Growth and Inflation Data on GBP/USD
The second-quarter U.S. GDP revision to 3.8% year-on-year, coupled with weekly jobless claims falling to 218,000 and durable goods orders surging 2.9%, has provided the dollar with renewed momentum. These numbers highlight U.S. economic resilience and have reduced expectations for back-to-back Fed cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, markets await the Core PCE inflation print at 2.9% year-on-year, a figure that could cement the Fed’s cautious stance and extend downside pressure on GBP/USD if it overshoots consensus.
Bank of England Uncertainty Weighs on Sterling
Governor Andrew Bailey has acknowledged that U.K. inflation is on a downward path but linked future easing directly to progress in consumer prices. This hesitancy is complicated by other MPC members, such as Megan Greene, warning against premature cuts amid lingering upside risks. Political noise in London—calls for re-nationalization of utilities and large-scale borrowing schemes—has rattled gilt markets already strained by fragile demand. With households sitting on unusually high savings and labor conditions softening, the pound has struggled to find a solid base against the dollar.
Technical Breakdown of GBP/USD Levels
Technically, GBP/USD’s inability to reclaim 1.3390, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January–July rally, leaves bears in control. A sustained break under 1.3330 risks a slide toward 1.3255, followed by deeper targets at 1.3145 and the 200-day SMA near 1.3130. On the flip side, only a decisive recovery above 1.3470–1.3500, where the 20- and 50-day SMAs converge, would ease bearish momentum and allow a rebound toward 1.3600. Until then, the bias remains skewed to the downside with 1.3300–1.3260 acting as the next key pivot zone.
Short-Term Pound Sterling Outlook Against the Dollar
The stochastic oscillator sitting below 20 suggests the pair is oversold, and price action beneath the lower Bollinger band signals the potential for a short-lived bounce. However, with market structure deteriorating since August’s 1.3139 low and with GBP/USD still capped under the broader 1.3675–1.3720 resistance band, upside moves should be treated as corrective rallies rather than a trend reversal. A failure to sustain above 1.3400 in the coming sessions would quickly put 1.3260 back on the radar.
Final Assessment: Bearish Bias Maintained on GBP/USD
Considering the stronger U.S. macro backdrop, upcoming PCE inflation data, and the Bank of England’s indecisive tone, GBP/USD remains in a bearish setup with high probability of retesting 1.3255–1.3150 in the short term. The pair is oversold enough for tactical rebounds, but with momentum firmly on the dollar’s side, rallies are likely to be capped. Based on current dynamics, the stance remains Sell on GBP/USD, with downside risks dominating until there is evidence of U.S. data softening or the BoE signaling a firmer stance against inflation.
3M Company (MMM) declined in recent intraday trading, breaking below a short-term rising trend line. This drop was accompanied by a move under the 50-day SMA, intensifying the negative pressure on the stock. Additional weakness is evident from bearish signals on the RSI, signaling the beginning of a corrective bearish wave in the near term.
Therefore, we expect the stock to extend its decline in upcoming sessions, as long as resistance holds at 159.00, targeting the first support level at 150.40.
The forex market is more attractive after the September 17th FOMC, but the devil is in the details.
In Today’s forex forecast, I’m sharing trade setups on the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, and XAUUSD.
Remember to scroll down after watching the video for additional comments and annotated charts.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
The DXY followed through on last week’s aggressive bounce from 96.60. That’s the bottom of a 2011 ascending channel I’ve discussed for months.
The September 17th FOMC meeting gave dollar bulls what they needed to defend the 96.60 level. It was a critical moment for the DXY, given the significance of this channel since 2011.
As long as the USD is above that mark on the high time frames, I’ll remain bullish.
Last week, the price managed to push above 97.70, a key benchmark for the price action in October. The level shifts to new support, especially with last week’s close above it.
However, dollar bulls face a critical test next week between 98.60 and 99.00. The 98.60 level has been crucial for the DXY since June, and 99.00 is channel resistance from May.
Some ranging for the DXY between 98.60 and 97.70 seems likely for early next week. Buyers may need to digest last week’s aggressive rally.
If bulls can clear the 99.00 resistance area, resistance levels like 99.35 and the 99.88 imbalance come into play.
Alternatively, a sustained break back below 97.70 would flip the DXY bearish.
I’ll remain bullish on the dollar, given the combination of last week’s close above 97.70 and the 2011 support that held strong in September.
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Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, and XAUUSD (September 29-October 3, 2025) 7
EURUSD Forecast
EURUSD played out nicely for us last week following Wednesday’s breakdown.
I discussed this in Wednesday’s video, noting that a sustained break below the February trend line would be bearish. It also had the potential to open up lower levels.
Sure enough, Wednesday’s session closed below, and the EURUSD hit resistance on Thursday right at the February trend line.
I also discussed in the VIP Discord group how 1.1645 could serve as support for the euro. That’s a 5-week composite point of control for EURUSD.
In other words, it’s where the EURUSD spent the most time in August and early September. Markets have memories, so areas like these often serve as support or resistance.
So far, euro bulls are defending 1.1645 to the pip. However, I’m not convinced that this bounce will be anything more than a relief rally.
There are two buy-side single prints (imbalances) at 1.1722 and 1.1780. Market makers may target these areas next week, but any retest is likely to be a selling opportunity.
Anticipate more ranging from EURUSD next week. Trading what’s on the chart (trading the range) will always be more profitable than trading what you want to happen.
Lastly, remember we have a poor low (unfinished auction) at 1.15643 and a single print at 1.1440. These could also be targeted, but only if the EURUSD drops below 1.1645 on the high time frames.
Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, and XAUUSD (September 29-October 3, 2025) 8
GBPUSD Forecast
GBPUSD is another pair that worked out nicely last week. In the previous Weekly Forex Forecast, I mentioned how the break below 1.3580 looked bearish for the pound.
I also discussed how the 1.3529 single print could offer a short opportunity.
Last Tuesday’s session offered the ideal short entry with a high of 1.3537. That retest triggered a fresh wave of sellers, pushing GBPUSD into the 1.3330 support area.
For now, GBPUSD bulls are defending the September low at 1.3330. But like EURUSD, I’m not convinced that this bounce will be anything more than some relief.
Looking at the market profile for the pound, we have two buy-side single prints that could become a factor next week. The first is 1.3410, and the second is 1.3425.
These levels could serve as “magnets” early next week. Unless, of course, we see the pair tag these levels on Friday, since I’m writing this with several hours left in Friday’s session.
Either way, I expect sellers to defend the 1.3425 region if tested early next week.
Looking lower, we have a couple of poor lows. The first is 1.3282 and the second is 1.3254. Whether these become targets depends on whether GBPUSD sellers can break 1.3330 support next week.
If bulls reclaim 1.3380 on Friday, watch for some relief early next week.
Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, and XAUUSD (September 29-October 3, 2025) 9
USDJPY Forecast
USDJPY broke out last week after nearly two months of sideways chop. I discussed the breakout and a potential trade plan in Thursday’s USDJPY video.
In that video, I mentioned the single prints that could become a factor. USDJPY tagged the 149.51 single print on Friday, but the 148.94 print remains open for business next week.
These levels could serve as key support for USDJPY if we get a pullback next week.
The challenge for bulls is where the DXY is trading. Last week’s retest of 98.60 was a significant moment for the dollar, which is also attracting sellers.
If USDJPY can hold above 148.70, a push higher into 150.23 and potentially 151.20 could be in the cards.
On the other hand, a break below 148.70 would cast a bearish shadow over USDJPY and expose the 147.00 level.
Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, and XAUUSD (September 29-October 3, 2025) 10
NZDUSD Forecast
A few weeks ago, I included NZDUSD in the forecast, noting that the failure at 0.5890 looked bearish. It confirmed the failed breakout, exposing support at 0.5817 and lower.
Fast forward to today, and NZDUSD has accomplished both of those things.
The pair sold off from the 0.5890 region following the September 18th bearish close, and also broke below 0.5817 support last week.
That keeps sellers in control for next week.
However, like many of the major currency pairs, the New Zealand dollar left several imbalances for next week.
The first single print (imbalance) is 0.5785, and the second is 0.5805. I expect market makers to target 0.5785 early next week; however, targeting 0.5805 will be more challenging.
Either way, I like the idea of looking for shorts next week as long as NZDUSD is below 0.5820. Those two imbalances at 0.5785 and 0.5805 could provide another opportunity to go short.
As for downside targets, we have the bottom of the July descending channel. It’s difficult to say where the level comes in, but my bet is on 0.5660.
There’s a 3-month composite point of control from early 2025 sitting at 0.5660. That’s a fancy way of saying NZDUSD spent a lot of time at 0.5660 in Q1, and markets don’t forget.
Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, and XAUUSD (September 29-October 3, 2025) 11
XAUUSD (Gold) Forecast
Gold continued its rally last week following the break above $3,700. Pullbacks continue to be shallow with upside seemingly unlimited.
However, XAUUSD is nearing the top of a weekly channel from 2024. I’ve discussed this pattern several times, and the upper boundary currently sits just above $3,800.
It’s not a reason to be bearish by any means. But it is reason enough to approach fresh longs with caution.
Gold has also left several sell-side imbalances in its way. The closest sits at $3,703.
If we get a deeper pullback from XAUUSD in the coming days, $3,703 could become a target.
However, shorting gold remains a losing battle. Even a pullback from $3,800 (if we get it) would likely offer a buying opportunity rather than justification to get short.
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Weekly Forex Forecast For DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, and XAUUSD (September 29-October 3, 2025) 12
Gold returns to the red below $3,750 early Friday, eyeing US PCE inflation.
US Dollar sits at three-week highs as US economic resilience counters Trump’s fresh tariffs.
Technically, Gold remains a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade but the upcoming US data holds the key.
Gold is back on its corrective journey below $3,750 in Friday’s Asian trades, after having staged a tepid bounce on Thursday. All eyes now remain on the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index due later in the day for a fresh directional impetus.
Will US PCE inflation revive the Gold record rally?
Reduced bets for aggressive interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year offset renewed jitters fuelled by US President Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs, helping the US Dollar (USD) holds its recent uptrend at the expense of Gold.
Encouraging US data released on Thursday highlighted the economic resilience, pouring cold water on aggressive Fed easing expectations.
US Gross Domestic Product rose by an upwardly revised rate of 3.8% from April through June, higher than 3.3% initially reported.
Meanwhile, the Labour Department reported 218,000 seasonally adjusted filings for the week ending September 20, down 14,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised figure and below the consensus estimate of 235,000.
Additionally, Durable Goods Orders rebounded firmly by 2.9% in August versus the previously revised -2.7% and -0.5% expected.
Trump on Thursday announced tariffs of up to 100% on imports of branded and patented pharmaceutical drugs, starting October 1. Trump also slapped 50% tariffs on imports of kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks.
Markets weigh the latest Trump’s tariffs, while gearing up for the critical US PCE inflation data due later this Friday. The data will confirm whether the Fed will remain on track for two rate cuts this year.
The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE Price Index, is expected to rise by 2.9% in August, at the same pace seen in July. The headline annual PCE inflation is set to tick higher to 2.7% in the same period, against July’s 2.6%.
An upside surprise to the core PCE print could bolster the USD rally and weigh further on the non-interest-bearing Gold price. A sudden increase in price pressure could further temper expectations of more Fed cuts.
On the other hand, a softer-than-expected US core PCE reading would be welcomed by the Fed
In the lead-up to the US PCE showdown, the FXStreet Fed Sentiment Index extends its foothold in the hawkish zone, trading near 114 as of writing, up from around 105 levels seen a day ago.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Technically, the bearish pressures seem to have eased a bit as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves out of the extreme overbought region.
The leading indicator currently trades at 71.50, down from 78 levels seen at the start of the week.
If the pullback regains momentum, the initial support is seen at the $3,700 threshold, below which Monday’s low of $3,684 will offer some comfort.
Further down, the $3,650 psychological barrier could come to the rescue of buyers.
On the other hand, buyers need acceptance above the $3,750 psychological level to revive the record rally.
The next topside hurdle is located at the lifetime high of $3,791, followed by the $3,800 barrier.
A sustained and decisive break above the latter could fuel a fresh advance toward the $3,850 psychological level.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
EUR/USD corrects higher following a sharp two-day decline.
The near-term technical outlook doesn’t offer any hints of a reversal.
The US economic calendar will feature PCE inflation data for August.
EUR/USD continued to push lower following Wednesday’s decline and closed deep in negative territory on Thursday. The pair stays relatively quiet in the European session on Friday, while the technical outlook suggests that the bearish bias remains intact.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.03%
-0.01%
-0.04%
0.09%
0.08%
0.17%
0.03%
EUR
0.03%
0.05%
0.05%
0.17%
0.17%
0.27%
0.08%
GBP
0.01%
-0.05%
0.08%
0.13%
0.21%
0.21%
0.00%
JPY
0.04%
-0.05%
-0.08%
0.10%
0.09%
0.18%
-0.08%
CAD
-0.09%
-0.17%
-0.13%
-0.10%
-0.01%
0.11%
-0.13%
AUD
-0.08%
-0.17%
-0.21%
-0.09%
0.01%
0.09%
-0.13%
NZD
-0.17%
-0.27%
-0.21%
-0.18%
-0.11%
-0.09%
-0.10%
CHF
-0.03%
-0.08%
0.00%
0.08%
0.13%
0.13%
0.10%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) gathered strength against its rivals on Thursday as upbeat macroeconomic data releases eased concerns over an economic downturn.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced that it revised the annualized Gross Domestic (GDP) growth for the second quarter to 3.8% from 3.3% in the previous estimate. Other data from the US showed that Durable Goods Orders increased by 2.9% in August, surpassing the market expectation for a decrease of 0.5% by a wide margin, and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 218,000 from 232,000 in the previous week.
Later in the day, the BEA will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation, for August. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in his last public appearance that they were projecting the PCE Price Index and the core PCE Price Index to rise 2.7% and 2.9% on a yearly basis, respectively.
Unless there is a significant surprise in the monthly core PCE Price Index print, which is expected to rise 0.2%, the market reaction is likely to remain muted.
In the meantime, US stock index futures rise about 0.2% in the European morning on Friday. A bullish action in Wall Street could help EUR/USD hold its ground heading into the weekend.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD broke below the lower limit of the ascending regression channel and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart dropped toward 30, reflecting a buildup of bearish momentum. Additionally, EUR/USD closed the last four 4-hour candles below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).
On the downside, 1.1640 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as the first support level before 1.1580 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.1500 (static level, round level). Looking north, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.1690-1.1700 (200-period SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), 1.1750 (100-period SMA) and 1.1770 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).
(This story was corrected on September 26 at 08:38 GMT to say in the first paragraph that the EUR/USD closed deep in negative territory on Thursday, not positive.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
