The U.S. Dollar Index has almost reached 99.20 on the 4-hour chart as it has recovered from the 98.56 low and gone back above the 50-EMA, which is at 99.16, although the price is still below the 100-EMA and is still below the descending trendline, so the bullish structure on a short-term basis is still not fully in play.

The 99.25 pivot level is an important zone. This is close to the 61.8% Fibonacci level and is at 99.25. If this level is broken and successfully held above it, then the extension of the bullish structure would bring the price to at least 99.48, where it would then extend to 99.68 and 99.99. The next significant level would be 100.38, beyond which there is a clear price extension. If the price is not able to hold above this level, then 99.12 and 98.99, 98.82 and 98.56 would be the next support levels.

The RSI at this point is at 57 and is showing a bullish bias for the recovery and price structure. In my opinion, this is a critical level for the U.S. Dollar Index from a price structure point of view. A confirmed break above 99.25 and the descending trendline would suggest that a bullish structure is more likely, and a move back toward 98.99 to 98.82, with price extending below the trendline is likely.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pound Breaks Channel Support as 1.3565 Becomes Critical

2026.08.28 2026.08.28
GBP/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 28.08.26–04.09.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 1.3516 with a target of 1.3870–1.4140. A buy signal: the price holds above 1.3516. Stop Loss: below 1.3470, Take Profit: 1.3870–1.4140.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 1.3516 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3275–1.3140. A sell signal: the level of 1.3516 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 1.3560, Take Profit: 1.3275–1.3140.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 1.3516 with a target of 1.3870–1.4140.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 1.3516 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3275–1.3140.

Analysis

On the weekly time frame, an ascending wave of larger degree (A) of B is developing. Within it, wave 1 of (A) has formed, a downward correction has been completed as wave 2 of (A), and the third wave 3 of (А) is unfolding. Apparently, the third wave iii of 3 is developing on the daily time frame, within which a local correction has formed as wave (ii) of iii. Wave (iii) of iii is developing on the H4 chart, with wave iii of (iii) unfolding as its part. If the presumption is correct, GBP/USD will continue to rise to 1.3870–1.4140. The level of 1.3516 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3275–1.3140.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode

Created on August 28, 2026

Potential signal:

• I am buying – again – above the 160 yen level to add to my already long position.
• I would have a stop for this part at 159, and look for 163 above.
• The interest rate differential continues to be in focus in this pair, as we wait for the speech at Jackson Hole from Chairman Kevin Warsh.

USD/JPY

The US dollar has gone back and forth against the Japanese yen during trading on Thursday, which does make a certain amount of sense considering that Friday features a speech by Kevin Warsh, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, coming out of Jackson Hole. That could have people trying to determine whether or not the Fed is going to raise rates later this year.

The interest rate differential between these 2 currencies continues to be a major driver of where we are, and I do like buying the dollar against the yen. The question, of course, is going to be whether or not we remain hawkish in the United States or if that starts to disappear. Most traders are betting that we are not raising by the end of the year, but then the question becomes: is the interest rate differential going to shrink enough to get the carry trade out of vogue? And my answer, at least right now, is no.

Carry Trade Viability and Intervention Dynamics

The 160 yen level is an area that’s a bit of a barrier, and if we clear that, then I think that would be a very straightforward repudiation of the idea of killing off the carry trade, at least in the short term. Yes, the Bank of Japan has intervened 3 times now, but generally speaking, all that does is slow down a move; it very rarely reverses a trend. And that is basically a function of not wanting the currency to depreciate too quickly. It’s not even that it’s depreciating; it’s that it did it way too rapidly.

Since we’ve had that intervention, the market has been pressing against the Bank of Japan and the US Treasury Department. This is a trade that I’m still in, at least for now. I’ve been collecting swap for months. That sell-off a couple of weeks ago was pretty brutal, but at the end of the day, if you are positioned correctly and with the correct size, you can take advantage of this. If we break above 160 yen, I’ll probably add.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

The EUR/USD pair pulled back in the last full week of August, settling a handful of pips below the 1.1600 mark. The US Dollar (USD) was able to post a comeback after suffering steady losses throughout the month, exacerbated by the United States (US) Department of the Treasury announcement of increased long-bond buybacks on August 19. The recovery that followed the sell-off seems corrective as the pair holds far above the monthly low at 1.1350, yet closer to the peak at 1.1710.

The Middle East war was the main factor behind USD strength between March and July as the conflict pushed energy prices much higher, bringing mounting inflationary pressure back to the fore and, in turn, potentially tighter monetary policies around the globe.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh debuted as the Fed’s head, pledging to tame inflation. So far, his words have outpaced his actions. Despite inflation almost doubling the Fed’s goal, Warsh and co. kept interest rates on hold. It’s not actually a surprise if we consider that US President Donald Trump spent most of his latest mandate demanding lower interest rates from former Chair Jerome Powell.

Sentiment shift amid uncertainty

The Middle East war continues, but the USD lost its crown as preferred safe-haven as investors dropped bets of higher interest rates in the US. At this point, it is unlikely the Fed will hike rates in September. What’s so terrible about the Fed holding rates? It’s not about the Fed holding rates steady but about almost all major economies having already pulled the trigger more than once. Most major central banks have already delivered rate hikes, and more than one, since the year started. The Fed’s hesitation is not related to macroeconomic data but to a potential clash with President Trump.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday and said that they must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward the objective, adding that they have work to do otherwise. The US Dollar found some near-term demand with his hawkish words as the odds for an interest rate hike in September increased from roughly 35% on Thursday to 45.7%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Beyond the continued tensions that keep Oil prices elevated, market participants now have another source of concern. US President Donald Trump abruptly ended trade talks with Canada and imposed fresh levies on the country of around $20 billion. However, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney quickly responded by enacting retaliatory tariffs of the same amount.

Hawkish hopes may boost USD demand, but uncertainty is putting a cap on it.

No bad news is good news

US data released throughout the week came in line with expectations, easing pressure on the Greenback. The market saw as good news the fact that the news was not as bad as feared. The US published the first revision of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which confirmed annualized growth at 1.5% in the three months to June, as previously estimated.

The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, remained unchanged at 3.7% YoY in July, although slightly above the expected 3.6%. The core PCE Price Index for the same period held steady at 3.3%, as anticipated. Finally on Friday, the country published the Nonfarm Payrolls annual revision of the twelve months to March 2026. The number of new jobs was revised downward by 79,000, or 0.1%.

The European macroeconomic calendar offered nothing relevant but will become more interesting in the coming days. Germany will publish the preliminary estimates of the August Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) on Monday, while the EU will release the HICP on Tuesday. Annualized inflation, as measured by the HICP, is foreseen at 3.2% following the 2.9% posted in July, while the core annual HICP is expected to remain unchanged at 2.5%. Other than that, the EU will publish July Retail Sales while Germany will unveil July Factory Orders on Friday.

The US macroeconomic calendar will also be interesting. The country will publish the August ISM Services and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs) and multiple employment figures, closing on Friday with the August Nonfarm Payrolls report that is expected to show the economy added 45,000 new job positions in the month after losing 23,000 in July.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook:

The daily chart shows EUR/USD is losing its positive tone, as the pair is struggling to hold the 1.1600 mark and is barely above the 20- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 1.1591 and 1.1573, and remains capped by the 200-day SMA at 1.1633. The Momentum indicator eases within positive levels and nears its midline from above, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads south almost vertically and now sits near 54, hinting at buying interest giving up.

In the weekly chart, EUR/USD retains a modest bullish bias as it remains above the 20-week SMA at 1.1571, with the longer-term 100- and 200-week SMAs at 1.1330 and 1.1067 reinforcing an underlying supportive structure. The RSI indicator sits near a neutral 51, while the slightly negative Momentum hints that upside traction continues to vanish.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day SMA near 1.1591, with the 100-day SMA at 1.1573 reinforcing a broader demand zone on pullbacks. On the topside, the 200-day SMA at 1.1633 is the next key resistance, followed by recent tops in the 1.1710 level. Only a clear advance beyond the latter would revive the bullish trend and open the door for an extension towards 1.1800.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The GBPJPY pair kept facing stochastic negativity by forming some bullish waves, to keep its stability above the initial support at 216.35 level, the sideways trading might continue until gaining the required bullish momentum for putting pressure on 217.85 obstacle, to find an exit for resuming the bullish trend in the upcoming trading.

Facing new negative pressures by reaching below 216.35 will increase the chances of forming bearish corrective waves, forcing it to suffer some losses by reaching 215.85 and 215.55 gradually before any new attempt to achieve the previously suggested positive targets.

The expected trading range for today is between 216.10 and 217.85

Trend forecast: Bullish