– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Rate JUMPS as FED to Pause After Today’s Rate Cut

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) rallied to 1.33828 on Wednesday after the Fed cut rates by 25bps but signalled a higher bar for further easing, according to Wells Fargo. “The FOMC reduced the fed funds target range and signaled that additional easing will face a higher bar at its next meeting.”

Despite hawkish dissents, Wells Fargo notes the Fed still maintains an easing bias into 2025, with its policy-rate outlook unchanged. “The Committee maintains an easing bias, with the median 2025 rate unchanged at 3.375%.”

The bank expects the Fed to slow, not end, the easing cycle. “We continue to look for two more 25bps cuts next year.”

Wells Fargo adds that new reserve-management purchases are technical only. “RMPs will have no bearing on our view of the stance of monetary policy.”

PRE-FED:

GBP/USD found some support below 1.3300 and is trading around 1.3320 with a firm dollar limiting scope for any fresh advance.

The Federal Reserve policy decision is likely to be crucial for near-term direction with choppy trading and potential short-term dollar gains if the Fed is cautious over the scope for 2026 rate cuts.

Although noting the potential for dollar gains after the Fed decision, ING added; “but the release of what should be soft jobs data next week and seasonal December weakness suggest that today’s dollar rally might not last.

According to UoB; “today, there is scope for GBP to test 1.3265 before a recovery can be expected. Based on the current momentum, a clear break below this level is unlikely. On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.3330 and 1.3355.

IG Group commented; “The early September low at $1.33 is now being fought over, but a close above here helps to reinforce the bullish view.”

There are very strong expectations that the Fed will cut rates later on Wednesday by a further 25 basis points to 3.75% with the main focus on the policy outlook.

ING commented; “The big focus will be the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the number of dissenters against the 25bp cut, and then Chair Powell’s press conference.”

BNY Americas macro strategist John Velis commented; “The post-meeting press conference could be – as always – a wild card.”

There is the risk of relatively hawkish comments from Chair Powell and some dissents against the December decision to cut rates.

MUFG commented; “Given the divisions over the outlook it will be difficult for Powell to send a strong message of pause but no doubt by reaching a consensus the message will certainly be that the Fed have been pro-active and can now assess incoming data.”

Some members will also be reluctant to forecast further significant cuts for next year.

BNY’s Velis added; During recent FOMC pressers, Chair Powell’s tone has often departed from the actual policy action taken or the statement accompanying that action. We could easily see a rate cut, a dovish set of dots, and a somewhat hawkish qualitative assessment at Wednesday’s press conference.”

ING commented; “While all the above sounds dollar positive, it is also widely expected. And perhaps it is still a surprise that the rates market still has so much easing priced in. Presumably, this is the Kevin Hassett effect, where his arrival at the Fed in February can throw a dovish cloak over the FOMC outlook.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Price Forecast: GBP Steady with “Dots to Dictate Reaction”

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) traded steadily above $1.33 on Wednesday as markets positioned themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of the year.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading near $1.3310, almost unchanged from the start of the session.

The US Dollar (USD) was muted through Wednesday’s European trade as investors assessed the likely outcome of the Federal Reserve’s evening policy announcement.

Expectations around a December rate cut have swung sharply in recent weeks, but market consensus has now solidified around a 25-basis-point reduction.

With the move largely priced in, attention has shifted to what may come next. Forward guidance from the Fed still holds the potential to move the Dollar, especially if Chair Jerome Powell strikes a firmer tone, as he did following October’s meeting.

According to Scotiabank, “After USD gains earlier this week and markets perhaps expecting a (mildly) “hawkish cut” today, traders are poorly positioned for messaging that leans somewhat dovish.

“After a 25bps cut today, swaps do not have another rate cut fully priced in until mid-2026.

“Beyond the rate decision, forecasts and the dots will dictate the market’s reaction.

“No changes are expected in the median dot for the next few years.

“The consensus does expect a mild nudge lower for the long-term median (i.e., terminal rate) dot to 3%, however, which would align a little closer to current market thinking.”

Traders will also parse the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Should policymakers maintain guidance for just one rate cut in 2026, compared with market expectations for at least two, the US Dollar could receive renewed support.

The Pound (GBP) treaded water on Wednesday, with the absence of UK economic data leaving Sterling without a clear catalyst.

Price action was largely guided by broader market sentiment, with traders hesitant to establish strong positions ahead of the Fed’s announcement.

This caution kept the Pound rangebound, contributing to the subdued tone across GBP/USD markets.

GBP/USD Forecast: Modest UK GDP Uptick to Provide Limited Support?

Beyond the Fed decision, focus will shift to the UK’s upcoming GDP release for October.

Economists expect the data to show the economy returning to growth for the first time since June, although only by around 0.1%. Such a muted rebound may provide limited support for Sterling and could instead reinforce concerns over the UK’s lacklustre economic trajectory.

Weak growth prospects would likely strengthen expectations of a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut next week, potentially limiting GBP upside.

On the US front, the Dollar may encounter headwinds on Thursday if initial jobless claims point to a larger-than-expected rise in early December, adding weight to the argument for a more accommodative Fed.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Fed LIVE: Test for Pound Sterling Bulls, GBP/USD Dependent on Dip Buyers?

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has found some support below 1.3300 and is trading around 1.3320 with a firm dollar limiting scope for any fresh advance.

The Federal Reserve policy decision is likely to be crucial for near-term direction with choppy trading and potential short-term dollar gains if the Fed is cautious over the scope for 2026 rate cuts.

Although noting the potential for dollar gains after the Fed decision, ING added; “but the release of what should be soft jobs data next week and seasonal December weakness suggest that today’s dollar rally might not last.

According to UoB; “today, there is scope for GBP to test 1.3265 before a recovery can be expected. Based on the current momentum, a clear break below this level is unlikely. On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.3330 and 1.3355.

IG Group commented; “The early September low at $1.33 is now being fought over, but a close above here helps to reinforce the bullish view.”

There are very strong expectations that the Fed will cut rates later on Wednesday by a further 25 basis points to 3.75% with the main focus on the policy outlook.

ING commented; “The big focus will be the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the number of dissenters against the 25bp cut, and then Chair Powell’s press conference.”

BNY Americas macro strategist John Velis commented; “The post-meeting press conference could be – as always – a wild card.”

There is the risk of relatively hawkish comments from Chair Powell and some dissents against the December decision to cut rates.

MUFG commented; “Given the divisions over the outlook it will be difficult for Powell to send a strong message of pause but no doubt by reaching a consensus the message will certainly be that the Fed have been pro-active and can now assess incoming data.”

Some members will also be reluctant to forecast further significant cuts for next year.

BNY’s Velis added; During recent FOMC pressers, Chair Powell’s tone has often departed from the actual policy action taken or the statement accompanying that action. We could easily see a rate cut, a dovish set of dots, and a somewhat hawkish qualitative assessment at Wednesday’s press conference.”

ING commented; “While all the above sounds dollar positive, it is also widely expected. And perhaps it is still a surprise that the rates market still has so much easing priced in. Presumably, this is the Kevin Hassett effect, where his arrival at the Fed in February can throw a dovish cloak over the FOMC outlook.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on December 10, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Neutral.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1590 – 1.1520 – 1.1470.
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1680 – 1.1760 – 1.1820.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1540 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1480.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1740 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1800.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

Dear reader, as observed in market performance, the EUR/USD pair is showing stability within a short-term ascending triangle pattern, with the price currently testing the horizontal resistance level at the psychological mark of 1.1650. This chart pattern typically signals bullish continuation, suggesting the possibility of an upward breakout. The EUR/USD is trading around the 1.1645 level, hovering just below the resistance area that has capped gains since late November.

A decisive break above this ceiling could lead to a measured ascent equal to the height of the triangle pattern, targeting the 1.1750 level or higher. This would confirm a shift in momentum and restore buyer control over the market. However, if the resistance holds, the EUR/USD pair may retreat to test support levels within the triangle. The ascending trend line, which connects the pair’s lows since mid-November, lies around the 1.15500 support level, coinciding with the dynamic support of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day SMA. Technically, these moving averages have recently converged and begun to flatten, reflecting market indecision.

Meanwhile, the convergence of the 100- and 200-period SMAs suggests that a breakout in either direction could determine the next move for the currency pair. A bounce off the trend line support would keep the triangle intact and pave the way for another attempt to break above the top. The Stochastic oscillator is currently hovering in the middle, showing neither strong buying nor selling pressure. The oscillator has room to rise towards overbought territory, which could support a potential upside if resistance is broken.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in neutral territory around the 50 level, allowing for movement in either direction. An upward move would indicate strengthening bullish momentum, while a decline might suggest that sellers are successfully defending the resistance zone.

Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp trader, be cautious. The EUR/USD pair may be affected by the eagerly awaited FOMC decision today, where the Federal Reserve is expected to cut US interest rates, perhaps signaling a more cautious pace for future monetary policy easing.

Euro/Dollar Trading Influenced by the Future of ECB Policies

According to Forex currency market trades, a “hawkish” bias in Eurozone interest rate expectations is supporting the EUR/USD exchange rate. In this context, an influential European Central Bank (ECB) official stated that she is comfortable with current market bets that the Eurozone central bank’s next move will be a rate hike. Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB Governing Council, stated in an interview earlier this week that “markets and survey participants expect the next step to be a rate hike, even if it is not soon. I am quite comfortable with this expectation.”

Jana Randow, who conducted the interview with Schnabel for Bloomberg, said she was “surprised by the ‘hawkish’ nature of her stance.” She added: “Of course, we knew she had these ideas, but hearing her be so explicit that the next move will likely be a rate hike… was certainly news we didn’t expect from her.”

Across reliable trading platforms, the surprise was reflected in Eurozone bond yields outperforming US and UK bond yields, mirroring the shift in expectations regarding the ECB’s interest rate policy. Expectations for the ECB’s rate path have risen.

Technically, the euro/dollar exchange rate reached a resistance level of 1.1672 and is maintaining its gains this December, remaining above its key 55-day moving average. The recent weakness of the US dollar is not the only factor supporting the euro against the dollar. Last week, Germany boosted the euro when German factory orders rose 1.5% in October, five times the market expectation of 0.3%, and September’s reading was revised upwards from 1.1% to 2.0%.

French industrial production also surprised expectations, exceeding forecasts with a 0.2% increase compared to the anticipated 0.1% decline. Spanish output rose 0.7%, surpassing expectations of 0.5%. Overall, the strong growth trajectory and persistently high inflation reinforce Schnabel’s argument for keeping interest rates unchanged.

Regarding the future of monetary policy, with the US Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates today, the divergence in interest rate policies between the US and the Eurozone will continue to strengthen the euro against the US dollar.

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