Bear Flag Status

Tuesday’s initial bear-flag breakdown has produced almost no follow-through yet, but today’s rejection at the flag’s top (10-day MA) keeps bears in control. A drop below today’s $3,964 low triggers a second breakdown signal; confirmation arrives beneath Tuesday’s $3,929 low, with the $3,886 swing low as the next domino.

Primary Support Zone

The 50-day average ($3,867 and rising) converges with the 50% retracement at $3,846, forming the highest-probability bounce zone. Given the sluggish bearish momentum, the 50-day line may climb above the $3,886 swing low before price ever reaches it, tightening the support pocket further.

Deeper Targets if Support Fails

Should $3,846–$3,867 crack, the 61.8% Fibonacci at $3,720 enters play alongside the rising channel centerline—both logical destinations after mid-October’s false bullish breakout above the same channel.

Upside Validation

Bulls reclaim near-term momentum only with a rally back above the 10-day average and today’s $4,020 high. That would open a retest of the 20-day line at $4,083 (last week’s bounce stalled at $4,046, well short of target).

Weekly Inside Week Setup

With two trading days remaining, gold is on track to close as an inside week. Inside weeks following extreme moves routinely precede sharp directional breaks; next week’s resolution above or below this week’s $3,929–$4,020 range will dictate the next swing.

Outlook

Continued chop is expected until the 50-day average and 50% retracement provide support near $3,846–$3,867. That confluence, combined with the false bullish channel breakout in mid-October and the rising channel centerline, marks a high-probability area for a bullish reversal. Failure there targets the 61.8% level at $3,720. On the weekly chart, an inside week setup positions gold for a potential breakout next week. Hold above the recent swing low at $3,886 maintains the broader uptrend; a decisive rally above the 10-day average and $4,020 high targets the 20-day line at $4,083.

For the next couple of months, I’m long only on natural gas. It’s just a matter of trying to get a decent price so that I can step in and start buying. I’ve got no interest in shorting it, like I said, and at least until we get to something like the March or April contract, I’m going to be looking for any dip as a trading signal.

I’d be particularly interested in the $3.60 level, but that is a pretty significant drop from here. Last month, when we opened up the November contract, we gapped higher, rallied pretty significantly, pulled back to fill the gap, and then gapped higher at the open again for the day here on the 20th. We never filled that but then gapped massively when we opened up the December contract.

So, I think we’re going to continue to see that type of behavior. Now all I need to do is see a price that’s worth chasing. I don’t like chasing after a move like we’ve seen here recently, and in fact, last week we had something like a 30% gain. That’s not what prudent traders do.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold price today and prediction reflect a rise above $4,000 per ounce as investors react to a weaker dollar and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The market movement shows how global uncertainty and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts influence gold prices. Analysts predict that gold may continue its upward trend through the year, with potential to reach $4,200 per ounce if monetary policy remains supportive. The gold price today and prediction highlight how economic conditions, employment data, and currency fluctuations are shaping the outlook for the precious metal in the coming months.

Gold price today and prediction – Gold reclaims $4,000 level

Gold price today and prediction show that gold rose above $4,000 per ounce on Thursday. The rise followed a decline in the dollar and concerns over a prolonged U.S. government shutdown that increased worries about the economic outlook.

Spot gold increased 0.7% to $4,011.79 per ounce at 0914 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.7% to $4,021.20 per ounce. Analysts said that the weaker dollar and developments in the Supreme Court case on tariffs supported the movement in gold prices.

Impact of dollar movement and court skepticism

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that Supreme Court skepticism over U.S. tariffs and a weaker dollar were factors driving gold prices. According to Staunovo, while gold prices may consolidate in the short term, further Federal Reserve rate cuts could push gold to $4,200 per ounce by the end of the year.

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.2% after reaching a four-month high in the previous session. A weaker dollar usually supports gold because it becomes cheaper for investors holding other currencies.

On Wednesday, U.S. Supreme Court justices raised doubts about the legality of President Donald Trump’s broad tariffs. The case carries global economic implications and could affect trade sentiment.

Economic indicators and U.S. labor data

Gold price today and prediction are also influenced by recent U.S. labor market data. According to the ADP report released Wednesday, U.S. private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing the forecast of 28,000. The stronger labor market could reduce expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. government remains in a record-long shutdown due to a congressional impasse. This situation has forced investors and the Federal Reserve to rely on private-sector indicators for economic assessment.

The Fed reduced interest rates last week, but Chair Jerome Powell indicated it might be the last rate cut for 2025.

Gold Market outlook and investor sentiment

Market participants currently see a 63% chance of a rate cut in December, down from more than 90% last week. Gold, which does not yield interest, tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments.

Analysts believe that continued uncertainty in U.S. politics, along with potential policy decisions, will influence the metal’s performance through the rest of the year.

European stocks also moved lower, led by losses in France’s Legrand after it missed sales growth expectations. The decline added pressure to markets already concerned about high valuations in technology-related companies.

Precious metals performance – spot silver, platinum and palladium

Spot silver rose 1.4% to $48.74 per ounce. Platinum increased 0.4% to $1,567.01, while palladium gained 1.1% to $1,434.22. The movement in other metals reflected similar trends as investors sought safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty.

Gold price today and prediction – Year-end outlook

Analysts expect gold prices to remain supported in the coming months as investors watch for signs of additional rate cuts. If the dollar weakens further and economic risks persist, gold could approach the $4,200 level forecasted by UBS.

Investors are likely to monitor U.S. employment data, inflation figures, and any developments in the government shutdown to gauge the direction of gold prices in the short term.

FAQs

1. What is the gold price today and prediction for the year-end?
Gold price today stands above $4,000 per ounce. Analysts expect it may reach $4,200 per ounce by year-end if the Federal Reserve continues rate cuts.

2. How does the dollar affect gold price today and prediction?
A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. This usually supports higher demand and pushes the gold price up in the market.