The (ETHUSD) price continued its sideways trading in its last intraday levels, attempting to gain bullish momentum that might help it to rise, amid the continuation of the critical support level stability at $4,250, with the emergence of positive overlapping signals on the(RSI), after reaching oversold level, on the other hand, the price is under negative pressure that comes from its trading below EMA50, which prevents the price recovery in the previous session.
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Despite the attempts of the main indicators to provide positive momentum but the stability of the GBPJPY pair below the barrier at 200.40 obstacle the chances for resuming the bullish attack, which forces it to provide sideways trading, activating the expected bearish correctional track.
While gathering the negative momentum will make the price begin targeting the negative stations by its decline to 198.60, then attempts to press on the initial support at 197.85, while the price success in breaching the barrier and holding above it will turn the bullish scenario to begin achieving clear gains by its rally to 200.90 and 201.55.
The expected trading range for today is between 198.65 and 200.30
The (ETHUSD) price continued its sideways trading in its last intraday levels, attempting to gain bullish momentum that might help it to rise, amid the continuation of the critical support level stability at $4,250, with the emergence of positive overlapping signals on the(RSI), after reaching oversold level, on the other hand, the price is under negative pressure that comes from its trading below EMA50, which prevents the price recovery in the previous session.
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The EURGBP returned to fluctuate below 0.8700 level, forming extra barrier against the bullish attempts, which forces it to delay the bullish attack, and activating the attempts of gathering the gains by reaching 0.8650 facing 61.8%Fibonacci extension level.
Note that stochastic reach below 50 level will increase the negative intraday pressure on the price, which forces it to resume the correctional decline, to expect targeting 0.8625, then monitoring the price behavior due to the importance of this level by detecting the expected trend in the medium period trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.8625 and 0.8665
If the federal government’s Energy Information Administration prediction is correct, it doesn’t look good for the oil and gas industry as lower crude oil prices are anticipated in the coming months. It predicts as much as a $19-a-barrel plunge by early 2026.
The forecast was issued by the U.S. EIA in a short term prediction. The EIA believes crude oil prices will fall nearly $10 more a barrel by year’s end, slipping from an August average of $68 per barrel to $59 per barrel.
Prices will drop even further by 2026 and, according to the EIA, will hit about $50 a barrel by early in the year.
“Global oil prices. We expect the Brent crude oil price will decline significantly in the coming months, falling from $68 per barrel (b) in August to $59/b on average in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25) and around $50/b in early 2026. The price forecast is driven by large oil inventory builds as OPEC+ members increase production,” according to the EIA forecast.
“We expect global oil inventory builds will average more than 2 million barrels per day (b/d) from 3Q25 through 1Q26. We expect low oil prices in early 2026 will lead to a reduction in supply by both OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, moderating inventory builds later in 2026. We forecast the Brent crude oil price will average $51/b next year. We finalized this outlook before OPEC+ announced on September 7 that it plans to raise production by 137,000 b/d in October 2025.”
Gasoline prices. Falling oil prices in our forecast lead to a drop in gasoline prices. We expect the U.S. average retail price for regular-grade gasoline will average about $3.10 per gallon (gal) this year, down 20 cents/gal from last year. Retail gasoline prices in our forecast fall to an average of $2.90/gal in 2026, with the annual average price falling below $3.00/gal in all regions except the West Coast.
Gasoline expenditures. Driven by falling gasoline prices, U.S. drivers’ gasoline expenditures as a share of disposable personal income are likely to be the lowest since at least 2005—excluding the pandemic-affected year of 2020. We estimate expenditures will average less than 2% of disposable income this year, down from an average of 2.4% over the previous decade.
U.S. gasoline consumption. We now forecast a slight increase in U.S. gasoline consumption next year, the first STEO in which we have forecast an increase for 2026. The forecast for rising gasoline consumption is driven by an upward revision to the number of people of working age compared with our previous forecasts, and lower gasoline prices compared with our forecasts from earlier this year.
Natural gas prices. We expect the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will rise from an average of $2.91 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in August to $3.70/MMBtu in 4Q25 and $4.30/MMBtu next year. Rising natural gas prices reflect relatively flat natural gas production amid an increase in U.S. liquefied natural gas exports.
Natural gas and crude oil drilling. Due to rising natural gas prices and falling oil prices in 2026, we forecast that crude oil will trade at its lowest premium to natural gas since 2005. As a result, we expect drilling activity in the United States be more centered in natural gas-intensive producing regions in 2026. We expect U.S. natural gas production will be relatively flat next year compared with 2025, while we expect crude oil production will decline by about 1%.
Electricity generation. Electricity generation has been growing rapidly this year as a result of growing demand for power from data centers and industrial customers. We expect that total U.S. generation by the electric power sector will grow by 2.3% in 2025 and a further 3.0% next year. We expect that solar power will supply the largest share of the increase in both years.
GBP/USD moves sideways in a narrow channel above 1.3500.
The US Dollar holds its ground despite downward revision to employment data.
The pair faces a stiff resistance area at 1.3590-1.3600.
GBP/USD fluctuates above 1.3500 in the European session on Wednesday after posting small losses on Tuesday. The pair could attract technical buyers if it manages to clear the 1.3590-1.3600 resistance area.
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.05%
-0.22%
-0.55%
0.11%
-0.79%
-0.83%
-0.17%
EUR
-0.05%
-0.29%
-0.50%
0.05%
-0.83%
-0.83%
-0.22%
GBP
0.22%
0.29%
-0.32%
0.34%
-0.53%
-0.55%
0.07%
JPY
0.55%
0.50%
0.32%
0.58%
-0.28%
-0.44%
0.39%
CAD
-0.11%
-0.05%
-0.34%
-0.58%
-0.80%
-0.89%
-0.28%
AUD
0.79%
0.83%
0.53%
0.28%
0.80%
-0.00%
0.62%
NZD
0.83%
0.83%
0.55%
0.44%
0.89%
0.00%
0.62%
CHF
0.17%
0.22%
-0.07%
-0.39%
0.28%
-0.62%
-0.62%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) staged a rebound in the second half of the day and caused GBP/USD to turn south, as markets turned risk-averse on escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the preliminary benchmark revision showed that the total nonfarm employment in March 2025 was 911,000 less than initially reported. This announcement failed to convince markets of a large Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September and triggered a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ action in markets, helping the USD gather strength.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about an 8% probability of a 50 bps rate cut at next week’s policy meeting, compared to nearly 11% on Tuesday.
Later in the day, producer inflation data from the US will be watched closely by market participants. On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rise by 3.3% in August, matching July’s increase. For the month, the PPI is seen increasing by 0.3% following the 0.9% rise recorded in July.
The market reaction to the PPI data could be straightforward and short-lived ahead of Thursday’s key Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. A stronger-than-forecast increase in the monthly PPI could support the USD with the immediate reaction, while a soft print could weigh on the currency and help the risk mood improve, supporting GBP/USD in the American session.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart holds above 50 and GBP/USD continues to trade above the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact but lacks momentum.
On the upside, 1.3590-1.3600 (static level, round level) aligns as a key resistance area before 1.3640 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.3700 (static level, round level).
Looking south, support levels could be seen at 1.3500 (static level, 20-day SMA), 1.3465-1.3460 (50-day SMA, 100-day SMA, Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.3440 (200-day SMA).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Gold extends its rally to all-time highs above $3,650 amid broad-based USD weakness.
Investors’ fears of a sharp downward revision of US jobs are hurting the Dollar on Tuesday.
XAU/USD looks overstretched after rallying 10% in the last three weeks.
Gold keeps marching higher on Tuesday and has reached a fresh all-time high above $3,650. The pair, however, looks beyond overstretched after a 10% rally from August 20, with most timeframes heavily overbought, sending a severe warning for buyers.
The precious metal is drawing support from market expectations of a sharp cut in US employment figures at today’s BLS Benchmark Nonfarm Payrolls Revision, due later on the day. Market sources have flagged a slash of 800,000 jobs, which would add pressure on the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points next week.
Technical Analysis: XAU/USD is at strongly overbought levels
A look at the 4-hour chart and we see all the ingredients for a downwards correction. The Relative Strength Index, near the 80 level and showing a bearish divergence, suggests that the pair might need to come down before rallying further.
To the upside, immediate resistance is at the intraday high of $3,658. Further up, the 265.8% retracement of the September 3-4 reversal, at the $3,690 area, might be a plausible target ahead of the $3,700 round level.
A bearish reversal from these levels is likely to find support at the intra-day low of $3.630 ahead of the September 8 low, at $3580 and the September 4 low, at $3,515.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The (silver) price declined in its last intraday trading, affected by the stability of the critical resistance at $41.45, attempting to gain bullish momentum that might assist it to breach the resistance, and attempting to offload the clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels, amid the continuation of the positive pressure due to its trading above EMA50, and under the dominance of the main bullish trend and its trading alongside a minor bias line on the short term basis that supports this trend.
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Silver retreats as a modest rebound in the US Dollar and Treasury yields caps upside momentum.
Fed rate-cut expectations keep the broader bullish tone intact despite profit-taking.
Technicals show RSI bearish divergence; key support at $40.50, resistance at $41.70-42.00.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades under pressure on Tuesday, retreating from recent highs as a modest rebound in the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields weighs on the metal. At the time of writing, spot prices are trading near $40.85, down over 1% on the day.
The white metal has been trapped in a tight band between $41.50 and $40.50 since last week, after hitting a fresh 14-year peak around $41.67 on Monday. While the pullback reflects profit-taking and short-term USD strength, the downside remains limited as markets are almost fully convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates at its September 17 monetary policy meeting. Lower borrowing costs reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver, keeping the broader bullish tone intact.
The uptick in the Greenback comes despite the recent downward revision to US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which confirmed that the labor market is losing momentum. Economists highlighted that the slowdown reflects businesses turning cautious, with some warning that the economy is edging closer to recessionary conditions. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the currency against a basket of six peers, is trading around 97.70 after staging a technical rebound from seven-week lows touched earlier in the day.
Attention now turns to this week’s key inflation releases. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) will be published on Wednesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday, both of which are expected to shape expectations for the Fed’s policy outlook.
Technically, XAG/USD is struggling to extend its rally, with momentum indicators flashing caution. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is easing from overbought territory and showing bearish divergence, as price carved out higher highs while the oscillator printed lower highs. This divergence often precedes corrective pullbacks, highlighting fading upside momentum. The Average True Range (ATR) remains muted near 0.81, suggesting limited volatility in the short term, though a break outside the $41.50-$40.50 band could trigger a sharper move.
The first line of defense sits at $40.50, followed by the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $39.24. Deeper losses could target the 50-day SMA near $38.40. On the upside, a sustained move above $41.70 would reduce the significance of the divergence and open the door toward the $42.00 psychological barrier.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
EUR/USD fades its earlier move to multi-week tops near 1.1780.
The US Dollar regained upside impulse in response to prevailing risk-off trade.
The BLS revised down its payroll numbers by 911K to March 2025.
The Euro (EUR) gave back two days of gains on Tuesday, with EUR/USD sliding toward the 1.1720–1.1710 band. The pullback came as the US Dollar (USD) found fresh support on geopolitical jitters, even as markets continued to price in a 50 bps rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) at next week’s meeting.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded from seven-week lows, reclaiming the 97.70 zone, helped by a bounce in US Treasury yields across the curve.
Trade tensions ease but tariffs still bite
Washington and Beijing agreed to extend their trade truce for another 90 days, giving markets some breathing room. President Trump delayed planned tariff hikes until November 10, and China pledged to hold off as well. Still, most levies remain in place: US imports from China face 30% tariffs, while Chinese goods entering the US carry a 10% charge.
Washington also reached a new trade deal with Brussels. The EU agreed to lower tariffs on US industrial goods and give wider access to American farm and fisheries products. In return, Washington slapped a 15% tax on most European imports. Car tariffs could be next in line to come down, depending on upcoming EU legislation.
French politics fuel uncertainty
In Europe, politics grabbed the spotlight. French Prime Minister François Bayrou lost a confidence vote on Monday and formally resigned to President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday, reviving political uncertainty in the eurozone’s second-largest economy.
Fed keeps September cut in play
The Fed left rates unchanged at its last meeting, with Chair Jerome Powell noting risks in the labour market but pointing out that inflation is still running above target. That keeps a September cut firmly on the table.
The day’s standout data came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which said the economy added 911K fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than first estimated — a sign hiring was slowing even before Trump’s tariff push. Markets still expect a 25 bps cut at the September 16–17 meeting, though odds of a larger move are creeping higher.
ECB signals steady hand
The European Central Bank (ECB) struck a steady tone at its latest meeting. President Christine Lagarde described eurozone growth as “solid, if a little better,” hinting at little urgency to ease further. Markets expect the ECB to hold fire at its September 11 meeting and likely stay on pause through 2025, with the first cut not priced until spring 2026.
Traders trim Euro longs
CFTC data showed non-commercial net longs in the Euro easing to two-week lows near 119.6K contracts in the week to September 2. Institutional net shorts edged down to 171.3K, while open interest rose for a fourth straight week to around 846K contracts.
EUR/USD technical outlook
EUR/USD is still boxed into a broad 1.1400–1.1800 range. Resistance stands at the September high of 1.1779 (September 9), ahead of the weekly top at 1.1788 (July 24) and the 2025 ceiling at 1.1830 (July 1). A break higher could open the way to the September 2021 high at 1.1909, with the 1.2000 psychological level looming above.
On the downside, support is first seen at the short-term 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1532, before the August base at 1.1391 (August 1) and the weekly low at 1.1210 (May 29).
Momentum signals are giving mixed messages: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased back to 54, suggesting buyers are still in the game, while the Average Directional Index (ADX), just above 11, points to a trend that lacks real conviction.
EUR/USD daily chart
What’s next for EUR/USD?
For now, EUR/USD looks set to stay in consolidation mode. A breakout will likely need a fresh catalyst, whether from US data, a decisive Fed move, or another twist in Washington’s trade policy.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
