– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Rate Today: GBP/EUR Flat After UK CPI

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate traded slightly higher on Wednesday as the UK published its latest inflation data for August.

At the time of writing, the GBP/EUR was trading at around €1.1517, virtually flat from Wednesday’s opening levels.

The Pound (GBP) held its ground against most major peers after the release of the UK’s latest consumer price index (CPI).

Headline CPI matched forecasts at 3.8%, while core inflation eased slightly from 3.8% to 3.6%. The data highlighted the persistence of above-target price pressures, offering Sterling some support ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision on Thursday.

With inflation still proving sticky, the report did little to bolster expectations for near-term rate cuts. As a result, GBP exchange rates found modest support throughout Wednesday’s European session.

The Euro (EUR) was broadly directionless on Wednesday, holding steady against some peers but slipping against others.

With no major Eurozone data releases to provide direction, the single currency lacked clear momentum and struggled to attract support. A speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde offered little reprieve, as she avoided addressing monetary policy. In the absence of fresh signals, EUR exchange rates were left to drift through mid-week trade.

Looking to Thursday’s European session, the Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is set to be guided by the Bank of England’s (BoE) latest interest rate decision.

The BoE is widely forecast to keep rates unchanged at 4.00%, a move that could lend Sterling some stability in the latter part of the week. Should policymakers strike a hawkish tone in their commentary, GBP may gain additional traction against its peers.

For the Euro, attention will turn to another speech from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. If she chooses to address the bloc’s monetary policy outlook, her remarks could inject fresh volatility into EUR exchange rates as the week unfolds.

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price News, Forecast: GBP Higher Ahead of FED Rate Cut

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate dipped slightly on Wednesday, consolidating below the previous day’s peak as investors turned cautious ahead of key central bank announcements.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3649, easing back from Tuesday’s ten-week high of $1.3668.

The Pound (GBP) held steady after the UK’s August consumer price index came in exactly as anticipated, offering investors little fresh direction.

Headline inflation remained at 3.8%, while core inflation ticked lower from 3.8% to 3.6%. The figures broadly matched market expectations, meaning they are unlikely to sway policymakers at the Bank of England (BoE). With little new information for traders to act on, Sterling traded quietly as attention shifted to the central bank’s upcoming policy announcement.

The US Dollar (USD) inched higher on Wednesday, recovering slightly from the previous day’s steep losses as bargain hunters moved in.

The ‘Greenback’ had slumped after Stephen Miran, a close ally of President Donald Trump, was confirmed by the Senate to join the Federal Reserve’s board of governors ahead of this week’s policy meeting. With Trump having repeatedly urged the Fed to deliver sharper rate cuts, Miran’s appointment stoked expectations of a more dovish stance and reignited fears over the central bank’s independence. This sent USD tumbling to a ten-week low against GBP.

By Wednesday morning, the Dollar had managed to edge away from its weakest levels, though trading remained subdued with investors reluctant to make bold moves before the Fed’s policy announcement.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Outlook: Fed and BoE in the Spotlight

Looking ahead, the Pound US Dollar exchange rate could push to fresh multi-month highs as both the Federal Reserve and Bank of England deliver their latest policy decisions.

Attention first turns to the Fed, where markets have already fully priced in a 25bps rate cut. The real focus will be on forward guidance – any signals of a deeper or faster rate-cutting cycle could drive the US Dollar lower. There is also a slim possibility of a 50bps cut, which, while unlikely, would likely trigger heavy losses for the ‘Greenback’.

The BoE’s announcement follows on Thursday. Policymakers are widely expected to keep rates steady, with UK inflation still running at nearly twice the central bank’s 2% target. Should the BoE push back against expectations of further cuts in 2025, the Pound could climb sharply, bolstering GBP/USD.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on September 17, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bullish.
• Support Levels: 1.1810 – 1.1770 – 1.1690
• Resistance Levels: 1.1890 – 1.1970 – 1.2050

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1960, with a target of 1.1700 and a stop-loss at 1.2070.
• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1700, with a target of 1.1880 and a stop-loss at 1.1630.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

The persistent weakness of the U.S. dollar, ahead of the U.S. interest rate cut announcement later today, has helped the EUR/USD bulls quickly push the pair to the 1.1878 resistance level—its highest point in four years—with a daily gain of nearly 1%. The euro’s gains were also fueled by investor optimism that exceeded expectations in both the Eurozone and Germany, alongside a generally weak U.S. dollar as the Federal Reserve prepares to resume its rate cuts later today, Wednesday, at 9:00 PM, Egypt time.

Overall, financial markets widely expect the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points, as policymakers assess a slowing labor market in the face of persistent inflationary pressures caused by tariffs.

In contrast, European officials continue to emphasize caution on inflation. In this context, Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB’s Executive Board, has urged policymakers to “hold their ground,” warning that risks ranging from tariffs and services inflation to food prices and fiscal policy remain significant. Peter Kazimir, Governor of the Slovakian Central Bank, echoed this view, warning that ignoring these risks “would be a mistake.” Last week, the ECB kept borrowing costs unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, suggesting that its rate-cutting cycle may have ended.

Will the EUR/USD rise to 1.20 today?

Amid a solid bullish trend in recent trading sessions, forex experts have expressed a bullish outlook for the EUR/USD’s future. Forex analysts at Scotiabank are targeting multi-year highs, while ING Bank expects the EUR/USD exchange rate to reach the psychological peak of 1.20 within three months.

According to reliable trading platforms, the EUR/USD exchange rate made new gains at the start of this week’s trading as the U.S. dollar remained on the defensive, while the French credit rating downgrade had little effect on the euro’s price. Technically, a break of the early July high at 1.1830 would lead to a new 4-year high. Its recent gains have pushed the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) toward a reading of 64, which confirms the bullish outlook. At the same time, the MACD lines are moving steadily upward, and the technical indicators have room for stronger gains before reaching overbought territory.

Trading Tips:

Traders are advised to be patient and wait for the currency markets’ reaction to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s announcement today, which may determine the direction of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, especially the euro.

EUR/USD Bullish Scenario: The renewed uptrend prompts us to anticipate a break of Tuesday’s high of 1.17, targeting 1.18, followed by a potential rally to multi-year highs. Then, a rally to the psychological resistance of 1.20 over a period of three months or more. The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on Wednesday. There is a strong expectation that the US central bank will cut interest rates, with markets expecting a 25 basis point cut by approximately 95%, with a small probability of a larger 50 basis point cut. Also, the Fed will release its latest set of economic forecasts, with a primary focus on the committee’s interest rate forecasts. To influence currency markets, Powell will need to provide explicit hints about future US interest rate cuts. If the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) makes a significant 50 basis point rate cut, it could also lead to a significant decline in the value of the US dollar, unless he indicates limited scope for further cuts.

However, there remains uncertainty over whether Trump’s nominee for Fed chair, Merrill Lynch, will be confirmed by the Senate in time for the meeting, which begins Tuesday.

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• The GBP/USD price analysis shows the pound steady against the dollar.
• Data on Wednesday revealed that inflation in the UK remained high at 3.8% in August.
• Market participants are anticipating a more dovish Fed.

The GBP/USD price analysis shows the pound steady against the dollar as UK inflation remains high. Market participants expect Bank of England policymakers to keep rates unchanged this week. Meanwhile, the dollar continued its drop ahead of the FOMC meeting, where policymakers will likely cut rates by 25-bps.

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Data on Wednesday revealed that inflation in the UK remained high at 3.8% in August. The figure came in line with expectations and solidified the view that the BoE will be cautious at this week’s meeting. At the same time, market participants expect only one rate cut before the year ends.

“In line inflation print is unlikely to move the needle on the BoE’s interest rates decision tomorrow,” said Emma Mogford, fund manager at Premier Miton Monthly Income Fund.

“Consumers and businesses will have to wait a bit longer for an interest rate cut.”

On the other hand, markets are anticipating a more dovish Fed. Recent employment figures have increased expectations for rate cuts this year, weighing on the dollar. Even upbeat retail sales data in the previous session could not dampen these expectations. If the Fed delivers a less dovish meeting, he greenback could recover. On the other hand, unexpected dovishness would allow the pound to extend its rally.

GBP/USD key events today

GBP/USD technical price analysis: Eyeing 1.3700 after key resistance breakout

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price recently broke above the 1.3575 key resistance level, solidifying the bullish bias. Currently, it trades well above the SMA, with the RSI near the overbought region. At the same time, the price has made a higher high, developing the pattern of a bullish trend.

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Previously, the price had struggled to break above the 1.3575 level. However, after several attempts, bulls broke above and are aiming for the next resistance at the 1.3700 level. Before the price reaches this level, however, it could pull back to retest the recently broken resistance. At the same time, a pullback would allow GBP/USD to retest the 30-SMA before climbing higher.

A break above the 1.3700 resistance would strengthen the bullish bias. Moreover, the trend would continue as long as the price stays above the 30-SMA and the RSI is above 50.

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• Fed cuts weigh on the dollar as markets price in a 25 bps move, narrowing the U.S.–Japan yield gap.
• BOJ tightening expectations build, with potential hikes later this year reinforcing yen demand.
• Technical outlook turns bearish, with rejection at 147.90 and downside targets at 146.20–145.50 unless buyers reclaim 147.20.

The dollar–yen pair has been hovering in a tight range between ¥147 and ¥149 as traders position for the next round of central bank decisions. Momentum has slowed, but the underlying drivers remain clear: the U.S. Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates while the Bank of Japan is edging toward further tightening.

Fed decision in focus

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, with the real test lying in Jerome Powell’s forward guidance. Investors want clarity on whether this is the start of a series of cuts or just a cautious adjustment.

A more dovish tone from the Fed could weigh on Treasury yields and deepen dollar weakness, opening the door for yen gains. On the other hand, if Powell stresses that inflation risks remain elevated and signals a slower path of easing, the dollar may hold its ground.

Bank of Japan’s policy path

While the BOJ is not expected to raise rates at its next meeting, markets are increasingly pricing in another hike later this year—potentially lifting short-term rates from 0.50% to 0.75%. Inflation in Japan is running above the BOJ’s 2% target, and the yen’s prolonged weakness has amplified imported price pressures.

Officials face growing pressure to gradually narrow the gap with U.S. policy rates. Any confirmation of further tightening from Tokyo would reinforce demand for the yen.

The interest rate differential

USD/JPY is largely driven by the spread between U.S. and Japanese interest rates. When the U.S. offers higher yields, the dollar benefits as capital flows toward dollar-denominated assets. Now that the Fed is moving toward cuts while the BOJ hints at more hikes, the gap is narrowing. This shift is one of the main reasons why USD/JPY has stalled and is vulnerable to downside pressure if U.S. yields continue to soften.

Technical outlook

USD/JPY had been consolidating under the 147.50–147.90 resistance zone, which aligned with a bearish H4 Fair Value Gap. Ahead of the Fed decision, the market had already priced in a 25 bps rate cut, limiting upside potential for the dollar. That meant any rally into this supply zone was vulnerable to rejection.

Before

Leading into the event, USD/JPY attempted to reclaim higher ground but repeatedly stalled inside the Fair Value Gap. The inability to break above 147.90 signaled that sellers were defending the zone, anticipating the narrowing interest rate differential as the Fed eases policy and the BOJ leans hawkish.

After

Once the market confirmed dovish positioning, the rejection materialized. Price rolled over sharply from the Fair Value Gap, breaking back below 147.00 and extending toward 146.57 and 146.21. This move validated the bearish setup and showed how expectations of Fed cuts—already embedded into positioning—helped fuel the downside momentum.

Bullish scenario: Recovery from demand

• Price holds above 146.20–146.57 support and reclaims the blue zone with momentum.
• A clean move through 147.00 shifts structure back to the upside.
• If sustained, upside opens to retest 147.50–147.90 (Fair Value Gap) with extension toward 148.50–149.35 if Fed commentary turns less dovish than expected.

Trigger/invalidation:

• Bullish bias confirmed on reclaim of 147.00 and acceptance above 147.20.
• Invalidation if price closes below 146.00, putting pressure back on the downside.

Bearish scenario: Continuation through lows

• Price retests the blue zone supply (~146.80–147.00) but fails to reclaim above it.
• Sellers defend the zone, leading to another leg lower.
• Break below 146.20 confirms continuation, opening targets toward 145.50 and possibly 144.00 if U.S. yields soften further and BOJ tightening expectations remain intact.

Trigger/Invalidation:

• Bearish bias holds below 147.00.
• Invalidation if H4 closes above 147.20, which would suggest buyers are regaining control.

Created on September 17, 2025

• The Euro has rallied significantly in the early hours here on Tuesday as it looks like we are trying to break the 1.18 level for a bigger move.
• All things being equal, this is a situation where traders will continue to see a lot of hesitation in this area so we’ll have to wait and see if we can truly break to a fresh high which would be closer to the 1.1835 level.
• If we do, you’re not out of the woods quite yet because you have the Wednesday interest rate decision that will have a major influence on what happens next.

With that being said, I think you’ve got a situation where a lot of traders are going to be very cautious, mainly due to the idea that the Federal Reserve announcement, while expected to be a rate cut, may have people worrying about the global economy. We’ll just see how nervous they are. If they’re a little too nervous, that actually is pro-dollar.

It will have people running to the bond market, which of course takes dollars. We’ll just have to wait and see in the short term; it certainly looks like you can’t sell this pair. And I really don’t know how much clarity you have until the end of the Wednesday session.

Be Careful

That’s the main reason I’m doing the analysis on this pair here, because I know there are a lot of people watching this and it’s getting very bullish, but the market already knows there’s a rate cut. It’s the statement and the reaction to the press conference end statement that you will have to watch. If we do pull back, I don’t suggest that you should be selling this pair either. But it would not surprise me at all later this day, on Tuesday, to see this market pull back into the consolidation area we had been in.

If we do continue higher, the measured move is for the 1.20 level to be targeted. If we break down the 1.16 level and the 50 day EMA both should be significant support. Again, the market knows the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates, but they sound even mildly hawkish or concerned about the future. That’s going to catch a lot of traders on the wrong side of this market.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.