A decisive rally through the $3,675 record high would open the way toward higher targets. The first notable objective sits at $3,734, marked by a 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Beyond that, a key confluence zone comes into play from $3,782 to $3,812. This zone is supported by several overlapping measures, including the symmetrical triangle breakout projection at $3,786, lending greater significance to the area. The strong, low-pullback rally from the triangle breakout further supports the potential for an extension higher.
Risks of a Pullback
On the downside, a decisive decline below Thursday’s low of $3,613 could signal the start of a deeper pullback. Initial support would be seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around $3,537, while the prior trend high at $3,500 represents another key level. Below that, a broader support zone stretches from $3,451 to $3,439, aligned with the 61.8% retracement near $3,452. While a test of these lower levels would not negate the broader bullish trend, it would represent the first deeper retracement since the breakout and would be closely watched as a potential reentry point.
Bigger Picture Remains Bullish
Gold’s sharp $543 rally (18.4%) from the $3,311 swing low prior to the triangle base shows the kind of momentum still in play. A measured move of similar magnitude from the breakout suggests a potential longer-term target closer to $3,966. Even in the short term, the ability to close this week in the upper third of the range, above $3,642, highlights strong demand. The evidence continues to point toward buyers retaining control and higher targets remaining in sight.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Silver consolidates near $41.00 as traders await the key US CPI report.
A stronger CPI print may fuel Dollar strength and weigh on precious metals, while softer data would reinforce Fed rate cut bets.
Technical signals show bearish RSI divergence, with $40.50 as key support and $41.50 as immediate resistance.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades under mild pressure on Thursday as a firm US Dollar (USD) keeps the white metal subdued ahead of the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is consolidating around $41.00, pausing after marking a fresh 14-year peak around $41.67 earlier this week.
All eyes are on the August US CPI report due at 12:30 GMT, which is expected to provide the final policy cue before next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
Headline inflation is expected to pick up modestly, rising 0.3% on the month and pushing the annual rate to 2.9%, while core CPI is seen steady at 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY.
A stronger-than-expected print could fuel the US Dollar’s rebound and lift Treasury yields, pressuring precious metals in the short term. Conversely, a softer reading would bolster expectations for a Fed interest rate cut at next week’s meeting, offering renewed support to Silver. Lower borrowing costs reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver, keeping the broader bullish tone intact.
From a technical perspective, Silver has been consolidating within a tight $41.50–$40.50 range since early September. On the daily chart, a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to fading upside momentum, while the flattening Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram signals weakening bullish pressure.
Immediate support lies at $40.50, with a break below exposing the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $39.52. On the upside, a sustained move above $41.50 would reduce the significance of the divergence and open the door toward the $42.00 psychological barrier and beyond.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The GBP/USD exchange rate held steady as investors reacted to the latest UK inflation expectation and GDP numbers. It was trading at 1.3537, as focus now shifts to the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. It has risen by about 12% above the lowest level this year.
UK publishes GDP and inflation data
The GBP/USD exchange rate remained unchanged after the UK published relatively weak economic numbers. A report by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) showed that the economy stagnated in July after growing by 0.4% in the previous month.
Another report revealed that the country’s manufacturing production dropped by 1.3% after growing by 0.5% in the previous period. Further, the industrial production softened by 0.9%, down from an expansion of 0.7% in the previous month.
Meanwhile, UK household inflation expectations continued soaring in a major setback for the Bank of England.
A report by the BoE found that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise to 3.6% in the next 12 months, up from the previous atr3.2%. These expectations are the highest they have been since 2019. In a note, Robert Wood, an analyst from Pantheon Macroeconomics, said:
“Inflation running nearly double the target and households expecting that to continue poses a trickier backdrop for the crucial pay settlements period later this year than we saw in 2024.”
Therefore, there are concerns that the UK is currently in a stagflation period, which is characterized by high inflation and slow economic growth. It is normally a central bank’s worst nightmare since interest rate hikes to lower interest rates would affect economic growth.
Therefore, economists expect that the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged next week.
Federal Reserve interest rate cuts ahead
The GBP/USD exchange rate also reacted to the latest consumer and producer inflation data.
A report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped from 3.1% to 2.6%, while the core PPI moved from 3.4% to 2.8%.
Meanwhile, another report by the BLS showed that the headline CPI rose from 2.7% to 2.9%, while the core CPI remained unchanged at 3.1%.
These numbers came a week after data showed that the economy created just 22,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. Still, analysts expect the Fed will cut interest by 0.25% in its next meeting.
“On the face of it, this hints at a pick-up in the pace of lay-offs in an environment of already weak hiring and will re-affirm expectations of a 25bp Fed rate cut next week.”
GBP/USD technical analysis
GBP/USD chart | Source: TradingView
The daily timeframe chart shows that the GBP/USD pair rose from a low of 1.2102 in January to 1.3535 today. It has moved above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at 1.3395.
The pair has moved above the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), a sign that bulls are in control. It has formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.
Therefore, the pair will likely have a bullish breakout, potentially to the year-to-date high of 1.3795, up by about 1.92% from the current level.
The EURJPY pair succeeded in facing stochastic negativity by its stability above 172.00 level yesterday, to form some of the bullish waves to approach from the barrier at 173.50, forming an obstacle against the attempts of resuming the bullish attack.
To confirm the attempts of resuming the bullish attack, we recommend waiting for breaching the barrier and providing positive close above it, to increase the chances for recording extra gains that might extend to 174.25 reaching 1.809%Fibonacci extension level at 175.20, while the price failure to breach this level will force it to provide more of the sideways trading, and there is a new chance to decline towards 171.60.
The expected trading range for today is between 172.60 and 174.25
GameStop Corporation (GME) stock extended its gains in its latest intraday trading, successfully breaking above the key resistance level of 24.50. This significantly increases the chances of extending the short-term corrective bullish trend, especially with the stock continuing to trade above its previous 50-day SMA, which provides renewed positive momentum. Additional support comes from positive signals in the Stochastic indicators, despite being in strongly overbought territory.
High-risk warning: GME belongs to the so-called “meme stocks,” which are characterized by extreme speculative trading. As a result, the stock’s movement often deviates from technical expectations or financial reports and can sometimes be highly unpredictable.
Therefore, we expect the stock to rise in its upcoming trading, provided it confirms the breakout of the mentioned resistance at 24.50 and holds above it, to then target its next resistance at 28.40.
The GBP/USD price analysis shows market focus returning to the looming Fed rate cut.
Data on Thursday revealed that US consumer inflation increased by 0.4%.
US unemployment claims jumped to 263,000, well above estimates of 235,000.
The GBP/USD price analysis shows the pound recovering as focus returns to the looming Fed rate cut. The sterling had dropped in the previous session as the US dollar rose after upbeat inflation figures. However, unemployment claims data raised more alarm about the labor market, solidifying bets for a rate cut.
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The dollar rose after data on Thursday revealed that US consumer inflation increased by 0.4%, compared to the forecast of 0.3%. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, inflation increased by 2.9% as expected. Though the numbers pointed to accelerating price pressures, it was not enough to dampen Fed rate cuts.
Meanwhile, unemployment claims jumped to 263,000, well above estimates of 235,000. The number highlighted the rising unemployment, putting pressure on the Fed to lower rates.
Elsewhere, traders are still focused on the UK’s fiscal health, with the next budget coming at the end of November. Another bond market turmoil could weaken sterling.
“Rising government borrowing costs, in the form of higher yields on its bonds, or gilts, mean Rachel Reeves will want to put together a tax-and-spending plan that appeases bond vigilantes,” Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director, said in a note.
GBP/USD key events today
Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations
GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bulls struggle to confirm channel breakout
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has pulled back to retest he recently broken channel resistance. Moreover, bulls are struggling to make a new high that would confirm the breakout. The price has pulled back to retest the 30-SMA, and the RSI trades above 50, supporting bullish momentum. However, bulls are facing solid resistance at the 1.3575 level.
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Previously, GBP/USD was trading in a bearish channel, making lower highs and lows. However, this changed when there was a surge in bullish momentum that allowed the price to break above the channel resistance. As a result, it made a higher high, breaking the previous pattern.
However, bulls must now break above the 1.3575 resistance to confirm the channel breakout and start a bullish trend. On the other hand, if the resistance holds firm, bears might regain enough momentum to push the price below the 30-SMA and back into the channel.
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Gold (XAU/USD) Surges Toward $3,700 as Fed Cut Bets, Dollar Weakness, and Central Bank Demand Align
XAU/USD Pushes to Fresh Highs With Inflation Pressures and Weak Labor Market
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to press record territory, trading around $3,685 per ounce after reaching an intraday high of $3,695.50. Spot prices climbed 40% year-to-date, making 2025 one of the strongest years in decades for bullion. August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% annually, while jobless claims surged to 263,000 — the highest since 2021 — fueling stagflation concerns. Nonfarm payroll growth slowed to just 22,000, while unemployment rose to 4.3%. This macro backdrop has investors nearly fully pricing a 25 bps rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, with a 7% chance of a larger 50 bps cut. Historically, easing cycles have provided powerful support for non-yielding assets like gold.
Forecasts Climb as UBS and Commerzbank Lift Targets
Major institutions have raised price projections. UBS now expects gold to reach $3,800/oz by year-end and $3,900/oz by mid-2026, citing a 200-basis-point Fed easing cycle and a weaker dollar. Commerzbank also raised its end-2026 target to $3,800, up from $3,600. Goldman Sachs is more aggressive, suggesting a base case of $4,000 by mid-2026 and even a $4,500–$5,000 tail scenario if U.S. political pressures undermine Fed independence. The investment bank notes that if just 1% of privately held Treasuries were reallocated into bullion, it could drive the next leg higher. Analysts emphasize that unlike the volatile spike of 1980 — when gold peaked at $850 ($3,590 inflation-adjusted) — today’s surge is supported by deeper liquidity, ETFs, and institutional allocations.
ETF Holdings and Central Bank Purchases Reinforce Structural Demand
ETF flows are approaching historic records, with total holdings forecast to exceed 3,900 metric tons by the end of 2025, nearly touching the all-time high of 3,915 tons from October 2020. Weekly inflows have already surpassed 700 tons this year, marking one of the most aggressive institutional accumulation phases on record. Central banks remain net buyers at roughly 900–950 tons in 2025, slightly below last year’s record 1,000 tons. This ongoing official sector demand reflects geopolitical hedging, especially in emerging markets diversifying away from the dollar. The total value of London vault reserves surpassed $1 trillion last month, showing how institutions continue to build long-term gold positions.
Dollar Weakness and Falling Real Yields Add Momentum
The U.S. dollar index sits at 97.7, down on the month, while five-year TIPS yields dropped over 20 bps to their lowest since mid-2022, both of which are historically bullish for gold. Real rates are now projected to fall further into year-end as easing accelerates. With U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly pressing for lower interest rates, and markets already pricing three cuts before year-end, the environment for gold remains highly favorable. Treasury demand has weakened under this policy backdrop, redirecting flows into bullion as an alternative safe-haven hedge.
Technical Structure Points to $3,700 Breakout
On the technical side, gold remains firmly bullish. The 20-day EMA is trending higher at $3,518, while the RSI has surged to 80, bordering on overbought territory but consistent with strong momentum phases. Key resistance sits at $3,700, which if broken could open the path to $3,800 in the near term. Support lies first at $3,500 and deeper around $3,360, but each dip has been consistently absorbed by buyers this year. Year-on-year, gold has climbed from $2,529 in September 2024 to $3,685 now, a 45% gain. Over the past month alone, prices surged 9.4%, highlighting the sustained bid under current macro stress.
Global Demand Shifts and Consumer Channels Expand
Beyond institutions, retail and corporate participation has grown. In the U.S., consumer access through Costco (NASDAQ:COST) has gained traction as the retailer sells gold bars, silver coins, and platinum, broadening exposure for households looking to hedge inflation. In Asia, physical demand has stayed resilient even with higher prices, while in Europe, wealth managers are allocating mid-single-digit portfolio weights to bullion as a defensive anchor. Analysts stress that the current rally is not purely speculative but reflects broad structural allocation shifts.
The US dollar has rallied quite nicely during the trading session here on Friday, as we are now testing the 200 day EMA. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to stay in the same range that we’ve been in, with 146.50 yen on the bottom offering support and the 149 yen level on the top offering resistance. We’re basically just stuck in the middle here.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar is pulling back a bit, but I have to say out of the three charts, this is probably the most bullish looking chart. I didn’t think I would say that anytime soon because, quite frankly, the Australian dollar has been a major laggard. I would anticipate a pullback, maybe towards the 0.66 level, where, right around that area, I think you will start to see buyers come back in. Whether or not they can hold remains to be seen, but the Australian dollar rallying like this is a fresh new look because even when it was rallying for all those months against the US dollar, it was doing so very slowly, especially in comparison to other places like the British pound, the Canadian dollar, or even the euro.
So, with all of this, I have to ask questions of whether or not the Australian dollar is about to play catch up. We don’t know, but it certainly looks the most bullish of the three charts at the moment, which is a sudden change. 0.6550 level has been like magnet for price. So, we’ll have to see if that continues if we get a substantial pullback.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The confluence of the 20-Day moving average at $2.92 and the 50% retracement at $2.91 marks the first notable support area. This zone has contained declines over the past two days, and a bullish reversal could still trigger from here. If today’s low is broken, however, further downside levels come into focus, including the interim swing low at $2.87 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2.84. Both align with the midpoint line of the large descending channel highlighted on the chart.
Watching the Channel Boundaries
Natural gas continues to respect the structure of the descending channel. The center line was tested as support in March and as resistance in mid-August, and most recently, the upper quarter line capped the September 8 swing high. These repeated interactions reinforce the channel’s importance as a guide. If the 61.8% retracement fails to hold, the lower center line of the channel becomes the next downside target. Certainly, a drop below the Fibonacci level could unfold given the wide range weekly bullish engulfing candle that completed two weeks ago.
Bigger Picture Trend Signals
The break below the long-term uptrend line on August 11 remains a key bearish development. A subsequent rally into that line was rejected, confirming its role as resistance. While this suggests the larger downtrend may be reasserting itself, price action still needs to be assessed step by step as patterns develop. The current pullback could remain controlled if buyers defend support levels.
Weekly Chart Perspective
On the weekly chart, natural gas is set to close with a higher high and higher low, but still down for the week and below a long-term AVWAP around $2.96. This reflects short-term strength within a broader bearish bias. Heading into next week, a drop below this week’s low of $2.90 would confirm a one-week bearish reversal and keep pressure on towards lower support zones.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) rebounded to 1.1730 on Thursday as ECB President Christine Lagarde signalled the rate-cutting cycle may be over, lifting the single currency despite mixed US inflation and labour-market data.
Analysts expect EUR/USD to consolidate within the 1.1650–1.1750 range for now, with a sustained break above 1.18 only likely if the Fed accelerates rate cuts while the ECB holds firm.
EUR/USD Forecasts: Secure a Range Break?
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate briefly spiked higher after the latest US jobs data and then posted renewed gains as Lagarde’s hints of no further ECB rate cuts boosted the Euro.
EUR/USD advanced to 1.1730 from 1.1660 lows, but the question is whether the Euro can sustain gains and then break higher or whether the dollar will fight back again.
UoB commented; “Today, we expect EUR to trade in a range, most likely between 1.1675 and 1.1735.”
ING added; “For now, we are looking at a re-stabilisation in the 1.170-1.175 area in EUR/USD ahead of the weekend.”
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Scotiabank added; “We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1650 and 1.1750.”
Commerzbank commented on the overall EUR/USD outlook; “It is only when it becomes clear that the Fed will deliver further significant interest rate cuts in the coming months while the ECB shows no signs of lowering interest rates further, and Donald Trump continues to undermine the Fed’s independence, that we are likely to break through the 1.18 level on a sustained basis.”
US consumer prices increased 0.4% for August after a 0.2% increase previously and compared with consensus forecasts of a 0.3% increase with the year-on-year rate increasing to 2.9% from 2.7%.
Core prices increased 0.3% on the month with the year-on-year rate remaining at 3.1% with both figures in line with expectations.
Elsewhere, initial jobless claims surged to 263,000 in the latest week from 236,000 previously which was above expectations of 235,000 and the highest reading since June 2023.
Following the data market fully priced in three interest rate cuts by the end of 2025.
The potential for a 50 basis-point cut next week also ticked higher to around 12%.
Commerzbank is backing a 25 basis-point cut and on a short-term view added; “it is more likely that EUR/USD will continue to trade within the fairly narrow range of 1.16–1.18.”
ING commented; “relatively benign CPI data could give the go-ahead to re-enter USD shorts that might have been partly held back ahead of the release.”
The ECB held the deposit rate at 2.00% at the latest policy meeting which was in line with strong consensus forecasts.
There was a slight increase in the 2025 and 2026 inflation forecasts, but this was offset by a slight downward adjustment for 2027.
The bank provided little in the way of formal forward guidance.
Bank President Lagarde was, however, more positive on the outlook with comments that the risks to economic growth are now more balanced.
Lagarde also commented that the disinflation process was over. In response, traders are no longer backing further rate cuts by the ECB.
Some investment banks were still cautious.
Capital Economics Deputy Chief Euro-zone Economist Jack Allen-Reynolds; commented; “The bank is unlikely to change interest rates again this year, but we think the risks are skewed towards renewed cuts in 2026.”
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