Platinum price returned to settle above $1382.00 level, increasing the efficiency of the bullish track, fluctuating near the initial target at $1400.00, the continuation of the attempts to provide positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of resuming the bullish attack, to expect its rally towards $1412.00, then attempts to press on the barrier near $1435.00.
While the price return to settle below $1382.00 will force it to delay the bullish attack and form new correctional waves, which forces it to suffer some of the losses before resuming the main bullish attack by reaching $1362.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1382.00 and $ 1412.00
Natural gas price ended the bullish correctional rally by testing the resistance at $3.210, then begin forming bearish waves, affected by the negativity of the indicators and providing negative momentum, to notice its stability near $3.100.
The continuation of facing negative pressures will confirm its surrender to the previously suggested scenario, to keep waiting for targeting $2.810 level, and breaking this barrier will extend the losses directly towards $2.620 reaching the next main target at $2.390.
The expected trading range for today is between $2.820 and $3.150
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate found support below 1.3500 on Monday and pushed towards 1.3540, helped by softer US bond yields and a weaker dollar index at 6-week lows. Analysts see Sterling locked in a near-term range, with momentum capped below 1.3590 ahead of the September Federal Reserve decision.
GBP/USD Forecasts: Range-Bound for Now
UoB said;
“Coming off the previous steep decline, the sharp rebound did not translate into a meaningful build-up in upward momentum. Overall, we view the current price movements as part of a broad range, likely between 1.3430 and 1.3595.”
Scotiabank echoed the range view;
“We look to a near-term range of 1.3480 and 1.3580.”
Both banks see a decisive break above 1.3590 as crucial for GBP/USD to build a stronger rally.
Save on Your GBP/USD Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
Weaker US jobs data last week reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut rates in September, with markets pricing a 10% chance of a larger 50-point cut.
MUFG commented;
“There is clear evidence that the US labour market deteriorated sharply after President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs announcement in April.”
Danske Bank was more cautious;
“While political pressure to accelerate policy easing inarguably complicates the outlook, we think risks are skewed towards slower, rather than faster, rate cuts given the risk of more persistent inflation.”
ING noted potential for a short-term dollar bounce;
“We think the US corporate tax payment deadline of 15 September could provide the dollar with some support this week. Seasonally, the dollar does OK in September. We suspect that the DXY could be driven a little higher this week, before a bearish switch into next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.”
UK fiscal pressures remain in focus after the sharp rise in gilt yields earlier this month.
Rabobank warned;
“Fixing bloated fiscal positions without clobbering the economy and simultaneously finding ways to finance spending priorities has become a policy paradox. Is it simply ‘too late’ to fix? Or can out of the box economic thinking still find a solution?”
Scotiabank’s Shaun Osborne noted some upside for Sterling sentiment after the cabinet reshuffle;
“Markets appear to be endorsing the change, and risk reversals in the options market are showing signs of a shift following their recent dramatic (bearish) turn.”
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
High risk warning:
Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.
Advisory warning:
investingLive is not an investment advisor, investingLive provides references and links to selected news, blogs and other sources of economic and market information for informational purposes and as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect’s individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and investingLive specifically hereby acknowledges clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided on an “as-is” basis as a general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice, and we do not purport to present the entire relevant or available public information with respect to a specific market or security. investingLive expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information, or with respect to any of the content presented within its website, nor its editorial choices.
Disclaimer:
investingLive may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) outlook is caught between European politics and US economic weakness this week.
The pair held above 1.1700 on Monday after last week’s weak jobs report, but traders remain cautious ahead of France’s no-confidence vote, which could trigger fresh elections.
While political risk clouds the Euro, the US labour market remains the dominant driver, with Fed rate cuts seen as inevitable and EUR/USD forecast to push higher into year-end.
EUR/USD Forecasts: The Rally Stalls
The French government confidence vote will be an important short-term issue, although the US economy is liable to remain dominant overall dollar moves.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has held above 1.1700 on Monday, but held below Friday’s 1.1750 peak triggered by another weak labour-market report.
Dollar sentiment remains weak on expectations of Fed rate cuts, but the French confidence vote has injected caution.
Save on Your EUR/USD Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
ING commented; “More volatility in a 1.1650-1.1750 range looks likely for EUR/USD this week, and we doubt Thursday’s ECB meeting will be a big market mover.”
Credit Agricole sees the risk of EUR/USD losses beyond 1.1650 if there are fresh elections.
MUFG is bearish on the dollar over the medium term; “Policy divergence between the ECB and Fed heading into year-end supports our forecast for EUR/USD to rise back above the 1.2000-level.”
The US labour market remains a key market focus following last week’s labour-market report.
MUFG added; “The Fed had already signalled it was becoming more concerned by downside risks to the US labour. Those concerns will have been heightened by the August employment report revealing that the US economy added only 22k jobs in August. More worrying for the Fed, the US economy lost -13k jobs in June after further downward revisions to prior months.”
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a Fed rate cut next week with a 10% chance of a 50 basis-point cut. Traders are also increasingly confident that rates will be cut three times before the end of 2025.
There is the potential for a further negative development on Tuesday with benchmark revisions.
ING noted; “Tomorrow sees the preliminary annual benchmark revision to the 2025 nonfarm payrolls report. A number in the -500 to 800k is expected. The Fed’s Christopher Waller implied a number of around -720k in his speech just over a week ago. A big downward revision to NFP could trigger some limited dollar weakness.”
The French government is facing a no-confidence vote on Monday with strong expectations that it will lose.
President Macron will have to decide between attempting to form another government or calling a general election.
The latest chatter suggests that Macron may attempt to forge a coalition with the socialists, although this would undermine attempts to curb the budget deficit.
ING sees limited scope for Euro-zone contagion; “we are not looking for a eurozone-wide period of stress. Italy and Spain have been enjoying sovereign upgrades recently, and the European Central Bank has its Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) if things really get out of hand.”
Credit Agricole does see Euro risks; “a new PM could leave the EUR struggling to hold on to its gains.”
MUFG commented; “We are not expecting the pick-up in political uncertainty in France to derail the euro’s current upward trend and/or encourage the ECB to cut rates further at the current juncture.”
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
The US Dollar extended the tepid employment data-inspired slump.
The United States will publish fresh inflation data in the upcoming days.
XAU/USD trades near fresh all-time highs with the bullish bias intact.
Gold prices reached fresh record highs on Monday, with the bright metal extending its rally beyond the $3,630 mark. It currently trades not far below an intraday peak of $3,646.41, as investors keep dropping the US Dollar (USD). The Greenback’s selling spiral was triggered by a tepid Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which showed the country added a modest 22K new jobs in August. The country added 79K in July, and lost 12K in June, making it a third consecutive discouraging report.
Tepid job creation pretty much confirmed the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates when it meets next week, with market participants even increasing bets for a larger interest rate cut of 50 basis points (bps).
During the upcoming days, the United States (US) will publish inflation-related figures. The July Producer Price Index (PPI) will be out on Wednesday, while the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be out on Thursday. The latter is foreseen at 2.9% YoY, higher than the 2.7% posted in July. The core annual reading is expected to remain steady at 3.1%. Also on Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its decision on monetary policy. The ECB is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold this time.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows that bulls are in full control despite overbought conditions. Technical indicators head firmly north at extreme levels, without signs of changing course anytime soon. At the same time, the pair is developing above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) gaining upward traction above the 100 and 200 SMAs.
The near-term picture also skews the risk to the upside. The 4-hour chart shows that technical indicators keep heading higher within overbought readings, partially losing their upward strength but still aiming north. At the same time, a bullish 20 SMA stands at around $3,571, which is well above the longer ones, reflecting the latest run to record highs. Corrective declines should now find buyers around $3,600 for the bullish trend to remain alive.
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged higher at the start of the week, as the fallout from Friday’s weak US payrolls report continued to weigh on the Greenback.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3522, up around 0.2% from Monday’s opening level.
The US Dollar (USD) remained under pressure on Monday as investors continued to absorb Friday’s disappointing non-farm payroll release.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed just 22,000 jobs were added in August, compared to forecasts of 73,000. Adding to the gloom, June’s figure was revised lower to show a loss of 13,000 jobs.
The data has reinforced fears that the US labour market is rapidly losing momentum and fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve will have to accelerate its easing cycle.
Markets are now pricing in rate cuts totalling at least 75 basis points, while odds of a 50bps move this month have climbed to around 10%.
Sterling was largely stable at the start of the week, with investors showing little reaction to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s cabinet reshuffle following the departure of Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner.
Save on Your GBP/USD Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
Concerns over fiscal stability were eased somewhat by the decision to retain Rachel Reeves as Chancellor, which may also have helped limit volatility in the bond market after last week’s turbulence.
Meanwhile, lingering expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts helped underpin the Pound.
GBP/USD Forecast: Payroll Revisions to Drive Fresh Dollar Losses?
Looking forward, the release of the annual revision to non-farm payrolls on Tuesday could put the US Dollar back under heavy pressure.
Early estimates suggest payrolls for 2025 may be revised down by as much as 800,000, which would deal another blow to confidence in the strength of the US jobs market. Such a result could prompt traders to ramp up bets on a larger Fed rate cut this month.
That said, the Dollar may find some support as investors turn their attention towards this week’s US inflation report.
With no significant UK data scheduled over the next couple of days, Sterling’s movements are likely to remain largely dictated by global sentiment and shifts in Dollar demand.
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.
GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling clings to bullish stance to start week
GBP/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.3500 after rising more than 0.5% on Friday. The pair remains technically bullish in the short term.
Growing expectations for multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts following the disappointing August labor market data weighed heavily on the US Dollar (USD) heading into the weekend. Read more…
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Focus remains on stagflation and the BoE
In quite turbulent past few days for the Pound Sterling, GBP/USD eventually managed to close the week with decent gains above the key 1.3500 figure, reversing at the same time two weekly retracements in a row.
While the cautious stance from the Bank of England (BoE) continues to lend some cushion to the currency, speculation that a potential stagflationary scenario could be brewing raised extra concerns among market participants and seems to keep occasional bullish attempts contained. Read more…
Gold consolidates Friday’s record rally to $3,600 early Monday amid risk-off flows.
US Dollar recovers from the Nonfarm Payrolls-led blow; Fed rate cut bets could limit its upswing.
Heavily overbought RSI on the daily chart indicates buyers’ exhaustion as focus shifts to US CPI inflation this week.
Gold is hanging close to the all-time high of $3,600 in Asian trading on Monday, in the aftermath of awful US labor data for August released on Friday.
Gold pauses its record run ahead of US inflation test
Despite the latest pullback from record highs, Gold buyers retain control amid sustained dovish expectations surrounding the US Federal Reserve (Fed), lingering Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions, and additional Gold buying by China’s central bank last month.
The August US jobs report underscored the fourth consecutive month of weak hiring, cementing a 25 basis points (bps) Fed interest rate cut later this month.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed Friday that the headline US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 22,000, far below forecasts of 75,000, while the Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.3%, the highest level since late 2021.
Additionally, Russia carried out its biggest air strike of the war on Ukraine over the weekend. In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the barrage of drones and missiles left four people dead and caused widespread damage across the north, south and east of the country, per Reuters.
Furthermore, the official data showed on Sunday that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added Gold to its reserves in August, extending purchases of bullion into a 10th straight month.
However, Gold buyers turn cautious amid renewed US Dollar upswing, led by a steep surge in the USD/JPY pair after the Japanese Yen (JPY) tumbled on the domestic political instability.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stepped down from his position on Sunday, following a string of election defeats that stripped his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of its majority in both houses of Parliament.
A slowdown in Chinese imports in August raised concerns over the dragon nation’s economic prospects, threatening the Gold price upside. China is the world’s top yellow metal consumer.
Looking ahead, traders could resort to liquidating their Gold long trades, repositioning before the critical US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data due later in the week.
The inflation data will help confirm whether the Fed will deliver a jumbo rate cut this month.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Technically, Gold could see a brief corrective decline as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in a heavily overbought zone. The leading indicator is currently near 76.
Any pullback in Gold could challenge the initial support at the $3,550 psychological level, below which the September 4 low of $3,511 will be tested.
A sustained break below the latter will open up a fresh downside toward this month’s low of 3,437.
However, the Bull Cross of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA could keep bargain hunting alive.
If buyers regain poise, the next topside barrier is seen at the $3,600 psychological mark/ record high. Further north, all eyes will be on the $3,650 figure.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
